Which team will bet on Canucks’ Brock Boeser to rejuvenate his career at the Trade Deadline?

Credit: © Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

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With fewer than four weeks remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to hone in on Vancouver Canucks winger Brock Boeser, who climbed to No. 8 on our latest Trade Targets board since the Canucks moved on from captain Bo Horvat last week.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 25 days

BROCK BOESER
Right Wing, Vancouver Canucks
Shoots: Right
Age: 25
Height: 6’1″ | Weight: 208 lbs.
Cap Hit: $6.65 million
Term: 2 more seasons
Trade Clauses: No restrictions
Stats: 41 GP, 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points, 16:45 avg TOI
Career: 7th season (all with Vancouver), 365 GP, 130 goals, 286 points, 18:21 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Shooter. Second line, first unit power play.

Boeser slotted in at No. 15 on Daily Faceoff’s Archetype Ranking series among pure shooters. Despite having among the lowest goal total in the group, last season Boeser was inside the Top 30 in the league in shots attempted per game, shots from the slot, one-timers and expected goals. Ideally, Boeser would slide onto a team’s second line and first unit power play and picks back up at the 23-25 goal pace he has been scoring at for the bulk of his career.

Scouting Report

When he first broke into the NHL with a 38-goal pace in his rookie season as a 20-year-old, Boeser was known for his “Brocket” of a shot. His game has changed a bit since then. But he still possesses a quick, accurate and heavy shot that he often uses to beat goalies off the rush or when he is net-front on the power play.

How does he get there? Boeser has a knack for scoring because of his strong offensive sense. He can see and feel pressure in the offensive zone, find soft ice without the puck, and set himself up for quick strikes or finding space behind defenders for good looks at the net.

Boeser is flexible, meaning he can be effective in a lot of different ways offensively. He isn’t rigid. He is best away from the puck, as he is not a natural distributor, but when he does possess the puck, he protects it well and plays better with players that like to play below the dots. He uses the combination of his thick size, wide base and strong edges to fend off defenders and make subtle give-and-go plays that normally result in quality chances. When playing on a more rush-oriented line, Boeser uses his offensive sense to find space and set up for a shot. He has been equally successful this year playing with Bo Horvat and Elias Pettersson.

When he does find the space to shoot, Boeser has an elite shot – as evidenced by his 13 percent career shooting percentage – although that has been hampered this year by a hand injury sustained on the third day of training camp. The shot is quick, hard, and deadly accurate – and his release is deceptive, to the point where he can and often does beat goalies from mid-range distance.

Buyer Beware

So, if Boeser possesses an elite shot and scoring touch, why is he on track for just 18 goals over a full 82-game season this year? Aside from the hand injury, maybe things have just run their course in Vancouver. He’s missed time with a variety of injuries and had to deal with a lot off the ice in his relatively young career, notably the death of his father last May. On top of that, he’s been rumored to be traded for the past year, with his agent Ben Hankinson finally being given permission to find a trade partner in December.

The trade rumors, his injuries, and his off-ice tragedy would weigh any player down, but Boeser has soldiered on with a good attitude and puts the work in. That doesn’t change the fact that he is on pace for his worst full-season goal total this year, in part due to the injury, but probably in no small part to the dark clouds that have swirled over his head for more than a year.

Teams are well aware that Boeser has never been a great skater. He lacks separation speed, which hampers his ability to create the space necessary to distribute the puck, limiting him to a complementary shooter role. That forces coaches to play him with faster players who can get in on pucks more quickly and get them to Boeser for looks, such as Ilya Mikheyev this year in Vancouver. His first three strides are average, but once he gets moving, he can think his way into elite position by reading the play. He is strong on his skates, able to absorb contact and make small-area plays to get to spots to shoot under pressure.

Boeser’s lack of pace also impacts his defensive ability. He is often late to backcheck and once in the defensive zone, he typically reacts to pressure rather than anticipate attacking lanes. He has the tendency to cheat for offense, giving himself a little head start out of the zone, which can burn his team from time to time. Any team with the hopes of making a deep playoff run needs players committed to playing in all three zones, and Boeser has shown inconsistency on the defensive side of the puck.

Potential Fits

New Jersey Devils: So we know that Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald says they’re looking for top six winger under team control. We believe the target is Timo Meier. But if Meier falls through, is Boeser a decent checkdown option? His acquisition cost and impacting salary cap hit in the next few years will be much more affordable.
New York Rangers: See above. Meier is undoubtedly the Rangers’ No. 1 target. We’re not sure that New York is as hung up about the player having term, so if Meier falls through, it’s easy to see the Rangers targeting a player like James van Riemsdyk, whose impact teams will be comparing Boeser to as a rental on the trade market.
Pittsburgh Penguins: GM Ron Hextall said Sunday that the Pens aren’t looking to trade their first-round pick. Boeser wouldn’t cost a first-round pick. With both Jason Zucker and Brian Dumoulin coming off the books next season, Boeser could bolster Pittsburgh’s push down the stretch, plus add some firepower to play with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin the next couple years. Canucks president Jim Rutherford has already traded and traded for Kasperi Kapanen, and he could do it again to help make the money and trade work for both teams.
Calgary Flames: The Flames have been looking for a scoring winger since August, when they signed Nazem Kadri down the middle. Boeser makes sense, he typically scores north of 20-goals a year, and it’s an easy sell for a team that might not be in the rental market. His price won’t be near what they paid for Tyler Toffoli. But it’s harder to envision a path for the money to work next season and beyond with the Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar contracts kicking in.
Washington Capitals: The Caps went on an All-Star spending spree with Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano over the break. They still have a ton of expiring contracts and room for next season, but they’d have to send a player the other way to make the money work.
Minnesota Wild: The Wild seem to be linked to Boeser, but how much of that is because Boeser is a Minnesota kid? Maybe that makes sense. But the salary cap gymnastics would have to be pretty substantial in order to make it all work and it feels like there is more smoke there than fire.
Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres have cap space to burn and are in the midst of a playoff push. Here’s the thing: Buffalo made a commitment to not bring in players that will get in the way of their young guys. Jack Quinn has had a solid rookie season on the wing with production that isn’t far off from Boeser’s year already. Victor Olofsson has quietly been strong, too. Is there even an opening for Boeser, who would fit their age scheme?

Comparable Trade Returns

There are a number of facets to keep in mind when it comes to projecting a potential return for Boeser. Are the Canucks willing to retain any salary? Most teams see Boeser as being overpaid by approximately $1 million relative to his current production. Retaining a million or even a little more would go a long way in increasing the return in the trade, but would also further cloud Vancouver’s quest for salary cap flexibility and chew up one of the three allotted retained salary transactions for two more seasons.

The Canucks are also interested in current, NHL-ready players ages 25 and under, so if they decide to go that route as opposed to futures, it will obviously change the return.

It all depends on how aggressive the Canucks want to be, because depending on how they value the salary cap freedom relative to the return for Boeser, the deal could swing wildly from getting assets of value to having to pay to move on.

With that said, here are a few recent frameworks:

July 28, 2021
To Vegas: Evgeni Dadonov
To Ottawa: Nick Holden, 2022 3rd Round Pick (the other Elias Pettersson)

July 23, 2021
To St. Louis: Pavel Buchnevich
To N.Y. Rangers: Sammy Blais, 2022 2nd Round Pick (Elias Salomonsson)

The return for Boeser right now is likely somewhere between a second and third-round pick. That 2021 summer, Buchnevich was coming off a 20-goal, 48-point season in just 54 games as a 25-year-old (same age as Boeser) and the Rangers weren’t prepared to pay his RFA arbitration case. He’s taken off since the trade with a 76-point season last year and earns $5.8 million on a four-year deal.

Summary

There is no doubt Boeser has the talent to be an impact NHL player. When partnered with the right players and deployed in the right situations, he can add scoring punch to a team that needs to get over the playoff hump. Any acquiring team will believe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs to get back to being the consistent, 25-goal scorer and power play threat that he used to be. It’s going to be a gamble either way with a $6.65 million cap hit for the next two seasons.