The five most surprising NHL players so far in 2024-25

Washington Capitals left winger Connor McMichael

Credit: Nov 2, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals center Connor McMichael (24) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

We’ve reached the early-ish juncture of the NHL season in which sample sizes are just large enough to be interesting. With every team in the 15-20 game range, we can already call it the quarter mark of 2024-25. We have a sense of which teams and players are having banner seasons or disappointing ones.

We can also peruse the league leaderboards in various categories and find ourselves surprised. We all know what kinds of seasons Nathan MacKinnon, Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Ovechkin and Connor Hellebuyck are having. But what about the under-the-radar players wowing us early on?

Let’s examine some of the league’s most shocking individual efforts so far this season and try to understand what they mean.

Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks

Dostal has been considered the Ducks’ goaltender of the future and successor to John Gibson for the past several years. The crease takeover began last season, with Dostal earning the majority of starts, but he quietly wasn’t an upgrade, actually saving fewer goals above expected per 60 than Gibson did. The narrative has completely changed this season, however. An appendectomy shelved Gibson for the first month, giving Dostal lots of runway to solidify himself as Anaheim’s starter, and he’s been fantastic. Among 31 goaltenders with 10 or more games played this season, he’s first in goals saved above expected per 60 and fourth in save percentage. From the Finnish Liiga to the AHL, Dostal has been great at every stop of his pro career, so he’s not the out-of-nowhere NHL success story he may appear to be. Yet the Ducks have still struggled despite Dostal’s performance, sitting seventh in the Pacific Division at 7-8-2. What would their record be without him?

Connor McMichael, Washington Capitals

Pretty much the entire Capitals team has exceeded expectations so far this season, so it’s tough to single out one player as particularly amazing. When Alex Ovechkin flies out to the NHL goals lead, you can only be so surprised when it’s, you know, Alex Ovechkin, soon to be the goal-scoring G.O.A.T. But no one could have foreseen that Connor McMichael would sit just three goals behind Ovi and tied for fourth in the NHL with 12 in 18 games. McMichael has been dynamite on Washington’s second line alongside Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson. McMichael leads the NHL in even-strength goals and 5-on-5 goals per 60 and is sixth in 5-on-5 points per 60. He’s converting on 25 percent of his shots, suggesting he’s been lucky, but but he does carry a first-round pedigree and broke out for 18 goals last season. More important than the shooting percentage is that McMichael sits near the top of the league in shots, scoring chances and high-danger chances per 60 – and first in expected goals per 60. So he’s much more than just a lucky shooting percentage. He’s earning his looks and appears to be experiencing a true breakout.

Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes

Necas’ sublime puckhandling talent was never in question. Carolina drafted him 12^th overall in 2017 for a reason. But he’s been consistently inconsistent in his NHL career, repeatedly breaking out and looking like a star one season and regressing the next. He had 53 points in 77 games last season and, with an incredible 30 in 17 games so far this year, is on pace to beat last year’s output by Game 31. What’s fuelling the massive surge? For one, Necas has loaded up on power play points; he’s at 12 this season after amassing 13 all last year. His average power play time on ice per game has roughly doubled year over year. He’s also been an elite playmaker, sitting third in the NHL in primary assists per 60 at 5-on-5. That latter stat reminds us that he’s made some legitimate strides despite the fact he’s been buoyed by the role increase and a shooting percentage north of 25. It looks like we’re seeing a career year unfold, even if some negative regression tones down the numbers eventually.

Stefan Noesen, New Jersey Devils

Noesen, once a decently regarded prospect as an Ottawa Senators’ 2011 first-rounder, had established a respectable journeyman career as a versatile forward, typically deployed in the bottom six but capable of playing higher in the lineup and on the power play in spurts. In the three seasons before the Devils signed him as a UFA, he graded out well above average as a play driver offensively and defensively. But who saw this year’s scoring explosion coming? His career high is 14 goals and, with nine in 21 games, he’s on pace for 35 this season. It’s debatable whether he can keep the production up, however. Most of his individual play-driving metrics have declined year over year, but he’s playing an additional three minutes a night as the New Jersey’s first line right winger with Timo Meier and Nico Nischier and working with the top power play unit, on which Noesen has notched a third of his goals. His hot start, then, feels pretty dependent on his company. He’s been a nice story, but he could go cold if he’s demoted into his usual bottom-six role at any point.

Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets

My colleague Scott Maxwell wrote an insightful column last week breaking down the Jets’ incredible start and explaining why it wasn’t entirely sustainable – right before they lost consecutive games for the first time this season. Nailed it. Blueliner Pionk epitomized the Jets’ torrid play as part of a second power play unit that was somehow producing at a better rate than the first power play unit in half the ice time. That’s a big driver of Pionk’s borderline point-per-game production, which is conveniently coming during a contract year. Pionk has been an important member of Winnipeg’s top four, on track to carry a positive expected goal share for the first time in his career, but while the other players on their list are breaking out, it feels more like Pionk is playing over his head in his age-29 season.

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