Sweden comes as advertised at 4 Nations Face-Off – for better or for worse

When the roster was announced, it was no secret that Sweden’s biggest strength was, on paper, its blueline.

With Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes pulling out of the tournament for Team USA, it made Sweden’s defense arguably the best. In the tournament opener against Canada Wednesday night, it was easily their best asset.

Conversely, it left a lot to be desired from their forwards.

In a thriller that saw Canada win 4-3 in overtime off the back of Sidney Crosby’s three assists, it left Sweden’s club with many questions. In particular, how they’re going to generate offense from here on out. 

It was almost 14 minutes before Sweden recorded a shot on goal; a low ball back end along the ice from a bad angle that goaltender Jordan Binnington easily pushed aside. Canada dominated the first period in just about every way. The Swedes entered the first intermission with just three shots on goal and struggled to find a rhythm offensively as Canada clogged up the neutral zone. 

“Yeah, I mean, less than an ideal start for Team Sweden,” Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson told reporters after the game. “That was a little bit of a nutkicker.”

As the game played out, though, Sweden did start generating more chances and controlling play. Per Natural Stat Trick, they dominated the possession battle by two-thirds and had 75 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. But while the analytics painted a decent tail for Sweden, one thing became apparent: a lot of their offense was generated from the back end and from the perimeter.

Make no mistake, the Swedish defensemen had a good night. Not without their gafs, like the breakdown that led to a 2-on-1 resulting in Canada’s second goal or losing Mark Stone on the third tally. But overall, the defense on the Swedish side came as advertised. 

Karlsson, in particular, had standout moments and was an analytics darling; he recorded one assist to finish the night. Mattias Ekholm and Gustav Forsling were relied on heavily in terms of ice time, while Jonas Brodin recorded the game’s first goal. Victor Hedman was a horse, logging north of 23 minutes at 5-on-5, recording an assist in the process while seemingly being out there for almost the entire overtime stanza. 

For much of the final two periods of regulation, Sweden did have the puck a lot. But even, at times, having the territorial advantage, there was a consistent theme throughout the game: an inability to get to the middle of the ice with regularity. 

Sweden’s offensive scheme was pretty clear: generate point shots and look for cross-ice passes. Their defensemen were used a ton throughout the game to blast shots from the point; the problem is that many failed to get through Canada’s line of defense and missed the net. The first goal for Sweden came from outside the slot area, beating Binnington high off of what looked like could’ve been a deflection.

While Binnington rebounded in overtime, he was not especially impressive in regulation. When the Swedes got shots off in the slot area (or on the doorstep, in the case of the third goal), they found the back of the net. Had Binnington been a bit sharper, would this game have gotten past regulation?

So, if the defense for Sweden was the big reason for the near comeback, what was the main culprit in the anemic offensive game for large stretches? Simple: Sweden’s big dogs up front did not answer the bell. 

Filip Forsberg, William Nylander, and Elias Petterson all combined for goose eggs across the board. That trio cannot be ghosts on the scoreboard for a Swedish group that doesn’t have many star offensive players compared to the other three countries in the tournament. 

I found Petterson, in particular, to be a complete non-factor offensively and forgotten at times. Forsberg was a little less so, but still not nearly effective enough. Nylander showed flashes here and there, but not close to the level that Sweden needs him to be at to keep pace offensively in this tournament. 

Not all was negative amongst Swedish forwards, as Lucas Raymond of the Detroit Red Wings – he left the game momentarily with an injury before ultimately returning – finished as the third star with two assists. Joel Eriksson Ek was mixing it up and finished to tie the game, while Rickard Rakell was noticeably physical, registering three hits on the night while playing a key role on Sweden’s first goal. 

But while depth scoring is nice, the top guns for Sweden need to be better – there’s no way around it. The offense was often generated from the back end, but that can’t be the game plan every night. Eventually the cream is going to rise to the top, and if Sweden’s top dogs don’t find a way to break through, it may be a tough go the rest of the way. 

Filip Gustavsson Shines

Despite allowing four goals on 28 shots, Swedish goaltender Filip Gustavsson was a rock star tonight. While it was unclear who would start for Team Sweden (especially with the injury to Jacob Markstrom) leading up to the tournament, Gustavsson was certainly prepared for this game – especially when the game went past regulation into the 10 minute 3v3 part of the game.

“Hopefully, it was more entertaining for the fans,” Gustavsson said about the extended overtime format. “It’s definitely more skill-based. Some good chances to score some goals.”

He was not to blame on any of Canada’s three goals in regulation (all one-timers) and was finally beaten cleanly by Mitch Marner for the overtime winner – but only after stopping Nathan MacKinnon four times point blank earlier in overtime. Even in a losing effort and with a less-than-stellar save percentage, Gustavsson was a big reason Sweden made it to overtime. 

Gustavsson’s GM with the Minnesota Wild loved what he saw.

“Gus was excellent,” USA GM Bill Guerin exclusively told Daily Faceoff. “He made some big saves at critical times and gave his team a chance to win. It was nice to see.”

Gustavsson quietly had a very strong night, and it will be crucial for Sweden’s success for his game to be maintained at this level — especially if the offense can’t be figured out. 

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