After 4 Nations, who should be the 2026 Olympic favorite?
The dust has settled on the smashing unexpected success that was the 4 Nations Face-Off, with Canada crowned the winner Thursday night.
It was an amazing treat, best-on-best hockey for the first time in nine years. But it was, of course, just an amuse bouche before the 2026 Milan Olympics.
Based on what you saw at the tournament, and based on the overall international best-on-best landscape, Who should be the favorite for the 2026 Olympics? It’s not necessarily as easy as picking the 4 Nations winner.
SCOTT MAXWELL: Despite Canada’s thrilling overtime winner in the championship game proving that they are still the hockey mecca of the world, I can’t help but feel like the United States will be the favorite going into the Olympics. For starters, the U.S. was without two of their top five players for most or all of the final game in Matthew Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes, and Canada still needed Jordan Binnington to play out of his mind down the stretch to take it to overtime and win. On top of that, knowing how Canada can make questionable roster selections for these tournaments, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they run it back with the exact same team next year, which, especially in net, feels like it has the potential to bite them in the butt considering there were still a few blemishes that could be exposed in a slightly longer-form tournament with the Olympics. That said, while I think the U.S. will be the favourites in the tournament, am I still allowed to say that Canada will win? At this point, one team needs to prove that they can win, and one needs to prove that they can lose.
PAUL PIDUTTI: Even as a proud Canadian, we can be honest: that game was a coin flip. USA generated more chances in the third period and overtime. Aside from an improbable floater from Nathan MacKinnon, USA was able to contain Canada’s best players for three and half periods. But that’s the thing about short events and winner-take-all formats… at some point, you have to actually win a big game to be the favorite. Until that happens, Canada will be the team to beat and the de facto favorite in Milan — even if we can all admit that the margin is razor thin. In the last 29 years, spanning eight best-on-best tournaments now, USA remains without a title and has finished runner-up three times. In those same eight events, Canada is now 6-0 in championship finals. America boasts a wealth of talent at all positions and will feature a deep and extra motivated team at next year’s Olympics. But Canada continues to deliver knockout punches on the biggest stages and so long as MacKinnon and Connor McDavid are wearing red in their prime, Canada is the easy call for me as the Olympic favorite.
MATT LARKIN: I suspect Scott’s answer will be a popular one among most fans and pundits. After all, the U.S. was banged up, they were missing Quinn Hughes, and Canada scraped by on an overtime winner after the Americans had several grade-A chances robbed by Jordan Binnington. But I see the Olympics differently. The Americans were close to showing us an optimized lineup, at least when Charlie McAvoy was healthy, whereas I believe Canada has a lot more room for improvement. We might see younger, faster players like Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini mature into the lineup by 2026. After it took a few games to find the right wingers for Connor McDavid, Canada might wisen up and bring Zach Hyman. If they’re worried about the Americans’ size and strength, they can invite Tom Wilson. I just think Canada made more mistakes on its 2025 roster construction than USA did – which means Canada wasn’t as close to playing its best lineup. I actually expect a much stronger Canadian team next year. As an aside: I don’t expect we’ll see Russia competing internationally by 2026, but if we did, it would warrant consideration as a top-three favorite.
STEVEN ELLIS: At first, I was going with USA for all the reasons Scott said. But I’m going back with Canada. I know USA will get a bigger boost by having Quinn Hughes back, but Canada showed just how resilient they can be – and I like their odds in Group A. Having Switzerland and Italy should allow them to snag the points they need for a good seeding, and Sweden will be a good test. Finland will have a tougher group with Germany, Czechia and Denmark, while USA could still have Russia if they’re reinstated. So I like Canada’s pathway, plus their speed. I just can’t stray away from them right now.
ANTHONY DI MARCO: Canada for me. They proved on Thursday night that, as long as they get above-average goaltending, they are the best in the world. The Olympics are just 11 months away; I doubt the rosters we saw in the 4 Nations will be all that different. Canada will also likely be better on the back end, as we can’t forget that they were missing three of their starting six defensemen. Yes, the U.S. were missing Hughes and McAvoy, but in my opinion their issue was offensive depth. Canada’s high end talent is just unmatched and their goaltending proved to come through at the biggest moment.
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