Peters: Projecting Team USA’s 2022 Beijing Olympic Roster – Version 3

The next month is critical in whether or not NHL players will be participating in the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, which are scheduled to begin on Feb. 4. Jan. 10 is the last day the NHL and NHLPA can pull the plug on this whole thing and as our own Frank Seravalli reported this week, the situation is tenuous.

Preparations for what the teams would look like if NHL players are in fact going to Beijing continue unabated, however. Though USA Hockey has never formally announced Bill Guerin as officially the replacement general manager for Stan Bowman, it appears that things are operating as if Guerin will be in charge. USA Hockey still has its advisory group that essentially includes all, or at least most of the American GMs from around the league, so there’s still a lot of decisions by committee.

As my colleague Steve Greeley pointed out in his Canada roster projection this week, these decision makers are trying to build teams that can play in the highest-pressure situations. While I’d love to see a team try and send all of their best scorers and see what happens, I don’t think either of the North American clubs are going to subscribe to that kind of philosophy. They still want players that can make things uncomfortable for the opposition in terms of defensive play and/or physicality.

I tried to reflect this in my most recent projection. I also included some players on the periphery that are worth knowing based on some of what we’ve been hearing in recent weeks.

Sources have indicated that the U.S. is looking for balance in their forward group, as opposed to just loading up on scoring. So I’ve tweaked things up just a bit at this stage. I figure I’ll have one more crack at putting one of these together and hopefully we get a little closer each time.

Keep in mind, this is what I think would happen and not what I personally would prefer to see happen with the roster.

Forwards

1. Auston Matthews*
2. Patrick Kane*
3. Johnny Gaudreau
4. Matthew Tkachuk
5. Kyle Connor
6. Alex DeBrincat
7. J.T. Miller
8. Dylan Larkin
9. Joe Pavelski
10. Max Pacioretty
11. Jake Guentzel
12. T.J. Oshie
13. Chris Kreider
14. Blake Coleman

Out: Brady Tkachuk, Brock Nelson

In: T.J. Oshie, Blake Coleman

In the mix: Brady Tkachuk, Brock Nelson, Alex Iafallo, Andrew Copp, Brock Boeser, Joel Farabee

In thinking about some of what I’ve heard about USA’s desires to look at players with some more experience in lower-lineup roles, Brady Tkachuk’s name is one I centered on as a player that might end up on the outside looking in. While Brady is big, strong and physical and maybe more adept to playing a depth role, I’m not 100 percent certain the U.S. staff feels the same way. Brady Tkachuk is a top-line player for the Senators and he’s not going to be that for Team USA. Then there’s the experience factor, which I think comes in even more.

I think USA’s staff may lean on some of the more proven commodities when it comes to going into this tournament. T.J. Oshie has done it on the big stage before, has the versatility to play in a depth role and gives the U.S. the strength, tenacity, experience and scoring depth it could covet. I still think Tkachuk checks a lot of boxes and if it were me picking the team, I’d rather have both Tkachuk boys to rile up the opposition. Oshie has an iconic Olympic moment and a Stanley Cup, which may speak more to the GMs. There’s not a ton of championship experience up front at this point.

I’ve also heard that the U.S. brass is looking to find players that can fit into specific roles, particularly players that are more comfortable and experienced in depth roles, penalty killing, playing tough matchups and bringing some physicality.

I think that puts players like Blake Coleman more firmly in the mix, especially having been a valued depth player on back-to-back Stanley Cup teams. Others that come to mind as potential options are Alex Iafallo, Andrew Copp and Nick Bonino, who both head coach Mike Sullivan and GM Bill Guerin are familiar with from Pittsburgh’s Stanley Cup years.

I had Coleman’s inclusion knocking Nelson out of contention, but that may not be the case. I could see both going to the tournament as PK specialists that can also provide some down-the-lineup scoring pop. I just think USA is going to want experience where they can get it, which makes it harder to knock out guys like Max Pacioretty and Joe Pavelski.

You may also notice no Troy Terry on this most recent roster projection. As far as I can tell, he was never part of the long list teams had to submit weeks ago. That list puts all of the players in the Olympic selection pool so that they can be included in World Anti-Doping Agency testing protocol. It is my understanding that if you’re not on that list, you can’t be added later as I’m guessing Sweden has found out after trying to get Lucas Raymond onto their long list after submitting it without him on there. Every indication I have gotten is that teams are going to have to go with who was on the list and cannot deviate.

Defense

1. Adam Fox
2. Jaccob Slavin
3. Charlie McAvoy
4. Zach Werenski
5. Seth Jones*
6. Ryan McDonagh
7. John Carlson
8. Brett Pesce

In: Brett Pesce

Out: Quinn Hughes

In the mix: Quinn Hughes, Brian Dumoulin, John Marino, Jacob Trouba

As I’ve been saying for a while, I think the defense has been largely set for this team for a while, but a name that has been popping up more and more of late is Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Brian Dumoulin. The big blueliner could make the team at the bottom of its defensive lineup due to his experience with coach Mike Sullivan, as well as Guerin’s familiarity with him from their time in Pittsburgh. I don’t know if Dumoulin fits the same as some other players, but he would give the team another left-shot shutdown option.

I think seven of the eight spots for this roster are almost as good as finalized, assuming all of the players agree to go to Beijing. I can’t see any scenario where the team isn’t bringing Seth Jones, who is already named to the team, along with Adam Fox, Charlie McAvoy, Jaccob Slavin, Zach Werenski and Ryan McDonagh. Then I believe pretty strongly that John Carlson’s Olympic and Stanley Cup experience lock him in.

If I were building Team USA, I’d want Quinn Hughes on my team. Full stop. I think he’s too dynamic, has the ability to break games and would thrive even more with a strong partner. But since I’m not the GM and only trying to get inside the GM’s head, I think he may be out. With players that can produce like Werenski, Fox and Carlson already there, I think the U.S. may end up wanting to go with size and defensive prowess further down the lineup.

While Dumoulin’s name was floated, another I’ve heard plenty is Brett Pesce, whom I’ve been trying to find a way to squeeze onto this roster as a high-end defender and PK stalwart. Well, this is that week. I could see USA’s coaches going with what they’re more familiar with and putting Dumoulin on the team as we’re starting to hear a bit more. But to me, Pesce is one of the best pure defenders in the league. Dumoulin is a left-shot, Pesce is a right shot, so you’d have to figure out how prominently handedness factors into the decision, but I think familiarity and built-in trust with the coaching may win the day. Still, I think Pesce remains in the mix.

Goalies

1. John Gibson
2. Connor Hellebuyck
3. Jack Campbell

In: Jack Campbell

Out: Thatcher Demko

In the mix: Thatcher Demko, Jonathan Quick

I don’t think there’s any doubt about who No. 1 and No. 2 are, only that the order very well could be flipped. You can ask me on various days and I might change my answer when it comes down to Gibson or Hellebuyck. The third goalie remains the trickiest position.

I had heard that Jonathan Quick’s name has been bandied about again, too. He does have a .931 save percentage and two shutouts in 14 appearances this season and has looked good. I believe he was still on the long list for this team. I just don’t know how eager Quick would be to go to Beijing and be the No. 3 guy after having already been an Olympian, but you never know.

Quick’s former understudy, Jack Campbell, looks to be the most deserving candidate at this point. He has the third best save percentage in the NHL of any goalie at a sparkling .935. The third goalie probably should not occupy a ton of the management group’s time and thinking, but when it’s as tight a race as this one, you’ve got to try to get it right.

Thatcher Demko still deserves to be in the mix and should still get a lot of consideration for being the third goalie. He’s performed decently well in a terrible situation this year. Also, his only playoff experience went really well. That will help his cause, but I don’t know if it seals it for him.

Potential Line Combinations

Connor – Matthews – Kane
Gaudreau – Larkin – Tkachuk
Guentzel – Miller – Oshie
Kreider – Coleman – Pavelski
Extras: Pacioretty/ DeBrincat

Slavin – Fox
Werenski – McAvoy
McDonagh – Jones
Extras: Carlson/Pesce

Starter: John Gibson
Backup: Connor Hellebuyck
Third: Jack Campbell