Has scoring peaked in the NHL? You won’t like the answer…
It stings to ask the question, I know.
The NHL returned from the pandemic in autumn 2021 with an offensive vengeance. Goals were flying. Red lights were buzzing. Scoring achievements that slept dormant for decades were suddenly possible again.
No one was complaining.
But as the 2024-25 season takes shape, scoring has quietly regressed. So quietly, in fact, that you might not have noticed. But there’s a lot of noise in the league’s trends that can’t be ignored. These shifts create some captivating questions that could impact the NHL’s future.
Has scoring peaked? After a mini-renaissance, is NHL offense on the decline?
The Overall Trend
At a high level, goals per game can tell us a lot about any league’s scoring environment. In 1981-82, there were more than eight goals per NHL game. Wayne Gretzky famously scored 92 times. From 2010 through 2017, there were fewer than 5.5 goals per game in every season. Only Alex Ovechkin (twice) and Steven Stamkos exceeded 50 goals in those seven years.
The modern NHL fan is typically content with six goals or more per game. In this climate, there’s usually a handful of 50-goal scorers annually and maybe even a 60-goal scorer. 100-point seasons are impressive but nowhere near competing for a scoring title. The NHL’s top talent has a fair platform to thrive and we’re all better for watching them conduct the orchestra.
But now — for the first time in an 82-game schedule since 2018-19 — the NHL is back below six goals per game. That daylight in the chart under the dotted line? We don’t want to see it. Beat it, pal.
The salary cap era’s most offensive season to date was 2022-23, which featured 8,248 goals. This season, we’re trending for 428 fewer. That’s around 13 fewer goals per team. Or around 16 fewer per week league wide. It’s a 5% drop, but it won’t ruin your winter.
In isolation, this might be a trend to monitor. But when we dig deeper, it’s much more concerning…
The Power Play Enigma
NHL power plays are lethal today — and that’s part of the problem. Each of the last four seasons have seen power plays convert at the highest levels since 1990. Victor Hedman wasn’t even born yet the last time teams thrived like this with the man-advantage.
Some combination of changes to zone entries, nearly unanimous use of the umbrella and four-forward units, and greater focus on pre-shot movement from analytics and scouting has elevated power plays. Not yours though, Islanders fans, your power play still stinks.
Despite efficiency surging, we’re still seeing a drop in power play goals per game. Why? Well, there’s only one possible explanation: power plays are slowly vanishing.
The chart above tells us that we’ve been witnessing two dramatic trends:
- #1: Power plays are clicking at the highest rate of the cap era.
- #2: Teams are getting the fewest power plays since the NHL began tracking in the 1960s.
As teams have gotten fewer opportunities, they’ve become more efficient. Or more likely, because power plays have become so successful, teams are taking fewer penalties. Parking the chicken or the egg dilemma, the drop in power play goals — from 1.31 to 1.18 per game in two seasons — is a big part of the scoring deficit. The power play’s disappearing act accounts for nearly 40% of that overall drop in scoring.
Worse yet, if teams continue to commit few infractions and power play success eventually cools down — or penalty kill units level up — NHL scoring will take an even bigger hit.
Have We Reached a Tipping Point?
We’ve dove into the surge in empty netters and overtime winners in this space before. These goals happen during the most exciting states of hockey action — late, close games and 3-on-3 sudden-death.
But the rise of these types of goals adds another layer to the overall offensive decline. Why? Well, putting this all together, we’ve got a league where:
- ✅ Power plays are converting at the highest rate in 35 years.
- ✅ There are more empty net goals than any point in history.
- ✅ Games tied after regulation are decided in overtime more often than ever before.
- ✅ Goalie save percentage is the lowest in nearly 20 years.
… And yet offense has gone backwards, creeping to pre-pandemic levels. No matter how you look at it, the NHL’s underlying trends show we’re at a tipping point in the offense-defense equilibrium. Which brings us back to our question: has NHL scoring peaked?
NHL Goals per Game Without Empty Net Goals, Last Four Seasons
| Season | Total Goals/Game | EN Goals/Game | Net Goals/Game |
| 2024-25* | 5.96 | 0.42 | 5.55 |
| 2023-24 | 6.16 | 0.34 | 5.83 |
| 2022-23 | 6.29 | 0.33 | 5.96 |
| 2021-22 | 6.21 | 0.36 | 5.85 |
*Through February 1, 2025
While empty netters certainly count on the scoreboard, they aren’t the best indicator of the league’s ability to organically create offense. So, we’ve removed them above. The net results show an ever further dip in offense — more than 7% in the past two seasons alone (5.96 vs. 5.55). All signs point to scoring having peaked.
While this might be the first time you’re hearing it publicly, the NHL’s scoring environment is extremely vulnerable right now… Power play success can’t get much higher than it is now, can it? Teams can’t pull their goalies much earlier, can they? More than 76% of overtime games won’t feature a goal, will they?
Perhaps the answer to all three questions is yes. But there’s clearly little rope left to pull on each of these offense-friendly trends.
The Star Impact
We shouldn’t put too much stock into a handful of individual player seasons. Many factors affect how top scorers perform — age, health, teammates, puck luck. But if the NHL can’t hold its status with six-plus goals per game, its premier players’ totals will fade.
A league with 6.3 goals or 5.7 goals per game doesn’t sound like much of a swing, but a 10% drop can turn a 130-point season into a 117-point season or that 50-goal season to a 45-goal season quickly.
While the current schedule’s only about 65% complete, it’s at least curious that individual milestones aren’t on pace with the last three seasons. There were four 60-goal seasons and the 50-goal mark was reached 13 times in the last three years. This year, only Leon Draisaitl (57) and William Nylander (51) are on pace for 50 goals. Similarly, we’ve seen each of Connor McDavid (153), Nikita Kucherov (144), and Nathan MacKinnon (140) hit the 140-point threshold in the last two seasons alone. This year? Pace-setters Kucherov (123), Draisaitl (122), MacKinnon (119), McDavid (113), and Mitch Marner (109) are well back of that trajectory.
There’s lots of hockey to play and the game’s biggest superstars happen to be at ages where their max output is typically in the rear view mirror. But gradual shifts in league-wide scoring — up or down — naturally affect the biggest stat lines most.
What Can be Done?
Now, it’s not time to panic. But it’s time to have a backup plan should scoring further dwindle.
For those who believe the NHL has gotten too tight with its penalty standards, you won’t like this first suggestion… call more penalties. After factoring too many men, delay of game, and unsuccessful challenges, there are very few contact penalties nowadays. Most players are extremely disciplined. No, not you, Brad Marchand. But with teams averaging 21% conversion, every fifth penalty is essentially a goal. Calling more penalties would move the needle, but also runs the risk of reducing physicality even further.
Overtime could be extended to 8 or 10 minutes. This would all but eliminate the shootout. But the goal pickup would be negligible — the league is on pace for only 63 shootouts this year. The NHLPA won’t like it as longer overtime would take a greater toll on top talent.
Offside challenges could be reduced. This change would hardly be noticeable in goal count.
Goalie equipment could shrink (again). With this button having been pressed before over the years and with ever-growing NHL goaltender statures, it might only create a safety issue.
Other than hoping the players sort it out holistically or that sweet, new free agent money promotes scoring, we’d then be looking at drastic changes like removing offsides or bigger nets or any of the disruptive, sport-altering ideas that the NHL — and its fans — generally loathe.
Let’s hope these are conversations that don’t need to happen. But unless trends start to shift, NHL scores will continue to fade even while propped up by empty netters, 3-on-3 overtime, and the highest power play success in generations. Stay tuned.
Visit adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference, NHL.com