Ranking the fits for nine plausible Mitch Marner destinations
The next month shapes up to be extremely interesting in the NHL, and pending UFA Mitch Marner has a lot to do with that.
The superstar right winger, 28, is fresh off a career-best 102 points in 2024-25. Over the past five seasons, only six players have more points, only two have more assists, and no players have more takeaways. Normally, an NHL team would do anything to retain a player that productive, but the situation between Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs is unique.
The Leafs own the league’s longest active playoff berth streak at nine seasons, coinciding with Marner’s nine seasons with them, yet have two series wins to show for it. As core members Auston Matthews and William Nylander inch deeper into their primes, the urgency to win in the present has skyrocketed. That’s why Brendan Shanahan is officially out as team president after the team opted not to pursue a new contract with him. Marner ranks among the franchise’s best regular-season performers ever, but his tendency to disappear deeper in playoff series doesn’t even need to be rehashed at this point; it’s a known narrative. The Leafs, then, will consider dispersing his expected $14 million asking price among multiple veteran players instead.
And, of course, they may have no choice but to do so, as Marner may be done playing in Toronto regardless. He’s lived his dream as a local boy since they drafted him fourth overall in 2015, but the pressure on him and his family has been smothering, and it’s possible the Leafs permanently burned the bridge when they asked him to waive his no-movement clause for a trade to the Carolina Hurricanes in March.
We can’t say 100 percent that Marner’s time with Toronto is done. But everything we’re hearing at Daily Faceoff suggests it’s almost certainly the case. Call it at least 90 percent that Marner signs with a new team in July.
Where, then, could the top UFA on the market end up? Let’s break down the realistic destinations and rank them by fit.
Disclaimer: my colleague Jeff Marek mentioned the Dallas Stars as a sleeper, but since a Jason Robertson trade would have to come first, I can’t include them just yet.
Cap space projections courtesy of PuckPedia
1. Vegas Golden Knights
Why it’s a fit: If Marner simply wants to resume his pursuit of the Stanley Cup, the Golden Knights make plenty of sense as a team that stops at nothing to pursue it and habitually punts picks and prospects to put their best possible team on the ice every year. On top of taking the Cup in 2022-23, they’ve won 12 playoff series since debuting in 2017-18; you have to reach back to 1992-93 to collect the Leafs’ past 12 playoff series wins. Marner would slot perfectly alongside Jack Eichel given their speed and two-way sensibility.
Why it isn’t: Vegas only has $9.62 million in projected cap space, not nearly enough for Marner, even when we factor in that Nevada has no state income tax. It may require a sign-and-trade to make a Marner acquisition fit. Who would go Toronto’s way in that scenario: William Karlsson? Mark Stone? Shea Theodore? Nothing would surprise from the perspective of Vegas and GM Kelly McCrimmon, as the franchise has repeatedly and remorselessly dumped key cogs in pursuit of the next shiny thing over the past eight years. But each of those players has some form of movement restriction on his deal, and not everyone wants to play in the blinding light of Toronto. This would be a complicated trade to execute even if the hockey fit is perfect for Marner and for what Toronto could acquire for him.
2. Los Angeles Kings
Why it’s a fit: The Kings featured many characteristics of a true Stanley Cup contender this season. They were deep, they were arguably the NHL’s best defensive team, and they got elite goaltending from Darcy Kuemper. But despite doing a good job driving the play at both ends, they ranked 14th in goals and 27th in power-play efficiency. Marner isn’t a sniper, of course, but he’s an elite facilitator; only four forwards averaged more primary assists per 60 on the power play this past season. No King has scored 100 points since Wayne Gretzky in 1993-94; Marner could fill their superstar void and forge a new long-term forward core alongside Quinton Byfield and Adrian Kempe as future Hall of Famer Anze Kopitar inches closer to this end of his career.
Why it isn’t: The Kings can afford Marner at first glance, with $21.7 million in cap space. But some of it will go toward extending RFA right winger Alex Laferriere and perhaps re-signing minute-muncher defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov. Our pals at AFP Analytics project a $7.6 million AAV for Gavrikov and $13 million for Marner, so once we factor in Laferriere, the Kings run out of room in a hurry. It’s worth it to pursue Marner, of course, but it does appear new GM Ken Holland would have to move some veteran money out to make the contract work.
3. Anaheim Ducks
Why it’s a fit: The Golden Knights and Kings would offer relative anonymity compared to what Marner experiences every time he leaves his house in Toronto, but Orange County is even quieter as a market. It’s a great place to sign if you want the California sun and for few people to recognize you on the street. The Ducks enter the offseason with $38.69 million in projected cap space. If there’s a team equipped to overpay and outbid the competition, it’s Anaheim, even once you factor in the extensions owed to crucial RFAs Mason McTavish and Lukas Dostal. The Ducks are also clearly a team on the rise after promising youngsters such as center Leo Carlsson and defenseman Jackson LaCombe took major steps forward this season – with some more big-time prospects still coming, most notably Beckett Sennecke. Anaheim improved from a .360 to a .488 points percentage this past season and, whether we agree with the hiring or not, we can’t deny Joel Quenneville is a big upgrade at head coach from a pure hockey perspective. The Ducks could be a playoff team this coming season.
Why it isn’t: There’s still a big difference between could and will make the playoffs. Even a rising Ducks team could be a couple years away from serious contention. Is Marner willing to prioritize money over his competitive fire and wait a couple years before he’s part of a deep playoff run? Also, there’s a case to be made that going from Toronto to Anaheim would be too much of a culture shock in terms of the fan base. The Ducks drew 15,806 fans per game in 2024-25 and aren’t known as a rabid fan base overall, with all due respect to any of their diehards reading this. Marner once quipped that the Leafs are treated like gods in Toronto; is he willing to become completely faceless?
4. Carolina Hurricanes
Why it’s a fit: If Marner prioritizes team quality, the Canes are as strong a fit as anyone. They’ve played .654 hockey under seven seasons with Rod Brind’Amour behind their bench, reaching three Eastern Conference Finals over that span. Like the Kings, they play consistently disciplined two-way hockey and, like the Kings, they fall short annually largely because they lack a superstar to take them on his back. The Canes finally seemed to have one in Mikko Rantanen, but he wasn’t a fit. Given Marner’s conscientious two-way IQ, it feels like he’d buy into Brind’Amour’s system better. The Canes have most of their core roster still intact, minus the presumed departure of disappointing blueliner Dmitry Orlov, and they have some good prospects ready to contribute in the present, meaning they’re set up to contend for many more seasons. Oh, and they have $28.42 million in cap space.
Why it isn’t: We know Marner blocked a trade to Carolina a few months ago. It’s possible he simply did so because his wife was seven months pregnant at the time and he wanted to see things through with Toronto in the final season of his contract, but we can’t read his mind, so the fact he already rejected this team as a destination has to lower its ranking. From Carolina’s perspective: you’re a team known for contending but falling short in the playoffs every year. Is the solution to add the poster boy for playoff disappointment? Also, we know the Canes have the cap space…but owner Tom Dundon isn’t known for splurging in the absolute top tier of free agency.
5. Chicago Blackhawks
Why it’s a fit: The allure of playing with Connor Bedard is real, especially since Marner has already plied his trade so successfully alongside a deadly goal-scoring center in Matthews. The chemistry fit could rapidly unlock Bedard’s superstardom after a disappointing start to his career relative to sky-high expectations. Chicago GM Kyle Davidson has pretty clearly been anticipating a summer of big-game hunting, clearing out cap space and mostly handing out shorter-term deals to veterans. It feels like he was working toward this moment, in which he has $29.2 million available and the Bedard extension not going on the books until 2026-27. With a top-three pick in the Draft again, the Hawks are positioned to add another premium talent to their core, too, likely a forward, whether it’s Michael Misa, James Hagens or Porter Martone.
Why it isn’t: If we’re being blunt, Chicago has been a laughingstock on the ice for a while. Only the San Jose Sharks have won fewer games in the past five years. The Seattle Kraken, hardly a powerhouse, have won more than Chicago despite only existing for four seasons. If Marner chooses the Hawks, he has to be at peace with missing the playoffs for the first time in his career and perhaps not seriously chasing the Cup for another half decade. He could even be past his prime by the time this team peaks again.
6. Columbus Blue Jackets
Why it’s a fit: Columbus is an underrated market, offering enough obscurity compared to Toronto while still boasting a devoted and hockey-centric fan base. The Jackets have also reached their critical mass of prospects and begun their ascension, missing the playoffs by two points this past season. They’re a deep team led by a dominant defenseman in Zach Werenski and emerging stars up front in Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko. Adding a talent of Marner’s ilk could push this team forward as a top threat in the Metropolitan Division, which has so many teams’ contention windows in flux right now.
Why it isn’t: While the Blue Jackets have $40.41 million in cap space, they have a lot of work to do with it. Blueliners Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro are UFAs and must be re-signed or replaced; rugged forward Dmitry Voronkov is an RFA; and the team’s 2026 RFAs, extension-eligible this July, include Fantilli and Kent Johnson. There’s still enough dough for Marner, but not as much as it appears, and signing him could threaten the team’s depth. Also, if Marner wants to leave a big-time hockey market, is he better off going all the way and playing for a Sun Belt team? Columbus would be a half measure.
7. Utah Mammoth
Why it’s a fit: Utah and owners Ryan and Ashley Smith want to contend now. The Mammoth compiled a vast prospect pool and are reportedly open to dealing the fourth-overall pick in June’s NHL Draft after winning the second lottery slot and moving up. Coming off an 89-point season, they aren’t many pieces away from a playoff spot. Clayton Keller is playing at his peak, young forwards Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther are just beginning their ascensions, Mikhail Sergachev has established himself as Utah’s No. 1 defenseman, and the Mammoth hung in the race pretty well this season despite top-four blueliners Sean Durzi and John Marino missing 52 and 47 games, respectively. It sure feels like dropping Marner onto the team would vault Utah above a couple rivals in the Pacific Division.
Why it’s not: Utah remains a new NHL market, its arena still undergoing renovations, and despite the positive energy around the club, signing there on what would presumably be a seven-year deal requires a certain leap of faith at this early juncture. While the Mammoth are headed in the right direction, they’re one of several teams on this list that would test Marner’s patience before realistically chasing a championship.
8. San Jose Sharks
Why it’s a fit: Macklin Celebrini. Will Smith. Sam Dickinson. William Eklund. Yaroslav Askarov. Another top-two prospect in June, whether it’s Matthew Schaefer or Misa. The Sharks are really starting to build something under GM Mike Grier. They graduated from joke to at least being an exciting team to watch for much of 2024-25. They have enough blue-chip talent that they could improve quicker than expected. Despite being the NHL’s worst team two years running, they arguably look better positioned for the future than Chicago, for example. The Sharks also have a history of keeping their best players for a long time, because they’re such an appealing market to play in, blending good weather and anonymity with a fan base that still gets plenty fired up when the team is competitive. It’s also worth noting that former Marner teammate and mentor Patrick Marleau now works for the Sharks as a hockey operations advisor and player development coach; he could help in the recruitment process. The Sharks have cap space for days, too. Throwing $14 million at Marner wouldn’t be a problem.
Why it’s not: Setting aside if Marner is willing to wait years to play for a contender again: are we sure the Sharks are ready to start spending? They’ve been so bad that Grier could lay low one more year and circle 2026 as a better window to chase a top UFA – such as Eichel, for instance.
9. Toronto Maple Leafs
Why it’s a fit: Hey, I know Marner is virtually out the door, but we can’t completely rule out a last-minute olive branch from the Leafs or change of heart from Marner. This is his home and where his family resides, after all. We know for a fact coach Craig Berube wants him back, as does Marner’s great friend Matthews. Marner wouldn’t be the first UFA to suddenly pivot and stay when he was seemingly leaving, like Steven Stamkos re-signing with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2016 two days before making it to market.
Why it isn’t: The reasons are outlined at the top of this article. The Leafs can’t keep doing the same thing every year, and Marner may need a fresh start emotionally.
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