The Toronto Maple Leafs have awoken ‘Elimination Game Vasilevskiy.’ Are they doomed?

Credit: Andrei Vasilevskiy (© Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports)

Two shots. Two goaltenders. Two pivotal plays told the story of Game 5 Thursday night with the Toronto Maple Leafs trying to close out their first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

File the first one under: The Goalie Has to Stop This.

Tampa checking winger Mikey Eyssimont, short side, lifted a harmless wrist shot at Ilya Samsonov at 4:23 of the second period with the score tied 1-1. It handcuffed Samsonov, who appeared to be caught attempting to transition into a reverse VH, and beat him between the legs. A familiar, deflated groan rung out among the 19,663 at Scotiabank Arena, the weary fans carrying the baggage of 19 years without a playoff series win.

File the second one under: The Goalie Has No Business Stopping This.

With the Leafs pushing for a tie early in the third period, a defensive breakdown gave Mitch Marner his chance: a juicy breakaway, the entire Tampa zone to himself, the cleanest possible look at Andrei Vasilevskiy. And, as has been the case so many times in his Hall of Fame worthy career, the moment was simply not too big for ‘Vasy.; he actually made the blocker-side stop look pretty easy.

After Nick Paul made it 3-1 Bolts at 11:53, the Leafs did close the gap to 3-2 with 3:33 to go on an Auston Matthews goal in tight, but the Vasilevsky breakaway save on Marner nevertheless changed the complexion of the game. It prevented the possible tying goal; who knows how the game would’ve played out hard Marner scored?

“He comes up big when we need him,” said Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman. “We obviously don’t want to give up those kinds of breakaways. But stuff like that’s going to happen throughout games, and that’s when you need your best players to be your best players. He’s one of our absolute top players and he’s proven that tonight.”

The Bolts never relinquished their lead after Eyssimont’s second-period tally, and the Leafs fell to a stupefying 0-11 since 2004 in games where they can eliminate their opponent from the playoffs.

“Leafs gonna Leaf?” Was it a choke? Not exactly. The Leafs started a bit jello-legged in the first period, but they found momentum and even drew first blood on a Morgan Rielly goal. They pushed back late in the second period after some strong work by Marner on the penalty kill lifted the crowd back into it.

This wasn’t exactly a classic, iconic Blue and White meltdown. The Leafs were outshot and outchanced for a third straight game, but they weren’t lacking for quality looks on Vasilevskiy. The opportunities were there. It was just a night in which they had a chance to close out an opponent to end their series drought and simply…didn’t. And when a series is this tight, a single instant, single bounce, a single save can make the difference in every game.

And that’s where Mr. Vasilevskiy comes in. He wasn’t perfect in Game 5, but he played easily his best game of the series, stopping 28 of 30 shots for a .933 save percentage. He undoubtedly elevated his play.

It hadn’t been his series. The Leafs pumped a playoff-best 4.75 goals per game past No. 88 in the first four contests, in which he posted an .856 SV%. “Andrei Vasilevskiy’s weakness,” seemingly an oxymoron before this season, became the popular discourse in the days after Toronto’s 5-4 comeback win in Game 4 in which they scored three times in the third period. Ex-Lightning assistant coach turned Detroit Red Wings head coach turned Sportsnet analyst Derek Lalonde pointed to Vasilevskiy’s trouble with point shots. A current NHL goaltender told our own Mike McKenna he noticed the Leafs targeting Vasy’s blocker.

“His name’s come up a lot for various reasons over the last couple days,” said Lightning coach Jon Cooper after Game 5, tongue planted in cheek. “And I think he proved he can handle the high shots.”

And all the criticisms might have been true for Games 1-4. But we know who Vasilevskiy is at this point: the Conn Smythe Trophy winner, the two-time Stanley Cup champ, the future Hall of Famer, the world’s best money goaltender. And ‘money goaltender’ doesn’t refer to the guy who carries you at the beginning of a playoff series. The moniker belongs to the stopper whose nerves freeze like winter pipes when the stakes are highest.

“That’s what Vasy does,” Cooper said. “It’s a one-goal game, and you need the save, and he gives you the save.”

In last year’s series, he posted an .880 save percentage in Games 1 through 5, after which the Leafs held a 3-2 series lead. In Games 6 and 7, with the Bolts facing elimination, he stopped 60 of 64 shots for a .938 save percentage. Unscrew his helmet like the battery pack on a kid’s toy and you’ll find a tiny switch marked ‘ELIMINATION GAME.’ Since the start of the 2019-20 playoffs, he is now 5-1 with a .944 save percentage during games in which the Lightning face elimination from the Stanley Cup playoffs.

In six of their seven postseasons in the Matthews/Marner era, the Leafs have gone up against a goaltender with a Vezina Trophy to his name: Braden Holtby (2017), Tuukka Rask (2018, 2019), Carey Price (2021) and Vasilevskiy (2022, 2023). Whether it’s been Frederik Andersen or Jack Campbell, they have been outmatched in net in each series during their streak of consecutive opening-round playoff exits. As for Samsonov? He has alternated shaky and sturdy moments, surrendering weak ones like Eyssimont’s goal Thursday but also rallying from mistakes and making saves at key moments, as he did during the Leafs’ overtime wins in Game 3 and 4. The overall body of work has been adequate.

But when Vasilevskiy triggers his Elimination Game Mode, it will take more than “adequate” in the other net to win. Ask Campbell about that. Either Samsonov will have to play the best hockey of his life in Game 6 and possibly Game 7, or the Leafs must find a way to improve their offensive zone time and put far more pressure – and pucks – on Vasilevskiy. As Rielly said after Game 5, the Leafs knew Tampa wasn’t going to roll over and give them the series. Persevering is about learning how to take something when you want it badly enough.

But it’s 0 for 11 on attempts to take it now. Two more tries. Can the Leafs go 3-0 in Tampa Bay for the series and close it out on Saturday? If not, they’ll force yet another white-knuckle Game 7 Monday. And if Elimination Game Vasilevsky is scary enough, don’t get us started on Game 7 Vasilevskiy. He’s simply not a guy any team wants to face if they can help it.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have awoken ‘Elimination Game Vasilevskiy.’ Are they doomed?

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