It’s time for Doug Armstrong and the Blues to tear it down
On Monday night, the St. Louis Blues hosted the Vegas Golden Knights with a chance to draw within two points of the champs and the final Wildcard berth in the Western Conference. Few could have predicted the matchup would have such gravity two weeks ago, but by winning six of their last seven, the Blues breathed new life into an often frustrating 2023-24 campaign. If they could win the suddenly momentous tilt, St. Louis could apply real pressure on a Vegas team that has struggled for consistency despite its immense talent.
The teams met in a March contest with all the intrigue and intensity of playoff hockey. After Pavel Dorofeyev capitalized on a coverage breakdown to score early, captain Brayden Schenn raised the temperature at the Enterprise Center in an exhausting scrap with original Knight Brayden McNabb, who had just laid out Brandon Saad. The fight had the desired effect on the atmosphere in the arena, and as the Blues struggled to solve goaltender Logan Thompson for two periods and change, the frenzied crowd agonized over a pair of cross bars and Kevin Hayes’s oh-so-close Forsberg move. Finally, during the third, a recovered Saad tied the game late on a dish from none other than Schenn to send the building into hysterics. The Blues love their melodrama.
BRANDON SAAD HAS DELIVERED THE BIGGEST GOAL OF THE SEASON!!!!! pic.twitter.com/BzjagbqusT
— BluesMuse (@STLBluesMuse) March 26, 2024Just 30 seconds into overtime, the storybook circumstances reached ridiculous proportions after rangy defenseman Noah Hanifin tripped Pavel Buchnevich and gave St. Louis’s deadliest sniper a penalty shot for the game. Thompson snared the Russian’s slapshot, though, and 18,000 home fans groaned in unison, sure he had just missed their best shot at playoff hockey. Eighteen seconds and another net-front breakdown later, they went silent altogether; Jonathan Marchessault’s 39th tally of the season ended the game and, in all likelihood, the Blues’ year.
The two teams will meet again on April 4, but given the six-point cushion now separating the clubs, it’s hard to believe that matchup will have the same importance. The loss was a microcosm of St. Louis’s post-Stanley Cup history; they played hard, if messily, but the other guys were too good to keep down for 60 minutes. Firmly in the NHL’s doldrums, it’s time for GM Doug Armstrong to give up on retooling and start to rebuild. His path to clearing out cap space and accruing future assets starts with Buchnevich.
Buchnevich is not a star of Jake Guentzel’s caliber, but he’s not far off; the former Ranger averages 32 goals and 79 points per 82 games as a Blue. A pending UFA group including old friend Vladimir Tarasenko, Anthony Duclair, and Jason Zucker was deep enough to convince the runners-up for Guentzel’s services that they didn’t need to spend big on ‘Buchy,’ giving the second-best winger on the market a stay of execution in the Midwest.
In the summer, things will be different; bruised egos will force 15 playoff teams that did not win the Cup to re-evaluate their positions on the player, who is 28 for and under contract through 2025. Buchnevich will command a first and a legitimate prospect, and the price could rise if the Blues retain part of his $5.8-million salary and/or an extension is baked into a trade. That kind of haul can reinvigorate an aging, low-ceiling group like Armstrong’s.
The newly minted Team Canada GM will need to get his hands dirty to make further progress, and that means divorcing himself from sentiment and jettisoning some heroes from the 2019 Stanley Cup run. That shouldn’t be a problem; Armstrong has traded veteran leaders like Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk and, from the 2019 team, Ryan O’Reilly and Tarasenko. Armstrong could add to his cynical CV ahead of the 2024-25 season by parting ways with defenseman Colton Parayko and netminder Jordan Binnington, both of whom have term on their contracts at $6 million+ AAV.
Parayko has recovered his confidence this season, joining the attack to score 10 goals for the first time since 2019-20. He and Nick Leddy have ugly metrics but suffer from brutal usage on an often overmatched team. Watch the games, and you’ll see a rapid, 6’6″ righty who clears top-four minutes without taking penalties. It’d be easier to list the teams that aren’t in the market for a guy like that. Calgary has expressed interest in the past, and the Winnipeg Jets stand out as a fit. It would hurt on the ice, but should that be a hang-up for a team stuck in the murky middle?
While Parayko has suffered for his role on a team that concedes the fifth-most shots against in the NHL, Binnington’s play has kept it afloat in 2023-24. Egged on by competition from Joel Hofer (2.73 GAA, .916 SV%) and slightly improved defensive play (it could hardly be worse than 2022-23), ‘Winnington’ has stopped his decline dead in its tracks. Allowing 2.83 goals on average isn’t dominant per se, but on a club that trots out the charred husk of Torey Krug (-26) for 20 minutes a night, it has made all the difference; average numbers on a below-average team are a heck of a lot more valuable than great numbers on a good one.
Could a reunion with former platoon-mate Jake Allen in New Jersey be in the cards? Devils’ GM Tom Fitzgerald has promised to go “big-game hunting” for a goalie in the summer, and ironically, a notorious big-game goalie could be available. Armstrong has his replacement in Hofer and could take a handsome payoff to let someone else figure out whether the 30-year-old’s resurgence will last.
Armstrong doesn’t need to sell everything not bolted down for the Blues to improve. Two-way center Robert Thomas (73 P in 72 GP) and sniper Jordan Kyrou (89 G since 2021), aged 24 and 25, respectively, are legitimate top-six players with room to improve. Youngsters like Hofer, emerging net-front presence Jake Neighbours (25 G in 72 GP), and rookie defenseman Matt Kessel have inspired optimism. Add some top AHL prospects (Bolduc, Dean) and a trio of 2023 first-round picks (Dvorsky, Stenberg, Lindstein), and the Blues have a nice young core. Still, Justin Faulk, Krug, and even Schenn are past their best years and signed (with trade protection, naturally) through 2027. Armstrong’s place in team history is ironclad; to secure its future despite near-sighted, depreciating contracts of his own design, he should recoup value from the veterans that still have any before it’s too late.
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