2023 NHL Trade Deadline Playbook: Minnesota Wild

Credit: © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

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We’re barely two weeks away from the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today, we’re going to hone in on the Minnesota Wild, who have a precarious hold on the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 16 days

MINNESOTA WILD
Current Record: 28-20-5, 61 points (2nd Wild Card)
General Manager: Bill Guerin (4th season)
Head Coach: Dean Evason (3rd full season)
Captain: Jared Spurgeon (3rd season)

Last Year: Lost to St. Louis Blues (4-2) in Western Conference quarterfinal.

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 2.91 per game (24th)
Goals Against: 2.85 per game (12th)
Power Play: 23.5 percent (9th)
Penalty Kill: 81 percent (10th)

Key Additions
C Sam Steel – Signed 1-year, $825,000 contract on Aug. 30
RW Ryan Reaves – Acquired from N.Y. Rangers on Nov. 23
G Filip Gustavsson – Acquired from Ottawa on July 12

Key Subtractions
LW Kevin Fiala – Rights traded to Los Angeles on June 29
G Cam Talbot – Traded to Ottawa on July 12
C Nick Bjugstad – Signed 1-year, $900,000 contract in Arizona on July 13
LD Jordie Benn – Signed 1-year, $750,000 contract in Toronto on July 14
LD Dmitry Kulikov – Traded to Anaheim on Aug. 31
LW Tyson Jost – Claimed off waivers by Buffalo on Nov. 19

Trainer’s Table
RW Marcus Foligno – Will miss Wednesday’s game (knee) but is expected to be day-to-day

For the most part, the Wild have been very healthy this season. Nearly half of their skaters have played the full complement of games; they have only used 29 total players this season including both goalies. Ryan Hartman missed 22 games with a shoulder injury. Jonas Brodin sat out eight games with a “lower-body” injury. Jordan Greenway was injured in his season debut, has missed 18 total games but has been available every game since the day Ryan Reaves was acquired before U.S. Thanksgiving.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

It’s often helpful to take a look back at was executed at last year’s trade deadline to see what may be gleaned for information on how this year might be approached.

March 21, 2022
To Minnesota: Marc-Andre Fleury
To Chicago: 2022 2nd Round Pick (Ryan Greene), 50 percent retained

March 21, 2022
To Minnesota: Jacob Middleton
To San Jose: Kaapo Kahkonen, 2022 5th Round Pick (Jake Furlong)

March 19, 2022
To Minnesota: Nicolas Deslauriers
To Anaheim: 2023 3rd Round Pick

March 21, 2022
To Minnesota: 2022 2nd Round Pick (Hunter Haight)
To Arizona: Jack McBain

March 15, 2022
To Minnesota: Tyson Jost
To Colorado: Nico Sturm

March 21, 2022
To Minnesota: Future Considerations
To Seattle: Victor Rask

The Wild were incredibly active in the deadline period, making six trades in an attempt to improve their roster. Fleury was the big deadline addition, which was interesting because they were able to add him (and re-signed him to a two-year deal in the summer) while actually improving their draft board by first trading unsigned prospect Jack McBain to the Coyotes in the hours prior. With an excess netminder, the Wild moved Kahkonen to the Sharks in exchange for Middleton, who was also re-signed to a three-year extension in the summer. Adding grit and personality has been a key theme in both last year’s trade for Nicolas Deslauriers and November’s deal for Reaves. Along the way, the Wild have made shrewd salary cap transactions – such as shaving a couple million bucks in swapping Filip Gustavsson for Cam Talbot or taking on a better player in Jost to get Colorado out of their cap bind with Sturm.

How did we get here?

The Wild’s season has been swirling like a harsh Minnesota winter wind in recent weeks. They have struggled on both sides of the All-Star break, sinking in the standings with a 3-6-1 mark over their last 10 games – and none of those wins is in regulation. Their slide has put Minnesota’s playoff position on thin ice as it has come at the exact time that the Colorado Avalanche have begun to get healthier, flipping the Central Division standings.

In a way, this year has been three different seasons wrapped into one for the Wild. They fell out of the gate with a 9-8-2 record (86-point pace). Then GM Bill Guerin pulled the trigger on a pre-Thanksgiving trade for Ryan Reaves based on what he said was a hunch for swagger and personality that the team was lacking. It was the touch of a GM who recently played in the league and won Stanley Cups and has a visceral, gut-feel for his team’s dynamic. Minnesota took off. They piled up points in 18 of their next 24 games (16-6-2) which seemed to supplant them right in the thick of a crowded Central Division.

Now, they’re amid a drought. They’ve struggled to score, particularly at even-strength. And there is a hint of fragility in their game and in their locker room right now as they’ve scuffled. In their last 10 games, the Wild have scored just 10 total even-strength goals (10 even-strength, nine power play, one shorthanded, one shootout). With goal scoring at such a premium, that has added stress to their defense and goaltending. The goaltending hasn’t been an issue, but the defense has showed signs of cracking with what coach Dean Evason has repeatedly harped on as poor decision-making in pinching and neutral zone situations, leading to odd-man opportunities and high-danger chances against. All of that raises the question: What will Guerin do to change the fortunes of the Wild season?

Deadline Posture: Cautious Buyers

Guerin has repeatedly said this season that he won’t be able to trade the Wild out of their problems. And that rings true now. Here’s the thing: the Wild are between a rock and a hard place.

They’ve got an all-world player in Kirill Kaprizov in the absolute prime of his career. They’ve got the makeup of a team that could be a difficult out in the playoffs, if they can get in. They’ve got cap space to spend this season.

But they must deal within a specific set of parameters. With Zach Parise and Ryan Suter’s buyouts ratcheting up to $14.75 million in dead space next season, the Wild likely cannot take on a player with term on his contract. And at the same time, they will not want to dip into their prospect pool or the high-end of their draft board because they are going to need as many young players as possible contributing on inexpensive, entry-level deals while those buyouts wreak havoc on their cap.

So that means the Wild are living in a world of likely second tier acquisitions looking for rentals who won’t cost a ton to try and ensure a playoff berth. Or, of course, you can’t rule out a good old fashioned hockey trade – but those are increasingly rare.

Deadline Objectives

With that framework, here are the areas the Wild could address:

Top Objective: Impact Center

We’ve argued before that the Wild are really in need of a bonafide No. 1 center, but that player doesn’t appear to be materializing on the open market. Adding a Bo Horvat or Dylan Larkin would have been a phenomenal upgrade if they could’ve gotten their hands on a player of that magnitude, someone who can make Kaprizov that much more dangerous on the top line. The Wild say they’re not necessarily married to acquiring a center, though, and would consider any scoring help.

Secondary Objective: Depth Defender

Notice we wrote “defender” and not “defenseman.” Because when you listen to Evason, as mentioned above, the Wild could apparently use a defender who can settle things down – particularly through the neutral zone – as opposed to increasing their risk profile. A true defender could take a lot of heat and pressure off Minnesota’s overall team game.

Tertiary Objective: Consider Market for Dumba

To this point, we do not believe Guerin’s phone has been ringing off the hook with teams interested in Matt Dumba, who is a pending unrestricted free agent. That could change in the days and hours leading up to the deadline. Short of that, the Wild won’t be out there desperately seeking to recoup a small asset or two to move on from Dumba. They’d rather keep him as a classic “own rental.”

Potential Targets 🎯

Let’s line up the Wild with a couple names from our latest Trade Targets board:

Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis Blues: Center. Check. Oozes character. Check. 2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner. Check. The Blues’ captain really seems to check a lot of boxes for the Wild. The only one he doesn’t right now would be acquisition cost. If O’Reilly slides into second-round pick territory, it’s easy to see Minnesota’s interest.
Nick Bonino, San Jose Sharks: Bonino won’t be expensive. He’s incredibly smart. And he’s the model of consistency. Guerin saw Bonino’s impact in Pittsburgh’s two Stanley Cup runs first-hand and he could be a value add.
Taylor Raddysh, Chicago Blackhawks: Raddysh’s acquisition cost likely wouldn’t be cheap. But if the Wild were to go down the path of a winger, he’s been productive and that contract next season below league minimum would be a perfect guy for their salary cap situation.
Luke Schenn, Minnesota Wild: Schenn is the type of stylistic defender who can help Minnesota. He doesn’t take unnecessary risks, he is physical, and he won’t break the bank on the acquisition cost – and is a player the Wild could re-sign for next season if they like him.

Trade Chips

Salary Cap Space: The Wild are one of the few teams in playoff position with no real salary cap space concerns for this season. They’ve been accruing space all year. According to CapFriendly, they currently could afford adding an $11 million player, or as much as $16 million in total salary by Deadline Day.
RD Matt Dumba: It’s no secret that the Wild would be willing to deal Dumba in the right circumstance. We broke down his game in a detailed Trade Deadline Player Profile as a true Boom or Bust addition.
2023-2024 2nd Round Picks, 2024 3rd Round Pick: The Wild would prefer to not deal this year’s first-round pick if avoidable.
B-Level Prospects: The Wild won’t be trading their top level prospects like Marco Rossi, Jesper Wallstedt, Brock Faber, Carson Lambos or Liam Ohgren.

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