Juraj Slafkovsky’s Montreal Canadiens could be better than you expect in 2024-25

Mike Gould
Mike Gould
Juraj Slafkovsky’s Montreal Canadiens could be better than you expect in 2024-25
Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

They won’t end Canada’s decades-long Stanley Cup drought next spring, but there’s reason to believe the Montreal Canadiens could make more noise than you expect in the upcoming 2024-25 season.

The Habs are three years removed from their last playoff appearance, in which they shocked the hockey world by advancing all the way to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning. They followed that up with another major surprise in the 2021-22 season: finishing dead last in the entire league.

Now, it’s Juraj Slafkovsky, the player the Canadiens drafted with the No. 1 overall pick after that last-place season, who could give them a fighting chance to compete with the aging Lightning, among other teams, in the Atlantic Division this year.

In the wake of his terrific performance during the second half of the 2023-24 season, Slafkovsky signed an eight-year extension with the Canadiens on July 1 that will see him paid $7.6 million a year through 2033. It’s a deal that pretty much already represents fair market value for a player who, despite only having turned 20 in March, has become one of the best power forwards in the NHL.

Beyond his unique 6-foot-3, 238-pound frame and his habit of coming through at big moments, Slafkovsky plays with a star quality that just can’t be taught. The newer generation of NHL fans has taken to describing what he has as an aura, and it’s a pretty accurate description — in the latter half of the 2023-24 season, Slafkovsky routinely used his natural gifts to bend games to his will.

In 40 games with the Canadiens from January 15 to April 16, Slafkovsky racked up 16 goals and 35 points while averaging 19:16 of ice time per night. The Slovak winger also ranked fourth among regular Canadiens forwards over that timeframe (behind Joel Armia, Nick Suzuki, and Brendan Gallagher) with a 49.48 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick.

It’s barely been two years since the Canadiens picked Slafkovsky at the very top of the 2022 NHL Draft. At the time, and throughout the 2022-23 season, they were widely criticized by fans and media members alike for taking Slafkovsky over Shane Wright, Logan Cooley, and Simon Nemec. It’s still early to make any definitive proclamations, but it’s looking more and more like the Canadiens made the right call.

Coming off his first 20-goal, 50-point NHL season, Slafkovsky should start the upcoming campaign as one of the Canadiens’ go-to options in almost every offensive situation. He scored at a 71-point pace over the back half of 2023-24; with a bit of luck, and a more mature supporting cast, 80 points could be within reach in 2024-25. After all, this will likely be Slafkovsky’s first year as a certified top-six (or top-line) forward in Montreal from Day 1.

But it’ll take a lot more than Slafkovsky for the Canadiens to move past the Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, and Detroit Red Wings in the Atlantic Division standings, let alone the Lightning (even without Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev). But here’s the good news: Montreal has a collection of other forwards on the verge of breaking out, and their defense is replete with intriguing young options.

We’ve all seen what Nick Suzuki, fresh off a career-best 77 points, can do in this league. Cole Caufield is due for a bit of a bounce-back after being held to just 28 goals over 82 games last season, particularly now that he’s more than 18 months removed from undergoing shoulder surgery (which often has lingering effects on players after they return to game action).

But one player whose potential remains mostly untapped is Kirby Dach, the No. 3 overall pick in 2019 who tore his ACL and MCL in just his fifth period of game action last season. The 6’4″, 217-pound forward has all the tools in his arsenal to become a legit top-six center, and it’d be fascinating to see what the more established version of Slafkovsky could do on a line with him.

A Canadiens forward group that includes Caufield-Suzuki and Slafkovsky-Dach duos operating at their very best on separate lines could be a genuine threat in the enigmatic Atlantic Division, particularly if the likes of Alex Newhook and Joshua Roy can fill in the top-six gaps or help form a strong third line. (Unfortunately, 2024 first-round picks Ivan Demidov and Michael Hage are still a year or two away).

The jury is very much still out on whether David Reinbacher can become the No. 1 defenseman the Canadiens clearly hope he can be, but there’s a chance he could play his first NHL games in Montreal this coming season. Right now, Montreal’s defensive group after Mike Matheson and Kaiden Guhle is as jumbled as it gets, but it’s easy to imagine a slick, offensive right-hander in Reinbacher becoming the perfect foil to the rugged Arber Xhekaj.

One of Lane Hutson, Justin Barron, Logan Mailloux, Jordan Harris, and Jayden Struble emerging as a legit difference-maker on the blue line would make it a lot easier for the Canadiens to compete this year, especially after they opted not to make any external additions to their defensive group this summer. The Habs certainly don’t have a Moritz Seider or Jake Sanderson, much less a Victor Hedman or Rasmus Dahlin, which is why the playoffs will likely be out of reach for them this year.

That said, it’s worth noting that Sam Montembeault is coming off a genuinely great year behind that so-so defense and deserves to be looked at as one of the better goalies in the Atlantic. According to Evolving-Hockey, Montembeault finished 10th in the entire league with 18.39 goals saved above expected last season, putting him just behind Bruins-turned-Senators goalie Linus Ullmark over the same number of games played.

After three consecutive years of being firmly entrenched in the race for the best possible draft lottery positioning, the Canadiens aren’t quite ready for a complete turnaround yet. However, the emergence of Slafkovsky as a potential superstar to add to their already compelling forward group could push them into the position to make life more difficult for their Atlantic Division rivals this season.

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