2024 NHL Draft Lottery Preview: Rating the contending teams’ prospect pools

Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

If your NHL team sucks enough that you’re spending your Tuesday evening watching a man flip cardboard signs around, I feel for you.

The 2024 NHL Draft lottery takes place tonight, with 11 teams holding a chance to land Macklin Celebrini with the first overall pick. Celebrini is coming off a massive season at Boston University, becoming the first 17-year-old player to win the NCAA’s famed Hobey Baker Award as the top male college hockey player. He is far and away the best player available in 2024, and he could easily step into the NHL as soon as this October.

The San Jose Sharks hold the best odds of landing the centerman, with Chicago – who chose Connor Bedard first overall in 2023 – sitting second. The same five bottom-feeders from last year are in it again, and all have excellent pipelines to build from. Adding Celebrini would only make it better.

How does each of the 11 team’s prospect pools look heading into the selection?

1. San Jose Sharks (25.5 percent)

Top prospects: Will Smith, Quentin Musty, Shakir Mukhamadullin

The Sharks have taken serious steps forward with their pipeline over the past 14 months, adding high-end talents in both Smith and Musty at the 2023 draft and acquiring Mukhamadullin, Henry Thrun and David Edstrom via trade. Filip Bystedt also had a good year in the SHL, suggesting he could be a legitimate scoring threat deeper in the lineup one day. It’s not clear what Thomas Bordeleau is going to be for San Jose, if anything, and Kasper Halttunen’s skating could hold him back. But from a depth perspective, it wouldn’t be surprising if around 8-10 players from their current pool end up becoming NHLers at some point. They’re still missing a potential top-pairing defenseman and a decent-at-best goaltending prospect, though. The Sharks aren’t close to being a real contender yet, and there are at least a few who wonder if Celebrini would elect to go back to college for one more year if the Sharks took him. But if any team could use him, it’s San Jose. (Rating: A)

2. Chicago Blackhawks (13.5 percent)

Top prospects: Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, Ethan Del Mastro

Even after graduating Connor Bedard and Kevin Korchinski to the big leagues, the Blackhawks have depth. Nazar is set for his first full season of pro hockey next year, although there’s an argument to be made that playing in the AHL full-time could be best for him. Moore is going to be a great addition one day, while Del Mastro and Sam Rinzel give the team two more high-quality defenders to join Korchinski one day. The Blackhawks also have one of the best goalie prospects of any team on this list, with Adam Gajan showing some upside – and then there’s also Drew Comesso. This group has depth, albeit no game-changing prospect in the system right now like Smith in San Jose. But adding Celebrini to join Bedard? Yeah, good luck, goalies. (Rating: A)

3. Anaheim Ducks (11.5 percent)

Top prospects: Cutter Gauthier, Olen Zellweger, Tristan Luneau

The Ducks graduated Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe, and Lukas Dostal this year, yet they still managed to add arguably the top prospect in the game in Gauthier. That helped raise their profile a bit, adding to a group that has two more high-end defensive prospects in Zellweger and Luneau on the way, but was missing a big-game forward. The high-end is good, but they’ve also got decent depth options in Nathan Gaucher and Sasha Pastujov, too. If Damian Clara turns into something in net, that could end up being huge. Could you imagine a forward core with Gauthier, Carlsson, Zegras, McTavish and Celebrini? Downright scary. (Rating: A)

4. Columbus Blue Jackets (9.5 percent)

Top prospects: David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk, Jordan Dumais

I’m really excited about Columbus’ pipeline, and I really hope they get the right staff in place to maximize their potential here. I’m still high on Jiricek, despite how he was yo-yo’d all year long. Mateychuk was one of the best two-way defenders outside of the NHL this season, and while Dumais had his issues this year, I still think he could be one of those smaller players who really makes noise one day. Gavin Brindley was unstoppable at Michigan this year so I’m excited to see what he can do in the big leagues, and there’s still Stanislav Svozil, Luca Del Bel Belluz and Luca Pinelli who could end up being NHLers one day. They’re missing a goalie prospect, but they’ve got fascinating depth. (Rating: A)

5. Montreal Canadiens (8.5 percent)

Top prospects: Lane Hutson, David Reinbacher, Jacob Fowler

The high-end here is good – I do expect Hutson and Reinbacher to be impact players sooner rather than later. There are also high hopes for Fowler, one of the best goalies in college, to become a starter one day. Joshua Roy had an excellent season, but he’s looking more like a second-liner at best, and that’s good. Logan Mailloux had a monster AHL rookie campaign and could look to challenge for a roster spot next year, giving the team some extra depth. That’s where things fall off a bit. Justin Barron and Owen Beck are more complementary players and then I’m not sure there’s as much after that. But if you had a skilled forward with a high upside to this group, they’d be so hard to ignore. I expect the Habs to take some positive steps forward, and, hopefully, this is one of the last times they select this high. (Rating: A-)

6. Utah (7.5 percent)

Top prospects: Dmitri Simashev, Daniil But, Conor Geekie

Utah’s first NHL Draft has a chance to be a legitimate franchise-changing one, helping start off the new era in style. Simashev and But were two surprising first-round picks a year ago, and if they end up coming over, many think there’s potential for them to be legitimate impact players. I really like Geekie, who I feel like has the swagger to thrive once he turns pro. Josh Doan looked good in his spot NHL duty, while defenseman Maveric Lamoureux and goaltender Michael Hrabal give this group a boost. The rest feel more like depth options, but if the top half excel, they’ll be in good shape. (Rating: B+)

7. Ottawa Senators (6.5 percent)

Top prospects: Tyler Kleven, Mads Søgaard, Tyler Boucher

This won’t come as a surprise to Senators fans, but the team has one of the worst pipelines in the NHL. Most expected sizeable steps forward this year, only to fall in the bottom 10 yet again. A history of poor selections doesn’t help, and I think, at best, we’re looking at maybe two or three of these players becoming realistic NHLers. I will say that watching Stephen Halliday play so well at Ohio State was great to see, and I’m not giving up on Leevi Merilainen in net. But I’m not sure where this team’s headed right now. (Rating: D-)

8. Seattle Kraken (6.0 percent)

Top prospects: Shane Wright, Carson Rehkopf, Jagger Firkus

Let’s be clear: Seattle’s group is front-heavy. Wright still looks solid, Rehkopf had a good year and Firkus and David Goyette were two of the best players in major junior this year. I like Eduard Sale, even if I’m concerned about his consistency, and I think Oscar Fisker-Mølgaard could still be a decent depth forward, too. On defense, Ty Nelson and Ryker Evans are both intriguing but flawed. Lukas Dragicevic has all the skill in the world, but his skating still needs some serious work. There are some lower-end guys that could still pan out, but they lack a goaltender with real NHL potential and their defensive depth doesn’t give me much hope. (Rating B+)

9. Calgary Flames (5.0 percent)

Top prospects: Matt Coronato, Dustin Wolf, Samuel Honzek

If all goes well, the Flames have a top-six forward (Coronato), a No. 1 goalie (Wolf) and a big, middle-six forward (Honzek). Coronato struggled in NHL duty this year but looked great in the AHL. The same goes for Wolf, one of the top goalie prospects in the league. Honzek has dealt with quite a few injuries but when he’s healthy, he can dominate opponents. Adding Hunter Brzustewicz, one of the best offensive blueliners in the CHL, was great, and I still have high hopes for Etienne Morin and Aydar Suniev from the 2023 draft. I’m just not sure how many of these players will become truly impactful, though. (Rating: B)

10. New Jersey Devils (3.5 percent)

Top prospects: Seamus Casey, Arseni Grtisyuk, Lenni Hameenaho

The good news? They graduated Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec and Alex Holtz. The bad news? It looks kind of ugly after that. I like Casey, but I’m not sure if he’ll be more than “just a guy” in the NHL. Beyond that, while I like Hameenaho, I don’t see a pool deep enough to churn out more than just the occasional call-up options in the system. New Jersey fell well short of expectations this year, but it was pretty clear that if everyone was healthy and the goaltending was just marginally better, this team was playoff-bound, no matter what. If any team on this list will have a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup next year, it’s New Jersey. (Rating: C)

11. Buffalo Sabres (3.0 percent)

Top prospects: Matthew Savoie, Jiri Kulich, Devon Levi

The Sabres have one of the best young cores in the NHL, and they’ve got many more notable names on the way up. Savoie is one of my favorite prospects, although I don’t see him being a play-driver in the NHL. Kulich has had a pair of solid AHL campaigns in Rochester, and Levi got better as he felt more comfortable throughout the season. Noah Östlund is looking like a player with high upside out of Sweden, and Isak Rosen and Nikita Novikov impressed with the Americans, too. Buffalo’s pipeline is a bit congested so they’ll need to move at least a few out, but that’s an excellent spot to be in. Unless they get the first pick, I fully expect them to take a defenseman. (Rating: A)