Is Tim Stutzle back on a superstar trajectory for the Ottawa Senators?

Credit: Nov 12, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators center Tim Stutzle (18) celebrates after a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Images don’t get more poetic than Tim Stutzle, right eye blackened on the outside and bloodied on the inside, stoically delivering a “Thank you” to a reporter who noted how fast he looked on the ice minutes earlier.

It was emblematic of an uber-talented player desperate to correct course on his career trajectory and, evidently, learning the physical sacrifice it takes to become a winner.

Okay, it wasn’t that romantic. Stutzle didn’t earn his shiner blocking a shot with a game on the line or anything. He actually just took a puck under his visor during the Ottawa Senators’ 4-2 loss to the New York Islanders last week when a pass from teammate Josh Norris deflected off an opponent’s stick.

But it is true that Stutzle, 22, is playing with a newfound sense of purpose this season, and it was evident Tuesday during his Senators’ decisive 3-0 victory over the division rival Toronto Maple Leafs. He was seemingly everywhere, looking like the fastest player on either team. He crashed the net. He led all players on both sides in high-danger scoring chances and expected goals at 5-on-5. The expected goals also yielded an actual goal, not to worry. Stutzle put Ottawa up 2-0 when he cruised into the slot early in the second period, received a crisp feed from Drake Batherson, patiently waited for Leaf goalie Anthony Stolarz to move first and beat him blocker-side.

It was a stark contrast to the version of Stutzle we saw last season, too often searching for answers during a campaign that was supposed to be his superstar coronation.

Entering the 2023-24 season, Stutzle was the crown jewel of the 2020 Draft, in which he went third overall to Ottawa. He’d exploded for 90 points in 2022-23, including a blistering 51 in the second half, putting him north of a 100-point pace. His eight-year contract, signed at an $8.35 million AAV in September 2022, looked like grand larceny. As had become custom every summer during the rebuild executed by then-GM Pierre Dorion, the Senators were hyped up as a potential playoff breakout team, with Stutzle as much the poster boy for the optimism as any of the team’s other young stars, from Brady Tkachuk to Jake Sanderson. But then…it just didn’t happen for Ottawa last season. The Sens were over .500 for nine days total, during which they went from 1-1-0 to 3-2-0, and were never really competitive after that. Stutzle wasn’t the season’s biggest scapegoat, but he seemed to hit a wall in his development. Not only did he not take the big leap forward expected of him, but he took a step backward. The goal total fell from 39 to 18, the point total from 90 to 70. That said, he wasn’t as bad as the surface numbers looked. His shooting percentage had fallen to a paltry 9.4, and he was actually quite impactful as a puck carrier and play driver. Still, it’s not like Stutzle was sitting there studying at his underlying metrics and assuming he’d be fine. He entered the offseason determined to be a more dominant player going forward.

And now, through 15 games, he has seven goals and 20 points, tracking for a 38-goal, 109-point campaign, the monster year everyone was expecting last season.

“I worked really hard this summer,” Stutzle said Tuesday night. “I wasn’t happy the way I played last year, the way the season finished. It’s a different mindset this year. Just trying to win as many games as you can. Obviously, it helps when our guys keep scoring. But it’s not just me. I think it’s all four lines and all the six guys out there play really hard. It makes it easy for me.”

The Senators are a ho-hum 8-7-0 but have looked more competitive under new coach Travis Green, whose tough practices have instilled a more game-ready mentality. The gains look real; so far this season, they rank top five in the league in generating and preventing shots at 5-on-5. So there’s a case to be made they’re actually better than their record and developing sustainable habits. Someone who can speak to those, of course, is goaltender Linus Ullmark, who recently backstopped some dominant Boston Bruins teams, including the record-breaking 65-win version in 2022-23 before being traded to Ottawa this past summer. He hesitates to call the team’s start “success” but sees playoff potential.

“I think the guys want to be there. They haven’t been there the last couple of years, but now when they get a little bit of taste of it, they understand that, OK, this is actually pretty fun,” Ullmark said. “And then they realize when they win those games, it’s a lot of fun. Because once you actually do work hard and you’re doing all the right things, [you feel] a lot better about yourself and about your team game.”

So it feels like maybe, just the maybe, Ottawa could finally shake up what has become a yawn-inducingly predictable playoff picture in the Atlantic Division every year. How big will Stutzle’s role be in that change? That’s where things get weird. Looking under the hood, he actually hasn’t been as impactful this season. He’s been buoyed by some good puck luck. His shooting percentage is the highest of his career at 24.1 percent. At 5-on-5, he’s generating the fewest shots, scoring chances and high-danger chances of his career by a wide margin, and he’s picking up the most second assists of his career. Does that mean it’s all smoke and mirrors?

Not so fast. Stutzle’s defensive metrics are by far the best of his career so far. His on-ice shots allowed and expected goals against actually rank among the best forwards in the league. Which brings us back to the black eye. Even if luck has boosted Stutzle’s scoring numbers and they may come down a bit, his team play has improved, and he’s looking like a more effective all-around player.

“When Tim brings his A-game, being immature and doing the right things and not forcing play, he’s a heck of a player,” Ullmark said.

“It’s what you see a lot of times in the NHL: there’s other things than skill and points that go into winning, and he’s been a guy that’s bought into it, and Brady [Tkachuk],” Green said. “But there’s a lot of young guys on our team that people talk about. They’re buying into playing a certain way that is conducive to winning hockey, not just scoring hockey.”

So maybe Ottawa finally gets used to life north of .500. And maybe Stutzle takes up permanent residence among the league’s elite players.

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Is Tim Stutzle back on a superstar trajectory for the Ottawa Senators?

Article presented by Fountain Tire

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