Five statistical NHL trends to watch in 2025
We’re at the halfway mark of the famously demanding NHL regular season. We’ve all done enough looking backward over the last week. It’s time to look forward to 2025.
Today, we’re exploring five current trends to keep your eyes on over the final 99-day sprint to the playoffs. Some of the trends you’ve surely noticed or sensed but couldn’t quantify. And others may have snuck up on you. The evolution of the NHL’s year-to-year climate and statistical record shifts subtly over a six-month bender of 1,312 scheduled games.
So, we’re cutting through the noise. Here are insights on five major trends shaping and entertaining the NHL heading into the season’s second half.
#1. R.I.P. to the shootout 💀
For those of you who dislike the shootout, we’ve got great news. While it’s not quite extinct, shootouts are certainly on the endangered species list. Check the chart below of the shootout count over the last two decades. In seasons shortened by lockout or pandemic, the total is pro-rated for a full season.
In 2015-16, when the NHL pivoted from 4-on-4 overtime to 3-on-3 overtime, shootouts predictably dropped. There’s been an average of 97 per full season since. This season, however, the shootout rate has further plummeted. Incredibly, there’s only been 30 shootouts through Monday’s action. In 639 games. That’s about one every 21 games.
14 teams have yet to win a shootout. Seven teams haven’t even participated in one. With the schedule nearly half over, the NHL is on pace for only 62 shootouts. That’s an average of 3.9 for each team over the entire season. While this could shift over the second half, it should comfortably be the fewest on record.
It begs the question whether shootouts should be scrapped entirely. If so, we might see teams really push the pace for that second point if it wasn’t assured beyond overtime. But why are shootouts down so much? The shootout’s demise is naturally a direct correlation to the fact that…
#2. Teams have figured out how to score in overtime ⌛
You might recall when overtime had become a problem for the NHL. The league’s general managers felt the possession-focused style that teams use in OT had become tiresome and led to less back and forth action. That was… [checks notes]… just 14 months ago.
While we can debate whether the approach to hold the puck, regroup frequently, and target high-danger chances makes for good theatre, it’s reached a new stratosphere of success.
Action after 60 minutes has three purposes: entertain the audience; determine a winner; and more recently, to limit the once-sexy, now-gimmicky shootout. A decade ago when 3-on-3 overtime debuted, only 61% of overtimes featured a goal. This season, overtime has ended games at a record 77% clip when teams are tied after regulation. So, overtime is certainly achieving the last two purposes.
In terms of excitement, a fan now can expect to see the game ended in the extra frame more than three-quarters of the time. Typically by a star player. And often with speed off the rush. Works for me.
#3. Empty net records will be shattered 🥅
In late November, I dove into the empty net phenomenon sweeping the NHL. Goalies are pulled earlier. The logic is that with a longer window armed with an extra attacker, trailing teams score more goals. That’s true. We’re on pace for 240 goals scored with an extra attacker versus just 138 a decade ago.
But the focus of the article was on how many goals defending teams are scoring into the empty cage. That’s where goals are rising fastest. Has the trend held? Yes, in fact it’s ticked up slightly in the last six weeks. One in 14 NHL goals in 2024-25 is scored into an empty net — triple the rate from 20 years ago.
Nikita Kucherov’s individual empty net point record (14) — set just last season — will fall this year. Through 50% of their schedule, two Avalanche forwards are top-three all-time in empty net points. Yes, really.
Most Empty Net Points, NHL Season
| Player | Season | Empty Net Points | |
| 1 | Nikita Kucherov | 2023-24 | 14 |
| 2 | Mikko Rantanen | 2024-25* | 13 |
| T-3 | Nathan MacKinnon | 2024-25* | 12 |
| T-3 | Blake Wheeler | 2018-19 | 12 |
| T-3 | Jake Guentzel | 2023-24 | 12 |
Rantanen is just one empty net point short of tying the most ever in a season. MacKinnon is right behind him. Empty net points aren’t as repeatable or predictable as more traditional offense since they require opportunities in the form of close leads and ice time. But on a competitive team that leans on its top unit, both Rantanen and MacKinnon should destroy this record. It may also land MacKinnon his first Art Ross Trophy — his fat lead on Leon Draisaitl is fueled by a stunning nine-point edge in empty net points.
MacKinnon is already tied with Wheeler (2018-19) for most empty net assists in a season with nine. And with seven empty net goals, Rantanen is chasing down the record of nine goals co-owned by Alex Ovechkin (2021-22) and Pavel Bure (1999-00). Reminder: it’s early January.
#4. Alex Ovechkin’s ageless goal-scoring pace 🚨
Ovechkin’s pursuit of Gretzky’s goals record has dominated headlines. Washington‘s captain is 23 goals shy of the 895 needed for the crown. It’s inevitable now. But while the record is rightfully the headline, the pace at which the 39-year-old is scoring is equally remarkable.
He opened the season with 19 goals in 23 games. Here are the most goals at Ovechkin’s age after 23 games:
- Alex Ovechkin, 2024-25, 19 goals
- (tied) Gordie Howe, 1967-68, 12 goals
- (tied) Teemu Selanne, 2009-10, 12 goals
That’s next level graybeard sniping. Twenty goals was the most Ovechkin had ever scored through 23 games — and that was 12 years ago. You’ve got the greatest goal scorer ever on one of his greatest starts ever. With the whole world watching. At age 39. And, oh yeah, he broke a bone in his leg mid-heater.
If that’s not enough to showcase his unmatched goal-scoring gifts, well, Ovechkin also can’t skate anymore. Like at all. NHL Edge data tells us Ovechkin has sprinted faster than 20 miles-per-hour only seven times this season. Seven. Ryan Reaves, whose knees are so loose they “pop out” sometimes when he wakes up in the morning, has 10 such sprints. John Tavares, age 34, has 61 sprints already. Ovechkin, the NHL’s oldest forward, and possibly its slowest, most stationary player, is still leading the NHL in goals-per-game (0.79).
So, what’s the trend to watch? Ovechkin has two ageless wonder records in play should he finish the year #1 in goals-per-game. First, he’d be the oldest to do so at 39, passing Bill Cook (36 years old, 1932-33) or Mario Lemieux (35 years old, 2000-01) if you prefer modern times. He’d also break a tie with Bobby Hull for most times leading the NHL in goals-per-game — each have done it eight times.
#5. Sidney Crosby’s point-per-game streak is on the line 🗓️
Crosby was a point-per-game player as an 18-year-old. At age 37, he’s pushing to remain one. If he can pull off the feat, he’d break his tie with Gretzky at 19 such seasons in a career. Here’s the list:
Most Point-Per-Game Seasons, NHL Career
| Player | Span | Point/Game Seasons | |
| T-1 | Sidney Crosby | 2005-2024 | 19 |
| T-1 | Wayne Gretzky | 1979-1998 | 19 |
| 3 | Gordie Howe | 1950-1969 | 17 |
| T-4 | Evgeni Malkin | 2006-2023 | 15 |
Crosby has produced at this level so long that five players he suited up against as a rookie are now in their 60s, led by soon-to-be 63-year-old Chris Chelios. This year’s rookie sensation, Macklin Celebrini, turned 18 in August. Crosby as a point-per-game player is the only degree of separation between two guys with a 45-year age gap. His Adjusted Pace Card below shows his 82-game point pace in a neutral era the last 20 years.
With 42 points through 41 games, Crosby is cutting it close. The trend will be fascinating to watch down the stretch as it could be the third Gretzky record to fall in just over a year. Connor McDavid’s playoff assist total (34) started the party, and of course, Ovechkin’s all-time goal chase is on its home stretch. It’s a fun time to witness greatness.
Follow @AdjustedHockey; visit www.adjustedhockey.com; data from Natural Stat Trick, Hockey-Reference, NHL.com
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