NHL career projections: Forecasting the current generation’s final stat lines

Credit: Nov 30, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) and Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl (29) face off from each other in the first period at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

One of the best parts about hockey is projecting the future.

It’s no surprise that three of the biggest days on the NHL’s calendar are its trade deadline, entry draft, and the opening of free agency. None of these marquee events is connected to an actual hockey game. So, while history and nostalgia are great for the soul, it’s possibility that stirs the imagination most. In the spirit of possibility — and probability — we’re forecasting the future today.

A year ago, using the same methodology, the focus was on the careers of a trio of superstars. With a fresh season of performances and data, we’re taking a different approach. We’ve forecasted the career of every active NHL player to reveal the five most intriguing takeaways from the projections.

📈 The Approach

To drive the projections, we’ll be using a method created by famed baseball statistician Bill James. It’s his “Favorite Toy” — which forecasts career totals and the likelihood of reaching a milestone. The inputs are simple: (1) current age; (2) career totals to date; and (3) weighted average of a player’s three most recent seasons. I’ve modified James’ tool slightly to reflect that aging hockey players have a more difficult time staying on the ice given the relative physicality over baseball.

Both health and performance can be fleeting. Each player won’t age the same way and their circumstances can change quickly. Think of Zach Hyman’s ascent or Taylor Hall’s descent. It’s a reminder that any projection system is a best guess based on the player’s present profile.

At the end of the article, you’ll find final stat lines for the top 50 active projected point-scorers. Note: all player ages are as of January 31, 2025 (this season’s mid-point).

🔮 #1: Draisaitl, Matthews & Pastrnak are the only active players with a chance at 895 career goals post-Ovechkin

Now, we know that Alex Ovechkin won’t stop at 895 goals. With another year left on his contract, his final career total will be 900-something. He’s projected at 933 as 2025-26 is expected to be his final NHL season. One year ago, he had a 76% chance of breaking the record, but he defied expectations of his age-39 season.

Three other snipers have a shot at 895. Their collective 32% probability suggests about one-in-three odds that one of them will pass Wayne Gretzky’s famous total. Perhaps most shocking? Leon Draisaitl is slightly more likely (by 0.2%) than Auston Matthews to score 895. Draisaitl is two years Matthews’ senior and only a handful of goals ahead. The reason? Leon is on 60-goal watch and Auston has been limited to just 26 this season. Matthews, however, is 23 goals (and counting) ahead of Ovechkin through his age-27 season.

Pastrnak, criminally underappreciated, is not far behind at 8%. Through his current age-28 season, the Czech forward will have around 389 goals. Ovechkin at the same age? Just 422. Connor McDavid (3% chance last year) falls off the board entirely after back-to-back seasons absent elite goal scoring.

🔮 #2: One of McDavid, Crosby or MacKinnon should pass Jagr for 2nd all-time in career points

Reaching second place doesn’t dazzle the way that breaking an all-time record does. Unlike goals, the points record (2,857) is unattainable in any scoring climate resembling today’s NHL. So, runner-up will have do. Eight active players have a non-zero chance of passing Jaromir Jagr’s total (1,921).

While Sidney Crosby has the higher projected point total, McDavid is the favorite by 9%. At age 37, Crosby has less room for error as he’ll require about 240 points beyond this season. This would require another contract and three healthy, exceptional seasons approaching his 40th birthday. Or the Jagr route of staying productive and hungry into his 40s. McDavid has more runway and is closing on 1,100 points. It’s notable that #97’s probability fell 7% from a year ago after consecutive major drops in point output.

MacKinnon, meanwhile, boosted his chances by 9% with another stellar season. Among Canada’s three-headed monster, the probability totalling 111% suggests that one of McDavid, MacKinnon, or Crosby will usurp Jagr. Draisaitl (23%) and Nikita Kucherov (17%) round out the top five. Pastrnak, Mitch Marner, and Mikko Rantanen have a shot too, albeit on the low end.

🔮 #3: Four defensemen have greater than even odds to join the exclusive 1,000-point club.

1,000 points by a defensemen is extremely rare. It’s become a milestone of a bygone era where scoring was greatly inflated versus today. All eight members of the club were born in a 17-year span — hardly a coincidence. Nick Lidstrom was the last to 1,000 points… in 2009. So, it’s been a hot minute.

With a modest rise in scoring over the last eight seasons, there are plenty of inspiring candidates. Erik Karlsson’s eye-opening 94% probability assumes that the 34-year-old will play four more seasons. With only two left on his current deal, he’ll likely need to sign another contract to bank 1,000 points. Victor Hedman’s four-year extension kicks in for the 2025-26 season — he’ll need a little more than 200 points over the term.

Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, peerless talents still in their mid-20s, are each remarkably near 60% probability. Roman Josi (37%), Rasmus Dahlin (34%), Zach Werenski (32%), Adam Fox (27%), and Evan Bouchard (17%) are the other blueliners above 15%. And if we want to dream big: Hughes (5.2%) and Makar (4.9%) have slim chances at Ray Bourque’s long-held points record (1,579) at the position.

🔮 #4: Gen Z will reclaim the 500-goal club (and maybe the 600-goal club too).

With the fallout in offense that smothered the NHL from the mid-1990s through the mid-2010s, a 500-goal scorer became a rare bird. In fact, only six players (Ovechkin, Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Kane, and John Tavares) debuting in the decade from 2000 to 2009 are likely to score 500 times. Barring a major recession in offense, however, the club’s floodgates should be wide open again.

Incredibly, there are 14 active players between their age-27 and age-31 seasons that have at least even odds of reaching 500 goals. Brayden Point (86%) and Sam Reinhart (77%) may stand out with such high figures but both remain in their 20s, are nearing 300 goals, and are among the league’s best snipers. Mark Scheifele nearly doubled his probability (33% to 65%) with an outstanding age-31 season. Kyle Connor, Filip Forsberg, and Sebastian Aho also moved past 50% this year. While they won’t all get 500 goals, the 14 stars are well-positioned to pursue the milestone.

As for the 600-goal club — currently a 21-member fraternity of mostly 1980s and 1990s players — it too should get some reinforcements. Draisaitl (88%), Matthews (86%), Pastrnak (86%), Tavares (57%), MacKinnon (53%), and McDavid (50%) are solid bets for 600 goals.

🔮 #5: The all-time leaderboards will get a major facelift in the next decade.

The league’s career goals, assists, and points lists have mostly been dormant the last 15 years. Outside of generational talents Crosby and Ovechkin, The Dead Puck Era limited elite players from banking all-time totals. It’s the reason that era adjusted stats and inflation factors are critical to any credible career analysis. Over the next decade, however, we should see significant edits among the leaders.

Ovechkin is set to pass Gretzky in goals in the season’s final month, improbably shattering one of hockey’s most iconic records. Crosby (currently 18th in goals, 10th in assists, and 9th in points) is projected for 12th, 5th, and 4th, respectively. Given his retirement party will be well ahead of his active peers on the list, he could easily retire something like 9th, 3rd, and 3rd all-time in the categories. All in a low-scoring era.

Draisaitl (709 goals), Matthews (706), and Stamkos (702) have lofty career goal projections and would join special company if they can solider on to 700 goals. That’s likely too kind to Stamkos, but the methodology sides with his pre-Nashville history. McDavid projects to earn the second-most assists (1,266) in NHL history, while MacKinnon (1,171), and Kucherov (1,075) forecast beyond 1,000 assists — a milestone notched by only 14 players to date.

When it comes to points, Crosby and McDavid project top five, while MacKinnon, Draisaitl, and Kucherov figure to hang with Ovechkin in the top 15. A lot of strong hockey and good health is needed for the above to become reality. But the projection tool is optimistic this generation will shake the leaderboards.

📊 Top 50 Projected Scoring Leaders

The nature of forecasting tells us that half of the population will fall short of their projection. 33-year-old Tyler Seguin, for example, simply doesn’t have the tread on his tires left to play 1,385 games.

But how fun is this list?

Where’s Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, you say? Their exclusion is a function of age and lack of track record. The tool is very much a “show-me” system that won’t assume promising teenagers absent 65-point seasons are certifiable locks for healthy and productive 18-year careers. The methodology isn’t designed to see potential but rather weighs the recurring pitfalls that get in the way of long careers.

This makes perfect sense as the longer someone has played, the longer we can expect their career to last. The reality is that falling short of potential (Jonathan Drouin), major injuries (Gabriel Landeskog), early retirements (Jonathan Toews) and mid-career plot twists (Ilya Kovalchuk) make banking on every top prospect to hit 500 goals or 1,000 points a fool’s errand.

Visit adjustedhockey.com; all career projections were calculated using data from Hockey-Reference and stats through March 12, 2025 paced to the end of the 2024-25 season.