Buy or Beware? Assessing Jakob Chychrun’s trade value

Credit: © Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

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With less than two months remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.

Today we’re going to focus on Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun, who was No. 2 on our latest Trade Targets board last week.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 52 Days

JAKOB CHYCHRUN
Defenseman, Arizona Coyotes
Shoots: Left
Age: 24
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 210 lbs.
Cap Hit: $4.65 million AAV
Term: 2 seasons remaining
Trade Clauses: None currently, 10-team ‘no-trade’ list kicks in on July 1
Stats: 24 GP, 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points, 22:43 avg TOI
Career: 7th season (all with Arizona), 361 GP, 58 goals, 162 points, 20:58 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Power Play Specialist, Middle Pair

Chychrun did not make the Daily Faceoff Archetype Rankings in the Top 20 as either a Puck Mover or Shutdown Defender, so the question is, what exactly is his identity? Chychrun is best suited to play in a team’s middle pair and be used as an elite shot threat on the power play.

Scouting Report

There is no question Chychrun produces offense from the back end when healthy. He is on pace for a 17-goal season this year after returning from two offseason surgeries on Nov. 21. Over the last five years, Chychrun is fourth in goals per 60 minutes by defensemen, trailing only Roman Josi, Dougie Hamilton and Cale Makar. His offensive prowess can be contributed to a few things. He has an extremely hard and accurate shot coupled with a quick release, which makes him a threat from distance, especially through traffic. He has good hands for a big man, so he is able to collect the puck, change the angle and let it fly. Finally, he does a great job at positioning himself to take shots prior to the puck arriving, saving himself valuable time which allows him to assess where he wants to place the puck before getting it.

Chychrun’s strength is also a huge asset. He is known as one of the more fit players in the league. When he engages on time, he can win puck battles and kickstart the breakout, or he can protect the puck in the offensive zone to make small plays to his forwards.

That strength also translates to his skating. The son of a former NHLer, Chychrun is a powerful skater with good mobility. His feet allow him to gap well through the neutral zone and challenge offenses. When pucks are dumped in behind him, he can turn and retrieve them without the forecheck doing too much damage. His fluid skating also allows him to recover when he gets in trouble from being too aggressive or making the wrong read.

Buyer Beware: Teams believe Chychrun is an average middle pair guy as a defender. He has the tendency to be overly aggressive, especially without the puck on the offensive blueline. While some coaches love defenders that cut off offense early and often, Chychrun’s reads can sometimes get him in trouble, allowing the opposition to gain speed and make him turn. In the defensive zone, Chychrun’s aggressive nature can lead him to over-pursue and take bad angles in coverage, causing breakdowns in tight and high-quality scoring chances against. He can also get caught watching the puck, failing to recognize danger around him as the weak defender.

One thing opposing teams comment on is Chychrun’s inability to transport pucks out of danger. He struggles to make plays under pressure. Chychrun is known to rim the puck around the boards or throw away possession when he fails to see through the forecheck to find strong outlet passes.

At the offensive end, Chychrun does produce offense at a steady clip, but it’s not because he is a facilitator or is naturally deceptive. He is a cannon that is continually reloaded. He gets the puck through and to the net hard, either scoring himself on the first chance or creating second chances for teammates.

That is an attractive option, for sure, but acquiring teams would probably have to then commit to using Chychrun on the second unit power play – unless they’re willing to go with two defensemen on the top unit. But so many teams use four forwards on the first unit and Chychrun needs someone to facilitate or quarterback the power play and to get it to him.

Perhaps most importantly, the biggest concern any acquiring club would have is health. Over the past six years, he missed a whopping 119 games. He’s had significant knee, ankle, shoulder and wrist injuries, many requiring surgery. Dependability and reliability are some of the biggest abilities in the NHL and while his fitness and strength have allowed him to overcome them to this point, his past history should be considered.

Potential Fits

Ottawa Senators: The Sens have been linked to Chychrun for a while, but no deal has materialized to this point. Ottawa has a stable of exciting young prospects but they lack true depth on the back end. Jake Sanderson is growing and Thomas Chabot can look all-world at times, but Chychrun would give them a more physical presence that can skate and shoot. They have the assets and salary cap space to make it work.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie and Jake Muzzin have all gone down with serious injuries this season. The Leafs typically prefer to add a player with term on his contract given the acquisition cost. Chychrun could slide into Muzzin’s old role on the second pair seamlessly and add a legitimate shot threat on the power play.
Los Angeles Kings: The Kings might make sense if they really value the player and believe he defends better than most of the industry thinks. They have Drew Doughty and Sean Durzi on the power play, so Chychrun is redundant there, and they’re one of the few teams with a surplus of defenders in both the NHL and AHL. But if L.A. thinks Chychrun can help them contend this year and their rebuild is officially over, then he might be a fit.
Vegas Golden Knights: It’s hard to truly ever count out the Golden Knights. They’re always big-game hunting and trying to improve. But money would have to go the other way to make it work – and you know Arizona is game for that if it improves the return. That would mean Vegas could roll out a top four of Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo, Jakob Chychrun and Zach Whitecloud. Not bad.
Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers have multiple holes to fill, and while they are searching for a defenseman to add to their group, Chychrun’s strengths are ones they already possess. They need a defenseman that can make them harder to play against. Edmonton would also need to clear cap space in order to make it happen, and it feels like a real longshot based on stylistic fit.
Florida Panthers: Even though they likely won’t be a playoff team, Florida is intriguing because Chychrun fits their biggest need, which is help on their back-end. The problem here is Florida already has a significant power play contributor in Aaron Ekblad. Plus, Florida doesn’t have the future assets that Arizona is reportedly seeking, since their next first-round pick is in 2026 – as cool a story it would be to send Chychrun back to his hometown.

Sizing up the Market

Other Defensemen Available: RD John Klingberg (Anaheim), LD Vladislav Gavrikov (Columbus), LD Mattias Ekholm (Nashville), RD Erik Karlsson (San Jose), LD Shayne Gostisbehere (Arizona), LD Jake McCabe (Chicago), LD Joel Edmundson (Montreal).

Potentially available defensemen: LD Cam Fowler (Anaheim), RD Matt Dumba (Minnesota).

Pending free agents this summer: RD Damon Severson (New Jersey), Klingberg, Gavrikov, Gostisbehere.

Comparable Trade Returns

There have been very few trades involving young, cost-controlled defensemen with two-plus years remaining on their contract at the NHL’s trade deadline.

Arizona Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong is reportedly asking for two first-round picks (or a first-round pick and the equivalent of a first-round pick as in a former first-rounder) plus one second-round pick.

Ceiling: Seth Jones to Chicago

July 23, 2021
To Chicago: Seth Jones, 2021 1st Round Pick (Nolan Allen), 2022 6th Round Pick (Dominic James)
To Columbus: Adam Boqvist, 2021 1st Round Pick (Cole Sillinger), 2021 2nd Round Pick (Aleksi Heimosalmi), 2022 1st Round Pick (David Jiricek),

At the time of this deal, Jones was 26 and had one more season remaining at $5.4 million AAV. The Blue Jackets turned him into a deal for one first-round pick, one first-round pick equivalent (Boqvist was No. 8 overall in 2018), one second-round pick, and a pick swap in the 2021 Draft that moved them up 20 spots and allowed them to select Sillinger.

Here’s the thing: There probably isn’t anyone who believes that Jones and Chychrun are in the same tier of quality as defensemen. Chychrun isn’t as well-rounded or reliable as Jones. Yes, Chychrun would have an extra year and a half on his deal as opposed to Jones at the time of the trade, but that doesn’t make up for the gap in play.

Working off that deal as a ceiling, it seems Arizona would do well to get a combination of high-round picks, such as a first and second in this year’s Draft, plus a Grade A prospect. That’s probably a bit less than what Armstrong has set as his price. To be sure, Armstrong doesn’t have to blink. He doesn’t have to trade Chychrun, though the player has made it clear he’d like to move on, and Armstrong will probably want to do it before Chychrun gains some level of control this summer when his ‘no-trade’ protection kicks in.

For Consideration: Dougie Hamilton to Calgary

June 26, 2015
To Calgary: Dougie Hamilton
To Boston: 2015 1st Round Pick, 2015 2nd Round Pick, 2015 2nd Round Pick

This also isn’t an apples-to-apples comparable, because Hamilton was a pending RFA in need of a new contract. He inked a six-year, $34.5 million deal with the Flames four days later for an AAV of $5.75 million. Chychrun has term on his deal, of course, which changes the equation.

Summary

Chychrun is a solid defenseman who is paid appropriately for what he brings to your team when healthy. The surplus value Chychrun presented in a flat cap environment will diminish a bit as the salary cap increases, likely this summer. But it’s going to be difficult for any team to justify adding Chychrun at the costs outlined above when he is not going to be your best all-around defenseman. It’s been an old-fashioned desert stare down between Armstrong and interested parties. Someone will have to blink, either Arizona’s asking price or the teams to this point unwilling to pay it after more than a calendar year on the market.

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