Will Marc-Andre Fleury be the Last Goaltender to 500 Wins?
The Marc-Andre Fleury appreciation train continues to chug across the league. With three Stanley Cup rings, a Vezina Trophy, and more than 1,000 regular season games, there’s little left for the 39-year-old to achieve. Speculation that his 20th NHL season will be his last has followed the beloved goaltender. Forever youthful, acrobatic and smiling like a butcher’s dog, Fleury’s had a remarkable run.
Yes, the man has endured. World Junior heartbreak. Number one overall pick pressure. Post-season flops. A heartbreaking exit from Pittsburgh. A nomadic twilight. Through it all, he’s not only survived, but thrived. ‘Flower’ has tirelessly battled his way to a Hall of Fame career.
He’s a member of the exclusive 500-win club, a French Canadian trio of warriors — Martin Brodeur (691), Fleury (552), and Patrick Roy (551). With the role of the modern goaltender changing radically in the last decade, Fleury may be the last of his kind. So, today we ask the question: Will a goaltender ever win 500 games again?
The Trends
The days of penciling in Brodeur for 70 starts are extinct. Young goaltenders are eased into the league, coached methodically and deployed strategically to maximize performance. A past generation might say coddled, overcoached, and unreliable. To each their own. No matter your stance, contemporary starting goalies play less hockey, and therefore, have fewer opportunities to bank wins.
Let’s see this trend in action.
While the league average ebbs and flows, the direction is crystal clear. As recently as 2001-02, an average No. 1 goaltender appeared in 61 games — 75% of the schedule. Just seven years ago (2016-17), starters averaged 57 outings.
Fast forward to last season. We’re down to 49 appearances. That’s a 60/40 split of the starter vs. anyone else guarding the gilded gazebo. Last season’s Vezina winner, Linus Ullmark, cruised to the award and started only 48 games.
It’s safe to say Glenn Hall’s 502 consecutive games record is holding up just fine, thanks.
The new generation does have one major edge, though. Since 2005-06 and the death of the tie game, one goalie is always guaranteed to leave the ice with a win. This helps offset playing fewer games. Still, the 1A/1B approach to modern crease management has limited all but a handful of studs from the requisite 60+ outings needed to earn all-time win totals.
The Candidates
Let’s dive in to find the most likely future members of the 500-win fraternity. Delightful as he is, there are no 5-foot-5 Darren Pangs today. The position is loaded with large and limber athletes. And perhaps the lighter workloads will extend some careers. Here’s the active wins list.
Now, 500 wins is a lot. When a goalie debuts, they can pick their poison to join the club:
- Average 36 wins for 14 seasons? Only five guys won 35 last year!
- Average 30 wins for 17 seasons? That assumes someone can hold a starting gig for 17 years.
- Average 25 wins for 20 seasons? Well, only six goalies in 106 years have appeared in 20 seasons.
Clearly, there’s no easy road. To guide us, we’re going to use a fun tool developed by baseball statistical godfather, Bill James, his “Favorite Toy.” It’s a simplified method to predict final career totals, using a player’s age, current total, and last three years of weighted results. Only 11 active goalies have a non-zero chance at 500 wins. Let’s see who could join Fleury… if they have a full career.
Coin Toss (40% to 60%)
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Age: 29; Projected Wins: 511; Odds: 55%
The two-time Cup winner is the prototype for 500 wins. A starter at 22, he led the NHL in wins a stunning five consecutive seasons and is cozy playing a lot. A pessimist would argue he just had serious back surgery, the Lightning have gray in their beards, and Vasilevskiy has been pretty ordinary since returning. That’s what make 500 wins so difficult. Even a near-perfect career start can get slowed down through health or franchise cycle. Still, Vasi is the frontrunner.
Connor Hellebuyck
Age: 30; Projected Wins: 501; Odds: 50%
The mid-season Vezina choice, Hellebuyck is somehow already 30 years old. But with 261 wins, you can squint and see 500. Coming off 37 victories and on pace to better that mark this year, he’s locked in with the Jets for another seven seasons. If Winnipeg can stay competitive and their star goalie elite, Hellebuyck will be in the mix. He’s at even money in the projection.
Possible (20% to 40%)
Alexandar Georgiev
Age: 27; Projected Wins: 431; Odds: 31%
A bit of a surprise, but Georgie Boy has some factors in his favor. He’s only 27, he led the NHL in wins last season (40) and he’s tops in the category again (27) on the high-octane Avs. With only one above average season under his belt, Georgiev needs to find another gear to last the next decade.
Sergei Bobrovsky
Age: 35; Projected Wins: 480; Odds: 30%
Bobrovsky is a fascinating case. A steady goalie on a competitive team, he needs “only” 117 wins. But — and it’s a Sidney Crosby-sized butt — he’ll be 36 when training camp rolls around, his $70-million whopper of a contract has just two seasons left, and he temporarily lost his crease to a 21-year-old and a journeyman last year.
Long Shots (20% or less)
Juuse Saros: Age: 28; Projected Wins: 403; Odds: 20%
Jake Oettinger: Age: 25; Projected Wins: 362; Odds: 15%
Igor Shesterkin: Age: 28; Projected Wins: 367; Odds: 14%
Thatcher Demko: Age: 28; Projected Wins: 346; Odds: 9%
Linus Ullmark: Age: 27; Projected Wins: 322; Odds: 0.4%
Jeremy Swayman: Age: 25; Projected Wins: 291; Odds: 0.3%
While Saros has quietly started the most games over the last three seasons, there are some red flags. One, he’s the NHL’s smallest goalie (yes, 5’11” is a shrimp today for goalies). And Nashville isn’t topping the country music charts any time soon, locked into a perennial middle-of-the-pack phase.
Oettinger, still a pup at 25, has 400+ wins to go. Shesterkin and Demko only recently passed 100 wins in their age-28 seasons. So we can’t get too excited about any of them. Ullmark and Swayman? Their odds are as low as John Tortorella and Larry Brooks forming a pickleball team in retirement.
The Future
Sports science tells us preserving our greatest athletes is the long-term play. Hard to argue. Many workhorses swing by the glue factory much too early. Times change. Positions evolve. Major League Baseball has likely seen its last pitcher win 300 games. And while the projections collectively say at least one active goaltender should win 500 games, there are no guarantees.
A major injury or early retirement and the odds of the few viable candidates above drop to zero overnight. First-ballot Hall of Famers Roberto Luongo (489 wins) and Henrik Lundqvist (459) fell short. Both played in the shootout era and rarely missed a start. One-time phenom Carey Price (361) never came close.
Marc-Andre Fleury won his first NHL game at age 19. His last is likely to come at 39. Whether any goaltender joins him with 500 wins, it’s safe to say no, they don’t make them like Fleury anymore.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com
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