Five crucial stats to define the 2024 Stanley Cup Final
While some fans consider a Stanley Cup Final between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers a nightmare in terms of whom to root for, rest assured this is an excellent matchup on the ice. Both teams were almost always considered to be Cup contenders this season, even if they had to deal with some early season adversity to get there, and they were two of the best teams going into the playoffs.
With the Panthers and Oilers being two elite teams at the top of their game, the difference maker in this series is going to come down to the most minute parts of the game. A key player, a certain matchup, special teams. It doesn’t matter what it is, if it gives one team an edge, it could be an important factor to winning the Stanley Cup.
So with that, I thought I’d take a look at some of the important stats that might define the Stanley Cup Final. Some might just give us a good idea as to what kind of hockey we’re going to get in this series, and some might point to what ends up giving one team the advantage in the end.
Both teams are top 10 in 5v5 expected goals for and against per 60 minutes
You didn’t think I wasn’t going to celebrate this one?
Partway through the season, I discovered a trend that the previous five Stanley Cup winners either finished in the top 10 in 5v5 xGF/60 and xGA/60, or in the case of the Colorado Avalanche, were just outside in terms of 5v5 xGF/60 but had the shooting talent to make up for it. I then looked at the teams that followed that trend both at the midway point of the year and near the end of the year and more or less said that I didn’t expect every team that made that list to do well in the playoffs, but whatever team did make it far would probably win the Cup.
Well, both the Panthers and Oilers were on those lists, therefore meaning one team on that list will be winning the Cup. But it also means that as hockey fans, we should hopefully be in for an entertaining series. Both teams are excellent at creating and preventing scoring chances, so we’re in for two really strong teams competing over a seven-game series to win the Cup. We rarely get a true best-on-best Final, and while other teams could have fit the bill this year, neither the Panthers or the Oilers are here because of a miracle run. They both deserve it, and that means we should get some entertaining hockey.
Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin have scored one goal with Aleksander Barkov on the ice this postseason
With the Panthers and Oilers being excellent offensively and defensively at even strength, this series is going to come down to where they can find the slightest edge against the other team. For Florida, that comes in their top line center and captain Aleksander Barkov, who has been a shutdown phenom in these playoffs. Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak and Artemi Panarin all had really great years worthy of Hart Trophy votes, but against Barkov in the postseason, they scored one goal between the three of them (courtesy of Pastrnak) in a combined 86:07. They became human, and the Panthers will need that against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
My goodness pic.twitter.com/euSosnFSjR
— Chris Jastrzembski (@Chris_Jast) June 2, 2024Of course, McDavid and Draisaitl are a completely different beast compared to Kucherov, Pastrnak and Panarin. In my preview for the Western Conference Final, I mentioned that Chris Tanev had been on the ice for one goal against at even strength against Jack Eichel and Nathan MacKinnon through the first two rounds, and that him doing the same against McDavid and Draisaitl would be the key to the Dallas Stars winning the series. That did not happen. The Oilers scored four times when Tanev and McDavid were on the ice, and two times when Tanev and Draisaitl were on the ice. Barkov is an excellent shutdown center, but this is a completely different challenge for him and will play a big role in the Panthers’ success in this series.
Both teams are top three in PP expected goals for and PK expected goals against per 60 minutes
A lot has been made about the special teams of the Oilers in the playoffs. Their dynamic power play (1st with a 37.3% conversion rate) is always a part of the conversation with this team, but their penalty kill (1st at 93.9%) has also gotten plenty of attention as they ride a streak of 28 straight kills. But on the flip side, the Panthers penalty kill (2nd at 88.2%) has also been stellar, stifling some top-tier power play units like the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers, and their own power play (6th at 23.3%) has been solid enough. With how hot some of these special teams units are, you’d think some of it would have to be unsustainable, right?
The truth is, not really. Sure, the Oilers are going to allow a goal on the penalty kill eventually, but under the hood, both teams are putting up excellent numbers. In terms of their power plays’ ability to generate scoring chances, the Oilers rank first in the playoffs in PP xGF/60 with 14.41, and the Panthers rank second with 10.23. On the penalty kill, the Nashville Predators have a mere 4 PK xGA/60, but then the Oilers and Panthers are up next with 6.11 and 6.98. Usually special teams can give one team an edge, but for the time being, neither team is giving up an inch on either unit. It will be intriguing to see if one of the two teams slips up in one area, and if that costs them the series.
Nine Panthers have as many as, or more points than, the Oilers’ sixth-highest scorer
There’s no denying that the Oilers have the better star power in this series. McDavid (31 points), Draisaitl (28) and Evan Bouchard (27) have all been electric in these playoffs, and tagging along for the ride are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20) and Zach Hyman (18), who have both been very productive as well. Between those top five scorers for Edmonton, Matthew Tkachuk (19 points) is the only Panthers who has more points than any of them, and it’s only one point more than the lowest scorer. Based on that, you would assume that the Oilers have the better offense in this series.
But, the Oilers offense is also a top-heavy one. There’s a whole 10 points between Hyman and the next highest-scorer on Edmonton with Evander Kane’s 8 points, and that’s where the Panthers make up the offensive deficit. After Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe (17 points), Barkov (17), Sam Reinhart (12), Anton Lundell (12), Gustav Forsling (11), Sam Bennett (10) and Brandon Montour (9) all have more points than Kane, and Evan Rodrigues (8) is tied with Kane. They don’t have any players well above a point-per-game like Edmonton does, but they have been getting offense from more players. If Florida can break even against even one of the McDavid or Draisaitl lines with their matchups, that depth scoring will play a huge role in them winning.
Both teams have just 16 man games lost in these playoffs
This might be a bit of a hot take considering how much hockey continues to cling on to the identity of being a tough sport, but my least favourite part of the playoffs is the “war of attrition” aspect of it, mostly because it ruins the entertainment of the Stanley Cup Final. We should be getting a matchup between the two best teams in the league at their very best, but instead we get two teams with 90% of their best players held together by stitches and duck tape and nowhere near their peak level. Just last season the Panthers Cup run went out with a whimper because the likes of Tkachuk, Ekblad and Montour needed help into their equipment before games, making it a cake walk for the Vegas Golden Knights. Kind of boring, right?
We’ll never know the true health of the Panthers and Oilers until after the playoffs are over, but based on the injuries that we do know, both teams have been remarkably healthy this postseason. For the Panthers, it’s just been five games lost for Sam Bennett and three lost for Ryan Lomberg, and both were healthy by Game 3 of the second round. For the Oilers, they lost eight games of Adam Henrique, who then got healthy by Game 3 of the third round. More importantly, the injuries haven’t been to any of their star players, so we’re in for McDavid, Draisaitl, Barkov and Tkachuk at their best. Pre-existing injuries were a deciding factor for the Panthers’ eventual loss in the Cup Final last year, but it won’t be this season, especially with such a long layoff before the start of this series.
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