Will John Tavares’ revival season put Leafs in a cap quagmire this summer?
“Boring” is where John Tavares wants to be.
Six months ago, he was commencing his UFA walk year, his seventh season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, facing questions about his aging curve at 34, and a wide range of outcomes lay ahead of him. If his scoring rate and foot speed continued to decline and his play dropped off dramatically, if would be damaging, not boring, for his team and his wallet.
Today? Tavares is having conversations with media weekly about his sky-high confidence and why the puck keeps going in this season. He’s performing like his vintage self. His 36 goals already equal his second-highest total in a Leaf jersey, and he has seven games to play. He’s re-established himself as one of the league’s most consistently reliable No. 2 centers and net-front scorers.
“It always feels good to contribute, to score, to put the puck in the net, but I don’t try to get too down or get too high,” he said after scoring on a perfect redirection of a William Nylander shot in Toronto’s 3-2 win over the Florida Panthers Wednesday night. “Obviously I enjoy it. It’s helping the team. But I continue to focus on playing well and not try to get too caught up in all that. Just trying to execute and play well day after day game after game, it’s really boring, but it’s putting me in a good spot mentally.”
There’s that word again. Boring. Taking care of himself with a consistent preparation routine every day, he’s predictable in the best way.
“As a coach, you love a player like that,” said Leafs head coach Craig Berube Wednesday night. “You love the professionalism and the mindset he has day in and day out. He’s almost like having another coach around just asking things, what his thoughts are and things like that. But when I watch John, it’s just the preparation daily. It never changes, it’s always this routine and allows him to be successful at a later age in life.”
So, yes, Tavares has proven he’s still a valuable piece for a Toronto team hoping to win the Atlantic Division for the first time ever. But the truth is that “boring” doesn’t do him justice. That description fit him for the first half of the season, but he’s transcended it since. From the 4 Nations Face-Off break onward, he leads the NHL in goals and he’s second in 5-on-5 goals. He buried 13 goals in 15 March games alone. Puck luck has been on his side; the Leafs have actually been outchanced 144-114 at 5-on-5 with him on the ice during his post-4 Nations hot streak, and he’s scored on an unsustainable 30.61 percent of his shots at all strengths during that span. But the finishing also reflects his still-present skill, and his net-front dominance yields high-percentage looks. He ranks among the league’s best in individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes since the 4 Nations.
“Everything seems to be going in for him, right?” said Leafs left winger Matthew Knies. “I think he’s getting to the right spots, getting to the right areas, putting things on net. He’s still doing the little things right, like winning draws and getting the puck in. He’s been terrific for us, and he’s going to be a huge part of this when we get into the playoffs here.”
When we zoom out at the contract year Tavares is having: no pending UFA has as many goals this season. Only teammate Mitch Marner has more points. A year ago, Tavares was the creaky veteran, voluntarily passing off the captaincy to Auston Matthews and diplomatically fielding questions about a potential shift from center to the wing. Whispers indicated Tavares, a hometown boy whose dream was always to play for the Leafs, might sign a sweetheart deal a-la Jason Spezza a few years back.
But has Tavares played his way past the notion of a hometown discount at this point?
If we look at the recent precedent for forwards (a) entering free agency at 34 or older and (b) coming off seasons of 35-plus goals and 60-plus points, Joe Pavelski signing with the Dallas Stars and Steven Stamkos with the Nashville Predators make for pretty obvious comparison points, especially when we pro-rate Tavares’ seven remaining games:
| Player | Year | G | A | P | Contract |
| Joe Pavelski | 2018-19 | 38 | 26 | 64 | 3 x $7M |
| Steven Stamkos | 2023-24 | 40 | 41 | 81 | 4 x $8 M |
| John Tavares | 2024-25 | 40 | 37 | 77 | ??? |
On one hand, Pavelski and Stamkos had much greater playoff track records when they signed their deals. On the other: both players signed with teams playing in states with no income tax, and the salary cap was much lower at the time than next season’s $95.5 million mark.
Let’s say we decide Tavares never advancing past the second round and Pavelski and Stamkos paying no income tax offset each other in terms of Tavares’ AAV projection. If we view the contracts simply through the lens of the rising cap: Pavelski’s $7 million took up 8.59 percent of an $81.5 million cap. Stamkos’ $8 million represented 9.09 percent of an $88 million cap. If we average the two AAVs’ cap percentages, we get 8.84 percent. Apply 8.84 percent to next year’s $95.5 million to project a Tavares number, and we get $8.022 million.
That number feels like a fair and even modest projection for Tavares given how effective he’s been this season. It’s also a north of a hometown discount. The Leafs, theoretically, wouldn’t have much of a problem paying it but, as my colleague Frank Seravalli said Thursday on Daily Faceoff Live, it’s unlikely they can allot any money to Tavares before making the decision on superstar right winger Mitch Marner. He could command up to $14 million on the open market. The Leafs project to have more than $27 million in cap space, but unicorn power forward Matthew Knies is a pending RFA. He’s broken out so much in 2024-25, and his skill set is so singular on the team, that he has earned a long-term extension at a life-changing number. Is there enough money to keep all three forwards? And that’s before GM Brad Treliving even considers exploring outside upgrades.
It’s a good problem to have. The Leafs are thrilled with Tavares reversing the aging curve this season. But it sure does make things more complicated this coming offseason.
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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