10 breakout NHL players for 2023-24

Credit: Rasmus Sandin (© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)

Breaking out. If you’re doing so, you’re breaking free of something that was holding you back. In a sports context, that could be a coach, your playing time, an injury, your own attitude and work ethic and so on.

When we discuss breakout candidates for this NHL season, then? It’s best to look at players with a couple seasons under their belts. Rookies or even sophomores haven’t been around long enough for anything to truly hold them back. My list of 2023-24 breakout candidates thus includes players who’ve competed and underwhelmed long enough to beg the question, “Is it ever going to happen for him?”

With that, here are 10 breakout candidates to watch this season.

(And for you fantasy hockey fiends out there: this is a non-fantasy list, just so we’re clear.)

Quinton Byfield, Los Angeles Kings

Think about what Tim Stutzle is doing with the Ottawa Senators right now. Then let it sink in that he was the No. 3 prospect, not even No. 2 prospect, in his draft year. Scouts drooled over Byfield’s toolbox. His skill in a hulking power forward body inspired them to throw out comparisons like Eric Lindros and Ryan Getzlaf. Byfield was also considered raw as a prospect even at the peak of his hype, however, and saw only six games of NHL action the year after he was drafted. And his 2021-22 campaign couldn’t get off the ground because he broke his ankle in a pre-season game.

Last season, Byfield finally stuck as a full-time NHLer, and he formed a line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe that was low-key dominant. With that trio on the ice at 5-on-5, the Kings outscored opponents 31-11 and outchanced them 237-184. Before you go assuming Byfield road Kopitar and Kempe’s coattails: Kempe and Kopitar were outscored 21-18 last season when not playing with Byfield. He was a nice fit on that line and holds down the same spot entering 2023-24. Byfield’s contributions didn’t really show up on the scoresheet, but he did enjoy one hot stretch in which he tallied 17 points in 27 games. Big centers often take time to find their footing, with Tage Thompson being the obvious recent example, so Byfield could finally be ready to bust out. He’s still just 21.

Bowen Byram, Colorado Avalanche

He appeared on my list last season, and I’m doubling down. Byram continues to flash the all-around ability to become a star defenseman in this league. It’s a matter of staying on the ice long enough to do so. He’s played 91 regular-season games over his first three seasons combined. Over his past two campaigns, he compiled 15 goals and 41 points in just 72 games – in his age-20 and age-21 years. That’s a hint of what his ceiling can be if he plays a full season in the NHL. When you share a team with Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Sam Girard, your puck-carrying skill as a young blueliner can be overshadowed. But Byram could emerge as Colorado’s second-best defenseman as early as this season.

Cody Glass, Nashville Predators

When the Vegas Golden Knights drafted Glass, he earned comparisons to Mark Scheifele for his intelligence and vision. Glass tore up major junior in his draft +1 and draft + 2 seasons. But every time he seemed to be getting a look in Vegas’ top nine, he failed to impress enough to hold down a job long-term. He ended up shipped to Nashville in the three-team trade that brought Nolan Patrick to Vegas. Glass had a strong 2021-22 season spent mostly in the AHL and hinted at realizing his potential late last season with the Preds. From mid-December onward, Glass tallied 31 points in 53 games. In 5-on-5 play, Nashville outscored opponents 34-21 with him on the ice. What’s most intriguing about him in 2023-24: opportunity. Ryan O’Reilly is Nashville’s de facto No. 1 center now but will handle a lot of the shutdown work and has seen much of his offensive ceiling evaporate. Tommy Novak was a great story last season, but Glass has the pedigree and size to make more sense as a potential long-term fit in a scoring role up the middle. He already set career highs in goals and points last season with 12 and 35 and looks like a strong bet to top those numbers this season. He took a nasty puck in the face during Nashville’s season opener Tuesday, but it sounds like he’s OK.

Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes

I loved Jarvis as a breakout candidate a year ago. It didn’t happen. At least, that’s what the primary surface stats told us, right? His stat line regressed significantly in his second full NHL season: He fell to a from a 17-23-40 line to a 14-25-39 line despite playing in 14 more games than he did as a rookie. But Jarvis was unbelievably unlucky. Among 100 forwards who registered 180 shots on goal or more last season, he had the 99^th-best shooting percentage at a miniscule 7.5. He scored on 15.5 percent of his shots as a rookie. Jarvis drastically improved his play-driving last year in terms of how many shots, scoring chances and high-danger chances he generated in 5-on-5 play. He did everything but put the puck in the net. If there’s one breakout among these 10 I’m willing to plant my flag on? Give me Jarvis, who was arguably the most snakebitten shooter in hockey last season.

Pyotr Kochetkov, Carolina Hurricanes

That darned waiver-exempt status. It made Kochetkov the odd man out whenever Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta were healthy last season, as Kochetkov didn’t have to pass through waivers to be sent down. The same status keeps him third on the depth chart this season after the Canes opted to re-sign both their veterans. Andersen and Raanta are injury-prone, however, and that’s a big reason why the Canes gave Kochetkov a four-year extension at a $2 million AAV after just seven regular-season games and four playoff games last fall. They envision him as their puck-stopper of the future, and he could be their puck-stopper of the present sooner than it seems. For now, he’ll marinate in AHL Syracuse, loaned to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s affiliate since the Canes don’t have one, but the next Andersen or Raanta injury could strike at any moment. The next time Kochetkov gets a long look in the NHL, he may stay there for good; he holds a solid .908 save percentage so far in his career, he outplayed Andersen soundly last season, and Kochetkov has also looked comfortable when pressed into postseason duty.

Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers

I wavered between Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko for this spot, especially now that Kakko has beaten out Lafreniere for the first-line right wing job. But I have to stick to my guns: while Kakko has been the less disappointing of the two top-two draft picks, Lafreniere’s career trajectory is the one pointing to a breakout. Shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances, rebounds generated…hits…blocked shots…name the stat and Lafreniere has improved it with each NHL season despite the fact he hasn’t consistently passed the eye test. The Blueshirts said goodbye to Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko in free agency and replaced only one of their vacated winger spots with the Blake Wheeler signing, so there are jobs in the top six for Lafreniere, Kakko or even rookie Will Cuylle to seize. I’m just not quite willing to throw in the towel on Lafreniere, who turns 22 today. He’s talented enough and physical enough to become an impact player at the NHL level. Maybe the ship has sailed on him realizing the superstar potential that made him 2020’s No. 1 overall pick, but I envision a breakout similar to teammate Filip Chytil’s a year ago. Lafreniere would help the Rangers plenty if he even became a feisty 25-goal threat.

Timothy Liljegren, Toronto Maple Leafs

Including Liljegren on this list will really challenge your faith in numbers vs. the eye test, I admit. Liljegren looked shaky at times when thrown into the fire during the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs. But the Leafs…need him. Like, badly. Morgan Rielly and John Klingberg bring the offense, not the defense. Mark Giordano just turned 40 and has obviously lost a step or three. T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe, playing on separate pairs, look like the Leafs’ best bets as shutdown defensemen, but they aren’t built to shoulder that burden without some support. Enter Liljegren, who looked strong in the pre-season and, thus far in his NHL career, has made a pretty positive 5-on-5 impact in sheltered minutes. Even if he doesn’t ever ascend to a level befitting his first-round draft status, he’s almost a sure bet to be a better defensive player than Klingberg. There is thus a conceivable path to Liljegren emerging as a top-four option in Toronto this year, with Klingberg playing third-pair minutes while manning the top power play.

Rasmus Sandin, Washington Capitals

The 15 points in 19 games, post-trade from the Leafs to the Capitals, obviously stand out for Sandin. But it’s the opportunity rather than just the numbers that really pop for me. His average ice time increased by five minutes as a Capital, from 17:59 to a 22:59. Sandin was given the chance to be a horse down the stretch. He did have an adjustment going from a good defensive team to a mediocre one and handling harder matchups than he was used to, but he held his own. He can move the puck and he’s a lot more physical than he gets credit for. He’s slated to start the season on Washington’s top pair alongside John Carlson. Sandin might be regarded as one of the better under-25 defensemen in the game by the end of this season.

Karel Vejmelka, Arizona Coyotes

Vejmelka has two NHL seasons under his belt, mopping up for the lowly Desert Dogs. Over that span, he’s been subjected to the fifth-highest expected goals against per 60 in the league – and the second most among starters, trailing only Anaheim’s John Gibson. Vejmelka’s game is respected in goalie circles – just ask my pal Mike McKenna – and he’s had zero help around him thus far in his NHL career. That’s about to change in a big way. The Coyotes added Sean Durzi, Troy Stecher and Matt Dumba to their D-corps, not to mention Jason Zucker, Alex Kerfoot, a returning Nick Bjugstad and more up front. They get to break in top prospect Logan Cooley as an NHLer. This team looks somewhat competitive for the first time in years, and it’s possible Vejmelka blossoms into an above-average starter now that he won’t be peppered with Grade-A chances every night.

Cam York, Philadelphia Flyers

No more Ivan Provorov. No more Tony DeAngelo. No more Ryan Ellis, sadly. Someone has to move the puck for this rebuilding Flyers team. Why not York, who was projected for the role when the Flyers chose him 14^th overall at the 2019 NHL Draft? He didn’t necessarily storm his way to the team by lighting up every stop in his developmental path, but York has gradually worked his way into NHL readiness. On such a stripped-down roster, York is ticketed for top-pair work and power-play quarterback duties right away. We could see a breakout simply out of necessity. The Flyers and coach John Tortorella have no choice but to entrust York in a key puck-moving role. He flashed competence in that assignment late last season, quietly putting up strong two-way results when deployed in second-pair minutes. He’s closer to delivering on his pedigree than meets the eye.

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