NHL power rankings: Colorado Avalanche kick off 2023-24 season back on top

Credit: © Gary A. Vasquez

The NHL is back! Preseason is fun and all, but nothing quite beats watching Auston Matthews score back-to-back hat tricks, the Arizona Coyotes upset the New Jersey Devils and the Edmonton Oilers be the Edmonton Oilers in meaningful hockey games. With that, the Daily Faceoff power rankings are back, and this time in all their traditional #1-to-#32-ranking goodness. In case you missed it in the preseason power rankings, this season we’re bringing Mike Gould into the fold to add a different dynamic to the rankings.

I (Scott Maxwell) will be continuing on with my system from last year’s rankings, in which I aggregated six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases. Once we get deep enough into the season, I’ll also include the rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them, but that wasn’t needed this week.

Mike, on the other hand, will be going off of his own intellect and pure vibes. In a weird twist, that’s actually allowed his list to be more grounded in reality this week, as my stats-based approach has fallen by the wayside of insanely small sample sizes. But hey, it’s the first week of the season – embrace the chaos!

1. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 2–0–0, +4
Mike’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 1st

Mike: I’m not sure about putting the Avs ahead of the Golden Knights, who are (a) the defending Stanley Cup champs and (b) also undefeated so far this season. The Avs aren’t pushovers, but they just barely got past MacKenzie Blackwood and the San Jose Sharks on Saturday. Sure, they put approximately 1,000 shots on goal in that game, but still.

Scott: Yeah, this early on it’s the slimmest margins that can put one team over the other, and right now the Avs have looked better on offense and defense, which is a lot more than I could say about them all last season.

2. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 3–0–0, +9
Mike’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Scott: The Golden Knights have been about as consistent as can be, as they’ve been the only team to go 3-0 and have won each game by a score of 4-1. The only place they haven’t been consistent in is their power play which has struggled to generate chances, so they get dinged a few spots on my ranking right now.

3. Boston Bruins

Record: 2–0–0, +3
Mike’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Mike: The Bruins wound up being ranked higher in the aggregate than where either of us had them individually, which says a lot about the disparity between Scott’s rankings and my own. We both put them pretty high, though. The defense remains terrific and David Pastrnak has pretty much picked up right where he left off last year despite no longer having Patrice Bergeron as his center. Good stuff all around.

4. Dallas Stars

Record: 1–0–0, +1
Mike’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Scott: There’s not much to talk about with the Stars only one game into the season. They played like one would expect the Stars to play like in one game, and you would hope that they continue to play like that. I’m sure getting Roope Hintz back into the lineup soon will make them even better.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 2–1–0, +5
Mike’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 2nd

Mike: This is the first instance of Scott’s model wildly overreacting to a small sample of games. I think putting them in 12th makes a decent amount of sense, though. The Penguins quickly shook off an alarming loss to Chicago on opening day to notch convincing wins over Washington and Calgary. Although Erik Karlsson hasn’t wowed us yet this year, Evgeni Malkin has turned back the clock with six points in his first three games.

Scott: The Pens offense has been the biggest difference maker thus far in my model, but my own personal opinion would probably have them closer to your ranking.

6. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 2–0–0, +4
Mike’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 13th

Scott: Who would’ve thought that Mike would be higher on the Leafs than I am right now? I’m sure they’ll rise up my rankings once things settle down, but at the time being, a dodgy defense and an offense that’s mostly been generated on the power play through the first two games have hurt their position on my list up this point. Certainly hasn’t stopped them from winning games, though!

7. New York Rangers

Record: 1–1–0, +2
Mike’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Mike: My vibes-based “model” pretty much agrees with Scott’s formula on the Rangers. They resembled an Eastern Conference Final team in their 5–1 win over the Sabres on Thursday before looking like … not that … in a baffling loss to Columbus two days later. Sure, they doubled the Blue Jackets in shots, but Igor Shesterkin posted an ugly .762 save percentage while stopping just 16 of 21. This is a team that will go as far as Igor can carry them, so he’ll need to be a lot better than that.

8. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 2–1–0, Even
Mike’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 19th

Scott: Another likely Cup contender that I have ranked lower than Mike, the Canes had a couple of sloppy games to start their road trip through California. When two-thirds of your season hasn’t gone well, it’s not going to look good on paper! This will probably change once everything normalizes after a few weeks.

9. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 1–1–0, Even
Mike’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 3rd

Mike: Again, before you go on Twitter and start screaming at the Daily Faceoff overlords to turf Scott for his bizarre takes, just remember that his rankings are all based on an extremely tiny sample (and, besides, the real weird stuff is still to come). The Jets are not the third-best team in the NHL, but they outshot the Flames convincingly on Wednesday before taking it to the Panthers in a 6–4 win on Saturday. Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t looked great early on, but he’s a good bet to turn it around. Still, expect the Jets to tumble down this list a bit once the other teams in the Central Division start to pick it up.

Scott: That’s the start of the regular season for you! The Jets currently lead the league in 5v5 expected goal share, so it was expected that they would look really good after the first week.

10. New York Islanders

Record: 1–0–0, +1
Mike’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Scott: It’s been all of one game for the Islanders, but their 3-2 win over the Sabres was an excellent defensive outing, both at even strength and on the penalty kill. We’ll see if this continues once the Isles play more, but their first game showed shades of the 2020 and 2021 teams.

Mike: Bo Horvat had eight shots on goal in that win over the Sabres. What a way to open a season.

11. Arizona Coyotes

Record: 1–0–0, +1
Mike’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Mike: Muahahaha! Scott sees the vision! Funny enough, I expected I’d be much higher on my Coyotes than my colleague would be, but his model loves how the ‘Yotes dictated the play in their 4–3 shootout win over the Devils on Friday. Logan Cooley looks terrific and the top line of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Barrett Hayton is legitimately one of the best in the entire league. If they can figure out the defense, the Coyotes can absolutely make the playoffs.

Scott: Okay, that’s great Mike, now please let my family go.

12. New Jersey Devils

Record: 1–0–1, Even
Mike’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 20th

Scott: The Devils didn’t fare too well to start the season mostly due to a mixed bag of results. They had a great start to the year by beating the Red Wings in their opener but followed it up with a poor showing against the Coyotes, one the Devils probably wouldn’t have gotten a pity point in if the Coyotes didn’t get into penalty trouble. Jack Hughes looks to be in mid-season form though!

Mike: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Devils took over the top spot on this list within six weeks of this post. They’re unbelievably talented. But they really didn’t look very good at all in that Coyotes game.

13. Ottawa Senators

Record: 2–1–0, +4
Mike’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Mike: I’m starting to see the rationale for calling the Sens a playoff team this year. It was great to see Vladimir Tarasenko find the back of the net for the first time in Ottawa colors on Sunday against the Lightning, and it was even more encouraging when they cruised to a 5–2 victory in that game. The Shane Pinto situation still looms large over this club, but they should be even better when he and Josh Norris re-enter the lineup. Good vibes!

14. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 1–1–0, +1
Mike’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: I was low on the Red Wings going into the season, but they’ve looked good thus far, albeit in two games. Alex DeBrincat has been a difference maker for their offense, and their defense has been mediocre enough for the numbers to look pretty good thus far. We’ll see if that holds up throughout the season.

15. Florida Panthers

Record: 0–2–0, -4
Mike’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 18th

Mike: It feels like a whole lot of people have forgotten that the Panthers only just barely snuck into the playoffs last year. They got hot at the right time, but the Golden Knights dispatched them pretty quickly once Sergei Bobrovsky’s supply of miracle tonic ran dry. Two games into this season, the Panthers are stuck at four total goals and are about to go up against New Jersey and Toronto back-to-back. That defensive group badly misses Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour.

Scott: That’s what happens when you sign four NHL defenseman to replace their minutes, and then don’t play the best one! #JusticeforReilly

16. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 2–0–0, +8
Mike’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 14th

Scott: Mike and I appear to be in the same mindset with the Canucks – cautiously optimistic after back-to-back wins over the Oilers. In terms of the scoring chances, the Oilers smacked them around in both games, so the Canucks still have a lot to prove before we call them playoff contenders this season.

17. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 0–2–0, -8
Mike’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Mike: The Oilers looked downright awful in their 8–1 loss to Vancouver on Wednesday. They were slightly better on Saturday but lost again to the very same Canucks team. As good as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are, the Oilers’ defensive group has looked highly suspect in the early goings and their goaltenders have been even worse. I think Scott’s formula is being a bit hard on the Oilers, but then again, they don’t need any pity points after getting to make 11 top-10 picks between 2007 and 2019. How has this team consistently done so little with so much premier talent?

Scott: The Oilers underlying numbers are actually really good to start the season, but their penalty kill was rough in those two games and they currently have the worst 5v5 goal differential, so that hurts them a lot right now.

18. St. Louis Blues

Record: 1–0–1, Even
Mike’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 15th

Scott: The Blues’ start to the season so far has been the polar opposite of their 2021-22 season when they last made the playoffs – instead of elite offense and poor defense, their defense has looked solid and their offense hasn’t quite figured it out yet. They also looked good last season to start the year and then went into a nosedive afterwards, so we’ll give them a few more weeks to see if this holds.

19. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 1–2–0, -3
Mike’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 30th

Mike: Sure, Tampa’s only win so far has been against the Predators, who I still think are among the very worst teams in the entire league right now. They were heavily outshot by both the Red Wings and Senators in their subsequent losses last week. Steven Stamkos is injured, too. But … 19th? Even for me, that’s a bridge too far.

Scott: This is Tampa, they’ll definitely bounce back, but the fourth-worst 5v5 expected goal share is not a good start. On top of the struggles to start, dropping two games to division rivals in a wide open Atlantic Division doesn’t help their case.

20. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 1–0–1, Even
Mike’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 16th

Scott: The Habs looked… alright in their first week. They held their own against an elite Leafs team and looked to win before facing the wrath of Auston Matthews, and then took care of business against Connor Bedard and a still not-good Blackhawks team. Nothing to take note of yet, but that’s not a bad start for Montreal either.

Mike: I am here for the Sean Monahan renaissance. He rocks. That is all.

21. Minnesota Wild

Record: 1–1–0, -1
Mike’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 27th

Mike: Filip Gustavsson was incredible in Minnesota’s 2–0 win over the Panthers on Thursday. Two days later, he got shelled for seven goals on 33 shots as the Maple Leafs pulled out a 7–4 win on home ice. It was terrific to see Marco Rossi finally get his first NHL goal in that second game. If he can blossom into a strong secondary scorer, this Wild team could look a lot more dangerous in the later goings of this season.

22. Nashville Predators

Record: 1–2–0, Even
Mike’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Scott: Mike may still be bearish on the Preds, but so far this season they’ve won the expected goals battle in every game. That only resulted in one win, and who knows if that will continue, but those results are the reason they got a 12th ranking from me early on.

Mike: I just don’t see this Predators team being able to score. Like, at all. But they’ve been better than I expected in the early goings.

23. Calgary Flames

Record: 1–1–0, -1
Mike’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 31st

Mike: Upstart rookie Matt Coronato is just about the only reason to be excited about watching these Flames right now. Jonathan Huberdeau’s game is still a work in progress and Nazem Kadri has been completely invisible. Jacob Markstrom put together five excellent periods to start the year before giving up four goals in 12 shots against Pittsburgh on Saturday. Next up, they’ll take on former Flames prospect Matthew Phillips and the Washington Capitals — a team they definitely should beat — in D.C. on Monday.

24. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 0–1–1, -4
Mike’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 25th

Scott: Two games into the Pierre-Luc Dubois era in Los Angeles and it certainly hasn’t been ideal. In their defense, the Avs and Canes are about as tough as it gets for your first two opponents, but you would hope that bolstering your center depth would mean you can hold your own a bit more against the best of the best.

25. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 1–1–0, -1
Mike’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 21st

Mike: It was so great to see Sean Couturier return to game action with the Flyers this past week, and he really looked like his old self in the team’s season-opening 4–2 win over Columbus on Thursday. “Coots” and Cam Atkinson are both back in the lineup in Philly after missing all of the 2022–23 season due to injury. Although this Flyers team is still outmatched, they’re worth watching as long as youngsters like Cam York, Bobby Brink, Emil Andrae, and Tyson Foerster keep playing.

26. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 1–1–0, Even
Mike’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 17th

Scott: The Golden Knights rightfully gave the Ducks a difficult time to start the season, but they surprised a lot of the hockey world on Sunday by beating the Canes – and rightfully so with 58% of the expected goals. That makes them look slightly better in my model, but Mike clearly isn’t sold yet.

27. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 1–1–0, Even
Mike’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 23rd

Mike: Maybe Boone Jenner is the one who has finally figured out Igor Shesterkin. But unless the rest of the NHL suddenly starts turning the All-Star Rangers goalie into Swiss cheese, we’ll have to boil down the Blue Jackets’ surprising 5–3 win on Saturday to plain-old fair fortune. By the way, I have a feeling David Jiricek isn’t going back down to the AHL.

28. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 1–2–0, -1
Mike’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 22nd

Scott: The Connor Bedard Experience has been exactly what many expected in Chicago. The offense has been strong, the defense has been anything but that, and the Blackhawks go from a competent NHL team with Bedard on the ice to a lottery contender without him. The fact that Bedard’s 5v5 relative expected goal share is already +14.62% should say it all.

Mike: Bedard has been incredibly solid in his first week in the NHL. Unfortunately, the team around him has been designed for the purpose of losing hockey games.

29. Seattle Kraken

Record: 0–2–1, -7
Mike’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 28th

Mike: The Kraken were perhaps the most obvious candidate for regression this year after going on a ridiculous shooting percentage bender pretty much all of last season. This team severely lacks star power. They’ve scored two goals in three games and nobody on the roster has more than one point. At least Philipp Grubauer has been alright in the early goings, but yeesh.

30. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 0–2–0, -5
Mike’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 29th

Scott: The Buffalo Sabres hype train has not just stalled, but appears to have derailed so far this season. The Rangers destroyed the Sabres 5-1 in their season opener, and then to follow that up, the Islanders stifled them 3-2 to finish the week. It’s far from over, but this could turn into a slippery slope if the Sabres don’t bounce back sometime soon.

31. San Jose Sharks

Record: 0–1–1, -4
Mike’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 26th

Mike: These Sharks are not going to score many goals at all this year. MacKenzie Blackwood was incredible in their 2–1 shootout loss to the Avalanche on Saturday, but recent history suggests he’s more likely to revert to below-average status once he gets more games under his belt — especially behind that defense. We wish Filip Zadina and Anthony Duclair all the best.

32. Washington Capitals

Record: 0–1–0, -4
Mike’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 32nd

Scott: The Caps only played one game, got shut out, and the Pens got more than double the expected goals than Washington in that game. It’s not something to take super seriously in terms of the grand scheme of the season (yet), but those are all key ingredients to finding yourself in last place in the rankings.

Mike: I think the Caps are better than this, but not by much. I suspect Alex Ovechkin’s quest for 895 goals will be the only reason to watch this team for the foreseeable future.

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