Is Matthew Schaefer the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2025 NHL Draft? It’s starting to look that way

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis
Is Matthew Schaefer the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2025 NHL Draft? It’s starting to look that way
Credit: Eric Young/Dream Bigger Media

NHL teams crave defensemen with elite skating and puck skills, the Cale Makars and Quinn Hugheses of the world.

So, meet Matthew Schaefer – the best defenseman in the 2025 NHL Draft by a large margin. And at this point, he might be the top prospect overall.

For the most part, James Hagens has been heralded as the projected No. 1 for some time now. The former USA Hockey National Team Development Program standout owns the record for most points at both the U-17 World Challenge and U-18 World Championship and is playing at more than a point-per-game pace as a freshman at Boston College. In a sense, it feels like some might be undervaluing him because he’s not scoring at a crazy rate in college, and he’s benefiting from top NCAA stars Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault.

Of course, if you’ve watched Hagens in any meaningful way over the past three years, you know he’s a guy that makes everyone around him better. Think: Jack Hughes.

There’s so much to love about the likes of Hagens, Porter Martone and Michael Misa. But Schaefer is just on another level right now. Many in the scouting world are starting to think his dynamism and outright dominance with the puck could result in him going No. 1 next June.

Daily Faceoff’s Jeff Marek said Schaefer’s skating reminds him of Jay Bouwmeester. Other scouts said his puck work and deceptiveness reminds them of Makar.

Schaefer was at his best at the CHL USA Prospects Challenge this week, earning player of the game honors in the 6-1 opening night win over the United States. Schaefer scored a goal and an assist, but he also had some key blocks – including one without a stick and just one glove.

The two-game sample wasn’t much, but many scouts left with the same takeaway – Schaefer was on another level out there. A short mid-week tourney isn’t enough to boost a player up the rankings. But with his body of work just since April of 2024, it’s hard to deny just how dominant of a player Schaefer can be.

For starters, Schaefer earned some awards for top defenseman at the U-18 World Championship despite being a year younger than everyone else. From there, Schaefer was the best defender at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, helping to solidify himself as the clear top defender in the draft class.

Schaefer started the 2024-25 OHL season on the sidelines, missing nine games due to mononucleosis. But that hasn’t slowed him down – he’s on pace for about 25 goals and 80 points.

Schaefer struggled as a rookie after going No. 1 to the Erie Otters in 2023. He was eating minutes as a 16-year-old, often matching up against the league’s best and oldest players. The numbers were underwhelming – just 17 points in 56 games. He has already surpassed that in 14 games this season.

“Between the personal tragedies and just the pressure of being a key player for a team at such a young age, you can’t fault him for a quiet rookie season,” one scout said. “It took him a long time to adjust and feel confident in himself.”

Teams searching for a future No. 1 defenseman will be all over Schaefer. He’s all about the activation game: he’s looking to exploit you on the rush and take the puck down the ice. Schaefer is always pressuring players to make a quick move, giving them very little time to think before stealing the puck himself.

There isn’t a better, more deceptive skater on the blueline in this draft class, with his mobility being among the best we’ve seen in recent draft classes. Schaefer is as good of a puck distributor as you’ll find, too, and it’s only a matter of time until he pops off in the OHL. That’s partly because he thinks that game is at such an advanced level at his age, often luring opponents in before pulling off a deceptive deke and getting the puck where it needs to be.

Like many other elite puck-moving, mobile defenders in the NHL, Schaefer is adaptable. He’s got so many moves in his playbook depending on what he sees. Schaefer will pinch when there’s an opening. He’ll stay back if he fears his D-partner is about to get caught out. He’ll go end-to-end if he thinks nobody else can get the play done like he can.

Opponents can’t figure him out him. Simple as that.

“There isn’t a single player I’d hate to go up against 1-on-1 more in the league than him,” an OHL forward said.

Some scouts are starting to accept Schaefer at No. 1, while others have been believers from the start.

“I’d take him first in a heartbeat,” one NHL scout said. “Every team craves a defenseman like Schaefer. The raw talent has been there ever since he jumped into the OHL, but he just needed to show it. And he’s showing it in spades this season.”

It’s only November, so there’s so much hockey still left to be played between now and the NHL Draft. But between now and late June, there’s a legit chance we could see Schaefer on Team Canada at both the World Juniors and another U-18 World Championship, the OHL Top Prospects Game and a decent playoff run, too.

Those are a lot of opportunities for Schaefer to cement himself as the draft’s top prospect.

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