Six key takeaways from past best-on-best finals ahead of USA vs. Canada

Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey)(AdjustedHockey)

Credit: Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports

After a short but intense blast of international hockey, the 4 Nations Face-Off’s final stage is set.

The rivalries, pace of play and the intensity have smashed the tournament’s originally modest expectations. But as we prepare for tomorrow’s marquee matchup between USA and Canada, we’re looking to the past to see what we can learn about the future.

We’ve reviewed the best-on-best event finals spanning three decades — which covers 11 games given the best-of-three format played at the 1996 and 2016 World Cups. With the caveat that the exclusivity of these events limits the sample size, the history of iconic clashes reveals many consistent themes. From the results, we’re offering six intriguing takeaways to set up Thursday’s winner-take-all action.

First, a summary of the last five Olympic gold medal games and three World Cup finals.

🏆 Best-on-Best Championship History, Since 1996

Year	Game	Winner	Score	Loser	Score	Notes
1996 World Cup	Game 1	Canada	4	USA	3
1996 World Cup	Game 2	USA	5	Canada	2
1996 World Cup	Game 3	USA	5	Canada	2	Won series 2-1
1998 Olympics	Final	Czechia	1	Russia	0
2002 Olympics	Final	Canada	5	USA	2
2004 World Cup	Final	Canada	3	Finland	2
2006 Olympics	Final	Sweden	3	Finland	2
2010 Olympics	Final	Canada	3	USA	2	Overtime
2014 Olympics	Final	Canada	3	Sweden	0
2016 World Cup	Game 1	Canada	3	Europe	1
2016 World Cup	Game 2	Canada	2	Europe	1	Won series 2-0

So, what can we learn when the best in the world meet for international bragging rights?

1️⃣ Teams that score first have a big edge.

Scoring first has led to an 8-3 record in best-on-best finals. This checks as past tournament championships have been tightly contested. In fact, no team has come back from more than one goal down to win before. The three teams to survive allowing the game’s first goal? Canada erased Tony Amonte’s opener in Salt Lake City. Sweden wasn’t phased after Kimmo Timonen drew first blood in Turin. And despite trailing 1-0 for more than 50 minutes in Game 2 of the 2016 World Cup, Canada beat Europe in regulation. That’s it.

Whom it favors: Whichever team scores first, of course. While the team that opened the scoring went 0-3 in USA’s 4 Nations round-robin games, ‘first goal wins’ has proven true in 73% of these final games.

2️⃣ The outcome is likely to still be wide open in the final five minutes.

Expect a great hockey game. Or at least a close one. All but two of the past 11 games were within a single shot at some point in the last five minutes. And the two matches that weren’t down to the wire were hardly blowouts. Chris Kunitz put Canada up 3-0 in Sochi with 10:56 remaining, while Patrice Bergeron bumped Canada’s lead to 3-1 in with 10:36 on the clock in 2016’s Game 1 win. Every other championship game was a nail biter. Please don’t leave your couch groove until Thursday’s game is official.

Whom it favors: The fans. Think of your favorite international hockey memories? Amonte’s late go-ahead goal in 1996. Jarome Iginla’s insurance marker in Salt Lake City. Nicklas Lidstrom’s ice-breaker in Turin. Sidney Crosby’s golden goal. Best-on-best has delivered big moments by consistently offering close games.

3️⃣ Championship games have been very low scoring.

The last eight deciding games have averaged just 4.5 total goals. Incredibly, the winning team hasn’t topped three goals in any of the last five times we tuned in for best-on-best finals — 3-2, 3-2, 3-2 (in overtime), 3-0, and 2-1 were the scores. Going back to USA’s 1996 crown, no team has had more than three goals through 57 minutes of action. While anything is possible in one game, either team exploding offensively would break the mold of modern best-on-best history.

Whom it favors: You’d expect the team with the steadier goalie — USA via Connor Hellebuyck — to win a low-scoring game more often than not. Which leads us to…

4️⃣ The team with the better goaltender almost always wins.

While determining the better goaltender leaves some subjectivity, the team with the goaltender regarded as the stronger option at the time of the tournament went 7-1 by my count:

1996: Yes — Mike Richter def. Curtis Joseph
1998: Yes — Dominik Hasek def. Mikhail Shtalenkov
2002: Yes — Martin Brodeur def. Mike Richter
2004: Yes — Martin Brodeur def. Miikka Kiprusoff
2006: Yes — Henrik Lundqvist def. Antero Niittymaki
2010: No — Roberto Luongo def. Ryan Miller
2014: Yes — Carey Price def. Henrik Lundqvist
2016: Yes — Carey Price def. Jaroslav Halak

While Joseph had a better career than Richter, Cujo was curiously leaned on by Canada at a low point in his NHL journey. In 2010, Luongo had the Hall of Fame career but Miller was the world’s best goalie at the time — USA’s loss remains the exception to the rule. And while some might take Lundqvist over Price in 2014, this was right as Price was entering the Beast Mode he’d enjoy for several years that yielded a Hart Trophy. Nitpicking aside, the better goaltender has dominated these finals.

Whom it favors: USA, by a mile. With due respect to Jordan Binnington’s Game 7 Cup win in Boston, Hellebuyck has been the event’s only goalie that hasn’t generated daily national debate on who should start.

5️⃣ The team with the biggest superstar almost always wins.

Wait a minute! Who’s that sliding in our DMs? Well, it’s the Best Player in the Final™️ — Connor McDavid. Seems he doesn’t agree that the star goalie decides the outcome. It’s actually the star forward. And history supports this stance too. In the past, one team has often had both. Not this year.

Going back to the event’s point in time, we labeled the finalist’s best forward based on a mix of scoring rates, awards, and reputation. In less obvious cases, a two-headed monster was assigned.

1996: No — Tkachuk/LeClair def. Sakic/Lindros
1998: Yes — Jaromir Jagr def. Pavel Bure
2002: Yes — Lemieux/Iginla def. Modano/Tkachuk
2004: Yes — Lemieux/St. Louis def. Jokinen/Koivu
2006: Yes — Daniel Alfredsson def. Teemu Selanne
2010: Yes — Sidney Crosby def. Patrick Kane
2014: Yes — Sidney Crosby def. Nicklas Backstrom
2016: Yes — Sidney Crosby def. Anze Kopitar

That’s 7-1 for star forwards as well. Only in 1996 did USA win with top forwards lower in the league’s hierarchy than its opponent’s.

Whom it favors: Canada. McDavid (or Nathan MacKinnon, if you prefer the reigning Hart Trophy winner) wins this battle easily over whomever USA puts up (Auston Matthews overall, or Jack Eichel lately).

6️⃣ A little adversity has helped more often than not.

While logic would suggest whichever team is rolling into a final will win, that’s not always been the case. Plenty of creaky or gut-checked rosters have emerged the winner in best-on-best events.

In Nagano, Czechia had lost to Russia in the round-robin, but won the rematch for gold.
In Salt Lake City, Canada lost 5-2 to Sweden to open the Olympics and tied Czechia to go 1-1-1 in round-robin action. They would win gold over an undefeated American team.
In Turin, Finland was 7-0 ahead of the gold medal game, while Sweden had lost to Slovakia and Russia — it didn’t matter in the end.
In Vancouver, Canada’s early loss to USA (and narrow shootout win against Switzerland) created doubt, yet the group ultimately delivered on home soil.
In Sochi, the narrative is that Canada coasted to gold, but not without anxious moments — a 3-1 win vs. Norway, an OT win against Finland and a sleepy 2-1 quarter-final against Latvia. Sweden had gone 5-0.

Whom it favors: Pick your poison. USA has been stress-free, securing their finals spot with ease. Each of the past three World Cup winners went undefeated, so this bodes well. But at all five Olympics, early losses or some form of adversity helped shape the eventual champs. Having been humbled on home ice Saturday and winning the only must-win game of the event on Monday, Canada is the more battle-tested group.

Visit adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference, QuantHockey.com; international box scores from Wikipedia and icehockey24.com.

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