How can the Hurricanes convert their elite fancy stats to Stanley Cup success?
Welcome to part 4 of Daily Faceoff Stanley Cup Ingredients 2024-25. I’ve developed a formula consisting of seven common ingredients among recent Stanley Cup champions, using the previous 10 seasons as the sample to study. You can click here for a more detailed breakdown of the inspiration for the formula and how accurately it has predicted teams going deep in the playoffs.
So far, we’ve explored how championships correlate to team weight, top-10 scorers and top-10 goaltenders. Next, we don our fancy stats hats and examine how important it is to consistently win the expected goals battle.
Stanley Cup Ingredient #4: EXPECTED GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
In the first couple years of the Stanley Cup Ingredients series, we measured the correlation between shot attempt share, a.k.a. Corsi, and championships. But I changed the metric for the exercise to expected goal differential last year, because it’s more of an all-encompassing fancy stat. Expected goals measure how many goals a team should score according to the quality and quantity of chances they generate. Expected goals against project how many a team should allow based on the quality and quantity of their opponents’ chances. The differential tells us the gap between the two; if a team has a positive expected goal differential, it should win most of the time given it generates more danger than its opponent in quality and quantity. Of course, goaltending can even out deficiencies in expected goal differential – which is why this metric is just one ingredient out of seven.
How have the past 10 champions performed in 5-on-5 expected goal differential, per MoneyPuck.com?
| Season | Champion | xG differential |
| 2014-15 | Chicago | 4.99 (16th) |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | 29.21 (2nd) |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | 14.70 (5th) |
| 2017-18 | Washington | -19.86 (26th) |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | 22.56 (5th) |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | 21.68 (3rd) |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | 8.48 (11th) |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | 16.72 (10th) |
| 2022-23 | Vegas | 16.02 (12th) |
| 2023-24 | Florida | 25.32 (5th) |
Stanley Cup correlation: Strong
Six of the past 10 Cup champs ranked top-10 in expected goal differential, and five placed top-five. Eight of the top 10 ranked in the top 12, as well. If you win the chance-generation-and-prevention battle more often than not over an 82-game sample size, it’s a strong predictor of playoff success. Only one champion in the past decade carried a negative differential into the playoffs. The Panthers finished fifth last year, and their Stanley Cup Final opponent, the Oilers, ranked first.
Now let’s look at the leaderboard in 5-on-5 expected goal differential this season, through games completed March 24:
2024-25 NHL leaders, 5-on-5 expected goal differential
1. Carolina Hurricanes, 36.35
2. Los Angeles Kings, 31.87
3. Edmonton Oilers, 25.69
4. Florida Panthers, 24.71
5. Philadelphia Flyers, 17.67
6. Colorado Avalanche, 16.40
7. Winnipeg Jets, 15.57
8. Vegas Golden Knights, 14.91
9. Utah Hockey Club, 13.92
10. New Jersey Devils, 9.39
The top 10 is practically a who’s who of powerhouses. It includes eight teams occupying playoff positions right now, not to mention the past three Stanley Cup champions plus the Western Conference leading Jets. The top 10 also remind us how dangerous the Oilers can still be if their superstars can get healthy in time for the playoffs – and that Utah would be low-key dangerous if it managed to sneak in as a Wildcard seed.
The Hurricanes and Kings always seem to fare well in these metrics because they’re so consistently strong defensively. What holds those two clubs back is the fact they’re often missing other key Stanley Cup Ingredients. The Kings’ lack of star power keeps them from finishing all those chances; the Canes have become the poster children for the limitations of advanced stats. They always drive the play at an elite level, but they’ve struggled to get reliable playoff goaltending and haven’t finished a season with a top-10 scorer in 12 years.
That isn’t to pick on the Canes. It’s simply a reminder that you need many ingredients to become a champion. Case in point: while Carolina leads the league in expected goal differential at 5-on-5, it sits 26th in PDO, the stat combining team save percentage and shooting percentage to approximate luck. Struggling to finish off your scoring chances – or stop the puck when your opponent gets chances – can negate strong play driving.
Previous instalments of Stanley Cup Ingredients 2025
Team Weight
Top-10 Scorer(s)
Top-10 Goalie
Next up: Penalty killing efficiency
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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