Edmonton Oilers’ Evan Bouchard among top 10 restricted free agents to watch in 2023 playoffs

Credit: Evan Bouchard (© Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

Earlier this week, I broke down a list of unrestricted free agents who had a lot to gain – or lose – during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Today, we switch our focus to the restricted free agents. They can have a lot at stake during the postseason, too. The prime 2022 example in my mind: Artturi Lehkonen. He was an arbitration-eligible pending RFA when the Colorado Avalanche acquired him at the trade deadline. He became a vital cog for them, burying eight goals during the postseason, four of which were game-winners en route to Colorado’s third Stanley Cup. He parlayed his heroics into a five-year extension at a $4.5 million AAV. He proved his value when it mattered most and almost doubled his salary as a result.

Which RFAs have the most on the line this time around? Here are 10 names I’m watching closely.

Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers

Pos: D
Age: 23
Current cap hit: $863,333
Arb. eligible: No

After Bouchard’s breakout 2021-22 campaign, his game didn’t pop early this season, or he took a backseat to fellow right-shock puck mover Tyson Barrie, or a bit of both. But Bouchard has been on a mission ever since Edmonton sent Barrie to Nashville in the Mattias Ekholm trade Feb. 28. Bouchard closed out his regular season with 19 points in 19 games and has been a force for the Oilers so far in the playoffs, piling up eight points through five games against the Los Angeles Kings. Shortly before the playoffs, our own Frank Seravalli indicated that the Oilers would prefer to go the bridge deal route given their salary cap constraints. Even a bridge-tier AAV in the $5 million range would constitute a significant raise over Bouchard’s entry-level dollar figure. But if the Oilers end up going on a deep playoff run and Bouchard is a crucial component of it, will he price himself into a long-term deal? That would be difficult for the Oilers to execute under the cap. They’ve already committed more than $76 million for next season.

Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils

Pos: RW
Age: 24
Current cap hit: $5.45 million
Arb. eligible: Yes

Bratt and the Devils avoided arbitration last summer, and he inked a one-year, $5.45-million deal following a monster season in which he more than doubled his career high, picking up 73 points. One year and another 73-point season later, are he and the Devils ready to commit to each other this time? It was reported in March they had begun some extension talks. Would Bratt score something in the range of, say, Jordan Kyrou’s eight-year deal with the St. Louis Blues at an $8.125 million cap hit? The Devils have the cap space, but Bratt isn’t even their highest-profile RFA to sign. More on that later.

Bowen Byram, Colorado Avalanche

Pos: D
Age: 21
Current cap hit: $894,167
Arb. eligible: No

Byram’s talent as a rangy, well-rounded puck mover on defense is never in doubt. But he has still yet to exceed 42 games in an NHL regular season thanks to a litany of injuries, the scariest of which have been to his brain. Still, Byram played 20 games during the Avs’ Cup-winning postseason last year and has seen his ice time jump past 22 minutes this spring. If he and the Avs can fight back against the Seattle Kraken and embark on another deep run, with Byram playing a big part, it could up the dollar figure and term on his next deal. But it feels like a bridge is in the offing. It would make sense for both sides; the Avs can minimize risk on what is still a small sample and Byram can prove he’s worthy of star-caliber money if he can stay healthy over the course of a short-term pact.

Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winnipeg Jets

Pos: C
Age: 24
Current cap hit: $6 million
Arb. eligible: Yes

If we are to believe the scuttlebutt that he wants out of Winnipeg, Dubois is auditioning for his next destination rather than an extension with the Jets. He certainly upped his value as a power forward with a strong first half in 2022-23, but his play plummeted down the stretch along with that of several Jets stars. Now, they’re on the verge of Round 1 elimination, unless Dubois can bust out a heroic effort like the hat trick he gave the Columbus Blue Jackets during their Round-1 bubble matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs three years ago. That would endear him to potential suitors.

Vince Dunn, Seattle Kraken

Pos: D
Age: 26
Current cap hit: $4 million
Arb. eligible: Yes

To be clear, Dunn has already earned himself a gargantuan raise. He finished second on the Kraken with a career-best 64 points and was also a sneaky-excellent all-around play driver worthy of fringe Norris Trophy consideration. If he and the Kraken can continue their Cinderella magic, with him logging key top-pair minutes along the way, he should all but guarantee himself a lucrative long-term pact rather than a bridge deal.

Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild

Pos: G
Age: 24
Current cap hit: $787,500
Arb. eligible: Yes

On a per-game basis, only probable Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark had a better season than Gustavsson, who sat second behind him 5-on-5 goals saved above average per 60. Gustavsson platooned with future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury during the regular season but was simply too good to be denied the Game 1 start in these playoffs. Wild coach Dean Evason had considered a rotation but eschewed that idea after Fleury got shelled in Game 2. Gustavsson has held the Wild in it with a .928 save percentage in four games. If he can somehow lift Minnesota out of a 3-2 deficit and into Round 2, he could earn himself an even bigger financial commitment for next season, but he has arguably secured himself starter or at least 1A money already with his spectacular play this season.

Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers

Pos: LW
Age: 21
Current cap hit: $925,000
Arb. eligible: No

If you told the New York Rangers three years ago that they’d have a third-liner with a career high of 39 points three years after drafting the hyped Lafreniere first overall…yikes. The amount of raw talent on The Kid Line of Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and fellow bust-so-far Kaapo Kakko is testament to the Rangers’ depth, but Lafreniere has not stood up and delivered his moment so far in these playoffs, and he sits at two goals in 24 career postseason games to date. There’s every reason to believe his next contract will be a cautious bridge deal unless he flicks a switch this spring.

Timo Meier, New Jersey Devils

Pos: LW/RW
Age: 26
Current cap hit: $6 million
Arb. eligible: Yes

Meier was arguably the marquee forward acquisition at the 2023 trade deadline. His play-driving remained impressive after he arrived from the San Jose Sharks, but he underwhelmed with nine goals in 21 games and has yet to record even a point in the Devils’ first-round matchup against the Rangers. No one doubts Meier’s ability as an elite, physical goal-scoring forward, but he has to be judged at a pretty high standard given he’s owed a $10-million qualifying offer should he and the Devils not strike a long-term deal. It’s likely they make a concerted effort to get one done, but they’d surely like to see him give them more of a lift during this postseason.

K’Andre Miller, New York Rangers

Pos: D
Age: 23
Current cap hit: $925,000
Arb. eligible: No

Miller already has more than 200 regular season games under his belt as a vital member of the Rangers’ top four on defense, playing regularly alongside Jacob Trouba. That makes Miller different from some of the other prominent RFA defensemen wrapping up their entry-level deals; Miller has largely proven himself and is thus more likely than the others to land a long-term extension. He’s already a 22-minute-a-night fixture. While his blend of strength, physicality and mobility make him special, he really upped his offense this season to boot, notching a career-high 43 points, including 39 at even strength. It will be a mild upset if he doesn’t get the max term on his next contract, and he has a chance to inflate the AAV if his Rangers make it far in the playoffs.

Ilya Samsonov, Toronto Maple Leafs

Pos: G
Age: 26
Current cap hit: $1.8 million
Arb. eligible: Yes

Samsonov graded out as roughly a top-10 goaltender in the NHL this season, slowly wresting the starting gig away from the injury-prone Matt Murray. By the time the playoffs rolled around, there was no question Samsonov was the locked-in No. 1. That said: Murray is under contract one more season, with the Leafs carrying $4.69 million of his cap hit, and third-stringer Joseph Woll has almost forced the issue with his play in a small sample size. He certainly seems NHL ready for a backup role next season. A long and fruitful playoff run for Samsonov would go a long way toward making him indispensable and earning him a new deal with the Leafs next season. Perhaps there’s a scenario in which the Leafs play some LTIR tricks with Murray in 2023-24.

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