Snipers like Jake Guentzel are rarely available at Trade Deadline – and contenders should pounce

Credit: Jake Guentzel (© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

We’re now less than two weeks away from the NHL’s March 8 trade deadline, but don’t worry, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day until Deadline Day.

Today we continue our player profile series with Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel, who is the No. 3 ranked player on our Trade Targets board. Out since Valentine’s Day with an injury, Guentzel is back skating and trending toward a return just after the deadline.

2024 Trade Deadline Countdown: 11 Days

JAKE GUENTZEL
Left Wing, Pittsburgh Penguins
Shoots: Left
Age: 29
Height: 5-foot-11 | Weight: 180 lbs
Cap Hit: $6 million
Term: Pending UFA
2023-24 Stats: 50 GP, 22 G, 30 A, 52 Pts, 20:52 TOI
Career Stats: 8th season (all Pittsburgh), 503 GP, 219 G, 247 A, 466 Pts
Best Year: 2021-22, 76 GP, 40 G, 44 A, 84 Pts, plus-13, 20:06 TOI
Playoffs: 6 appearances, 1 Stanley Cup (2017), 5 rounds won, 58 GP, 34 G, 24 A, 58 Pts

Archetype and Ideal Role

Shooter, Top Line Winger

For our Archetype series, we classified players into nine different categories and Guentzel ranked as the sixth-best pure shooter in the entire league. With all due respect to those who came before him in the Steel City, including Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis, Guentzel is the best linemate and running mate of Sidney Crosby’s career. Guentzel is an elite complementary player who can immediately impact a Stanley Cup contending team’s first line and first unit power play.

Scouting Report

If it was easy to play with Sidney Crosby, anyone would have success with No. 87, but this eight-year run is a testament to Guentzel’s intelligence and adaptability. One of the amazing parts of Guentzel’s game is his ability to know exactly what he wants to do with the puck before it arrives on his stick. He is seemingly never caught by surprise, even when the puck magically arrives from Crosby, one of the best playmakers the sport has ever seen.

With that, the puck is on and off Guentzel’s stick in a flash. He takes a lot of one-timers and if he isn’t shooting, he is often making a one-touch play which keeps the pace of the game moving in Pittsburgh’s favor. He is also versatile. He can play on both sides of the ice, plus just about any power play position – on the flank, on the goal line or in the bumper spot.

And yes, he shoots a lot. Only five players in the NHL have a higher expected goals-for per 60 minutes than Guentzel: David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman and John Tavares, according to data from Stathletes. He is also fifth in scoring chances per 60 minutes, sixth in shots from the slot per 60 minutes, ninth in shots from the inner slot and ninth in deflections per 60 minutes.

It isn’t that Guentzel’s shot speed will blow you away – his success stems from shot location. According the NHL EDGE puck and player tracking, Guentzel is in the 99th percentile in shots on goal from the high-danger area, and that translates to 95th percentile for goals scored from that area. He doesn’t have a huge frame, but his tremendous offensive instincts and reads get him to the right place and arriving at the right time.

Guentzel isn’t only quick of mind, he is also quick with his feet. He ranks in the 94th percentile in number of speed bursts between 20-22 mph and 93rd percentile in quantity between 18-20 mph. That speed is a lethal combination with his mind – because it’s one thing to be able to know where to be, it’s another thing to be able to get there, and yet another to execute.

Seemingly all Guentzel has done is execute at the NHL level. He is a two-time 40-goal scorer and four of the last five seasons he has been north of a point-per-game in production. Since entering the league in 2016-17, Guentzel is 19th in the league with 219 goals. For perspective, that is 11 back of sniper Kyle Connor, 24 back of Crosby and 26 behind Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.

If all of that wasn’t enough, Guentzel has also earned the reputation of a clutch playoff performer and scorer. In his first playoff run in 2017, he led the entire postseason in scoring with 13 goals as a rookie, helping the Penguins to a second straight Stanley Cup. He has exactly 58 points in 58 career postseason games, which makes him 12th in playoff points-per-game over that span. Hard to be better than that.

Buyer Beware

The list of concerns about Guentzel isn’t long and isn’t noteworthy. Guentzel’s defensive metrics aren’t strong, but we wouldn’t classify him as a poor defensive player. Similarly, his overall possession numbers aren’t through the roof, but that probably has more to do with the give-and-go style he plays, and the fact that in order to be successful, Guentzel often gets lost in space.

Similarly, Guentzel is currently injured and (unrelated) does have a concussion history, and he is not the most physical player. He ranks 223rd in hits among forwards with 40 games played this year, but we’re pretty sure no team is acquiring him for his physicality.

Potential Suitors

Arizona Coyotes: Sound crazy? Guentzel’s father, Mike, is a pro scout for Arizona. They’ve got tons of draft capital and prospects. It’s not a traditional trade deadline move for a likely non-playoff team, but players like Guentzel rarely become available – this might be their only chance to get him. The Yotes can’t be completely ruled out.
Carolina Hurricanes: The one thing the Canes have been missing on their recent playoff runs? A stone cold playoff finisher. That would be Guentzel. And with their roster in-flux, they could afford to re-sign him.
Colorado Avalanche: The line of thinking has been that the Avs are in the market for a second line center, but with the availability of Valeri Nichushkin and Gabriel Landeskog unclear, Colorado really needs more difference makers.
Detroit Red Wings: The Wings appear to be playoff bound and GM Steve Yzerman could be motivated to make a splash. If Detroit could afford to sign Guentzel to an extension, doesn’t that make a lot of sense?
Edmonton Oilers: Guentzel checks a lot of boxes – team potentially looking for top-six forward help, has assets and is highly motivated.
Florida Panthers: The Cats are in Stanley Cup contender mode. Among the teams in the mix, though, the Panthers have the least assets to spend. They don’t have a first-round pick until 2026.
New York Rangers: Like Colorado, the thinking has been the Rangers are targeting a center, but Blake Wheeler is out now – and Chris Drury added both Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko on the wing last spring.
Vancouver Canucks: If it’s a Pittsburgh Penguin, you can almost guarantee the Canucks are keeping tabs on him. They’ve made a big splash up front already with Elias Lindholm. Would Guentzel put them over the top?
Vegas Golden Knights: With Mark Stone’s lacerated spleen injury potentially opening the door for $9.5 million in use-or-lose salary cap space for the Golden Knights, you can bet the Golden Knights will be aggressive. They were in the market for a winger before Stone went down.

Comparable Trade Returns

Feb. 22, 2019
To Columbus: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
To Ottawa: 2019 1st Rd Pick, Cond. 2020 1st Rd Pick, Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson

Jan. 30, 2023
To NY Islanders: Bo Horvat (25% retained)
To Vancouver: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 17 overall), Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty

When you boil it down, one of the really odd facets of the NHL trade market is that often times, less impactful rental players end up going for somewhat similar prices as point-per-game difference makers. For instance, Sean Monahan has already netted the Montréal Canadiens a late first-round pick, but he doesn’t hold a candle to Guentzel based on overall impact on the game – and yet that same late first-round pick will likely be the engine that a Guentzel trade runs off.

Case in point: look at both of these recent comparables for a rental forward who was putting up a point-per-game or better in their contract year at the time of the trade. Truthfully, the Horvat trade was a mostly underwhelming return for Vancouver – regardless of whatever they did with that pick after the fact, trading it for Filip Hronek. You have to remove that part of it and look at the return in a vacuum. The Canucks got what is currently on track to be 10 draft slots higher than what Montreal received for Monahan, plus took on Beauvillier’s contract, retained a quarter on Horvat, and took a flier on Raty. In reality, the Horvat deal should be the bare minimum for Guentzel.

Then look at the Duchene deal from 2019. The Sens ultimately received just one first-round pick, since the second one was conditional solely on Duchene re-signing with Columbus. Abramov and Davidsson didn’t end up amounting to anything, playing a grand total of 11 NHL games between them.

All of which begs the question for Pittsburgh, given the contending teams involved, what exactly are the Penguins looking for in return? Will the Pens place more value on what are likely to be late first-round picks, or will they attempt to target established prospects? Is there a way to do both? This feels like a classic return package of a first-round pick, plus a Grade A prospect, plus maybe a solid younger NHL roster player.

It’s so insanely rare that a point-per-game player, under 30 years old, with a proven playoff history becomes available. They have rarely moved in the NHL salary cap era at the deadline. The truth is, the return for Guentzel should be exactly what the Penguins need to begin jumpstarting their roster turnover after nearly two decades of unparalleled success, but more often than not, it hasn’t been according to market history.

Summary

Teams should be jumping at the opportunity to add a player of Guentzel’s ilk. He is an elite shooter, a quick thinking and quick moving player who can be the playoff assassin any contender craves.

Daily Faceoff analyst Jon Goyens contributed to this report. Find him on Twitter: @gourmet_hockey

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