How high should Connor Bedard go in 2023-24 fantasy drafts?

Credit: Keith Hershmiller/WHL

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Call us part of the problem if you want. The Connor Bedard hype train is out of control, and we are the conductors. Sorry, but he’s just too darned exciting of a prospect not to hype. He finished with a staggering 71 goals and 143 points in 57 games in 2022-23. He has the highest single-season goal total of any WHL player this century, and he’s still just 17.

We’ve tracked the 2023 NHL Draft lottery odds for the past several months, and we recently proposed which hypothetical trades we’d be willing to make to get that Bedard pick at No. 1 overall. Next up? We shift the context to fantasy hockey.

It’s clear Bedard has a generationally great ceiling, and that applies to fantasy as well. If you’re drafting him in a keeper league, you’re justified in taking him as high as No. 2 after Connor McDavid. But the more interesting question is…where do you take Bedard in a redraft league? What type of production are you willing to project in his rookie year before even knowing what team he’ll land on?

Time to canvass Daily Faceoff’s fantasy-focused personalities as well as some peers from the fantasy hockey community to get their takes on drafting Bedard.

So, fill in the blank: “If I’m in a redraft league for 2023-24, I’d take Connor Bedard as high as ____ overall.”

Matt Larkin, Daily Faceoff: I’d be willing to burn the 25^th overall pick on Bedard. I wouldn’t be willing to take him before the tier of 100-point scorers and players with realistic odds of eclipsing 90, not to mention the top three fantasy goalies and top couple fantasy defensemen. But if we look at the best rookie seasons by forwards in the salary-cap era…Bedard can top Mat Barzal’s 85 points, can’t he? McDavid had an 87-point pace in his injury-shortened rookie campaign, but scoring league-wide has increased significantly since then. Maybe Bedard isn’t a 100-point scorer like Sidney Crosby was as a rookie, but I could see Bedard delivering something like a 45-45-90 line. Too bold? Hey, Auston Matthews sniped 40 as a rookie, Bedard has been more dominant relative to draft-year age, and scoring is up.

Shayna Goldman, The Athletic: It’s tricky to project an exact spot of where Bedard should land because it really does depend on which team. Say he ends up in Columbus, he’s likely going to have a play-driver like Johnny Gaudreau at his side, and definitely on the power play. That really boosts his stock. A Sharks team with Erik Karlsson has potential, but without? That’s a tough landing spot and relies on him to be excellent individually despite his surroundings. The same goes for Arizona. What works for him is that he projects higher than some of the recent first overall picks who needed a little more time to develop, even if he doesn’t have the generational status of some of the best. The thought has to be what he’ll produce right now in a non-keeper league. That’s why somewhere in the 65th-75th overall range feels right. He’s behind the elite game-breakers, and even the 1A stars at this point. But that should fit in with some top-six forwards.

Nick Alberga, Daily Faceoff: Unquestionably, I do believe the hype. Having said that, I think it’s always important to temper expectations with young players — even with ones as disgusting as Connor Bedard. Off the top of my head, I’ll say 45th. More times than not, that’s where I think non-keeper drafts primarily start to break in talent level. You can find good players in that range (with serious potential), but the elite ones are usually long gone. And that’s probably where I would slot Bedard in his first year. Again, a lot of this will depend on what team he ends up going to, but he’s the type of player that can make something out of nothing. Suffice it is to say, I’m erring on the side of caution with my initial ranking.

Steven Ellis, Daily Faceoff: It’s tough, because it really depends on the team. But for the most part, I think 80 points would be huge, and teams like Anaheim or Columbus (specifically with Johnny Gaudreau) could make that happen. By 2024-25, I think he’s a first-rounder, but depending on your league size, we’re looking at the second right now. I’m going with 19^th in his first year.

Brock Seguin, Daily Faceoff: My rankings are always built on the data, and what the projections say, and based on Bedard’s WHL numbers, he will project out exceptionally well in my rookie model. I would have Bedard finish around 90 points in his rookie season playing for Team X. Of course, where he gets drafted will alter that number, but without knowing now, I’d have him around 90 points given his absurd 71 goals and 72 assists (143 points) in the WHL. With that projection, I wouldn’t hesitate to take Bedard at the 1-2 turn. He’d land around No.14 for me in my rankings right now, but if I had the 12th pick in a re-draft, I would scoop him with the first pick of the second round. I looked back at my 2016 Fantasy Rankings and had Connor McDavid at No.10 in his rookie season, so I’m keeping things consistent with generational talents. McDavid was on-pace for 88 points in his rookie season before he got hurt. Teams averaged 2.7 goals per game that year, they’re averaging 3.2 in 2023.

Jason Chen, The Hockey News: If I’m drafting a non-keeper fantasy league right now, I would pick Connor Bedard 30th overall, and either a few spots higher or lower depending on which team he ends up on and what the categories are. Bedard will get plenty of ice time anywhere he goes but, in all likelihood, he’s going to end up on a team with poor depth that will routinely get buried and rely on him so much that late fatigue might be a concern in the second half of the season. In the cap era, only five rookies (min. 40 GP) have averaged more than a point per game: Alex Ovechkin (1.31), Sidney Crosby (1.26), Evgeni Malkin (1.09), Connor McDavid (1.07) and Mathew Barzal (1.04). Bedard has the requisite talent to join that vaunted group, and it might be easier considering the spike in scoring and power play efficiency across the league (Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin scored nearly half their points on the power play), but I’m also reminded that around 40 players will end up averaging a point per game by the end of the 2022-23 season. In the first few rounds of a one-year fantasy draft, there are enough reliable, elite players ahead of Bedard that fantasy managers won’t have to reach for risk.

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How high should Connor Bedard go in 2023-24 fantasy drafts?

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