Will a power-play hungry team reach on declining Duck John Klingberg at Trade Deadline?

Credit: © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

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With just over three weeks until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to examine the game of Anaheim Ducks defenseman John Klingberg, who has struggled this season but remains ranked No. 10 on our latest Trade Targets board.

2023 Trade Deadline countdown: 23 days

JOHN KLINGBERG
Right Defense, Anaheim Ducks
Shoots: Right
Age: 30
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 185 lbs.
Cap Hit: $7 million
Term: Pending UFA
Trade Clauses: 10-team list where he is willing to accept a trade
Stats: 44 GP, 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points, 21:02 avg TOI
Career: 9th season (Dallas, Anaheim), 596 GP, 77 goals, 393 points, 22:51 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Puck Mover. Second pair, power play specialist.

Klingberg began the season ranked as the 17th best Puck Moving Defenseman in Daily Faceoff’s Archetype Ranking series. Last year in Dallas, Klingberg was fourth in the league in successful zone exit carries, 15th in defensive zone carries, 21st in stretch passes, 22nd in total passes, and 30th in zone exit passes. He has struggled mightily in his transition to the Ducks. The view now is teams will see Klingberg as a luxury power play specialist who may need be deployed in a sheltered manner in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Scouting Report

No surprise, Klingberg’s offensive sense and deceptive nature with the puck are top notch. His best attribute is his ability to use and create space on the blueline on the power play – and then distribute the puck from the top as a quarterback. He remains elite in that regard. He can provide teammates the puck on time and with the space they need to create great scoring chances.

With time and space, Klingberg can retrieve the puck and quickly transition it vertically to all areas of the ice effectively. He does take risks, which can result in turnovers, but completes passes to attacking forwards more often than not, giving teammates the opportunity to enter the zone with possession and set up shop.

Klingberg’s shot is still strong. It’s hard, accurate and quick, making him a threat on the power play. He can also use it in a deceptive way to create better passing lanes for his forwards.

Klingberg has floundered in Anaheim this season on the power play with just one goal and three assists. But he still ranks 18th in expected goals for percentage, which indicates he can be properly slotted as a first unit power play quarterback. To be fair to Klingberg, Anaheim has a lot of the same type of player – also with Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk – so his power play time is somewhat limited and the back end is crowded with guys who move the puck well with space but are limited in other areas.

Buyer Beware

Like his Ducks teammates, Klingberg has his own limitations. His decline is stark – and it isn’t limited to just this season. For the past several seasons, Klingberg has progressively and steadily fallen down the list of point-producing offensive defensemen, to the point where his even-strength offense can no longer mask his defensive deficiencies. That’s why the Stars moved on from him when he clearly wanted to stay in Dallas. It’s why he lingered for 16 days on the free agent market before the Ducks stepped up, hoping to essentially buy a first-round pick in a trade package.

The results have been terrible for Klingberg this season. According to Evolving Hockey, Klingberg ranks 174 out of 180 defensemen in goals above replacement among players with over 500 minutes.

Klingberg struggles under pressure, particularly in his own zone. He takes a lot of hits. For a guy who can skate as well as him, that is abnormal. When he turns his back to retrieve the puck, he lacks the processing power to quickly assess danger and move it. Part of that is the fact he is trying to do too much when he has the puck. He doesn’t play the chess game, meaning he tries to make the best play every time, rather than trying to make the simple play to make the better play later on. A number of years ago, he could escape pressure with his feet to make those plays. But he has aged, taken a lot of hits, and that ability has declined. The problem is his game hasn’t evolved to account for that.

Defensively without the puck, Klingberg fails to attack to kill plays. Under pressure, he can get pushed out of contested areas and lose battles, leading to high-danger chances against and easy goals.

At this stage in his career, Klingberg is a player that needs an opportunity with a team’s best power play and to play with strong defenders at even-strength who can properly support him.

There may also be a mental component to a move. Klingberg clearly wanted to make it work in Dallas, but the Stars saw what most see now – a declining defenseman who thought he was worth more than they were willing to pay. He was then forced to shoulder the risk, sign a one-year ‘show-me’ deal in Anaheim, and has known all season long he’s going to get moved. That can weigh on anyone. The problem is his production has not been there. By all accounts, he is a great teammate and member of the communities he’s played in, but the pressure of performing in the playoffs for his next contract won’t make the mental burden any lighter.

Potential Fits

Seattle Kraken: At the right price, Seattle could look to push their group over the top and qualify for their first Stanley Cup playoff appearance. They have the cap space to not have to add an additional asset to run his contract through a third-party broker. They also have two additional 2023 second-round picks to deal from.
New York Islanders: We just saw the Islanders take a big swing with Bo Horvat. They’re 2-0 since Horvat arrived and squarely in the playoff chase. They’ve struggled with their 31st ranked power play this year. They are also a team with strong defenders and great goaltender than can cover for Klingberg and allow him to play to his strengths.
Calgary Flames: We’re still not convinced that the Flames will be big buyers at the deadline. They’re in the bottom quartile on the man-advantage. And they have the right defense to partner with Klingberg to mask some of his limitations at even-strength. He could be a relatively low-cost addition that could make them consistently dangerous down the stretch.

Comparable Trade Returns

Given the visible limitations in Klingberg’s game, it’s incredibly hard to envision him fetching Anaheim a first-round pick. The other complicating factor is most contending teams will have to use a third-party broker, which will only increase the acquisition cost by another asset.

Since Klingberg isn’t a strong, physical defender, his return will likely be significantly lower. The Ducks will undoubtedly be asking for a second-round pick, but any team paying that price will likely be basing their decision on name and reputation. Here are a few potential comps:

June 28, 2019
To Buffalo: Colin Miller
To Vegas: 2021 2nd Round Pick (Ben Roger), 2022 5th Round Pick (Sergei Ivanov)

That Miller trade above is likely the upper-echelon when also factoring in the additional asset to run it through a third-party.

Feb. 24, 2020
To Edmonton: Mike Green
To Detroit: Kyle Brodziak, 2020 4th Round Pick (Jan Bednar)

April 11, 2021
To Boston: Mike Reilly
To Ottawa: 2022 3rd Round Pick (Tomas Hamara)

Feb. 24, 2020
To Calgary: Erik Gustafsson
To Chicago: 2020 3rd Round Pick (Wyatt Kaiser)

Summary

Partnered with the right player and used to quarterback a team’s top power play with stars, Klingberg could add an offensive boost at the deadline. Given his struggles elsewhere, the price should not be a first-round pick, but at this point in the season it only takes one team to get desperate.

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