Top eight statistical storylines to watch on the NHL’s stretch drive

Washington Capitals left winger Alex Ovechkin

Credit: Mar 9, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) waves towards the stands while leaving the ice after the Capitals' game against the Seattle Kraken at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The NHL trade deadline lived up to the hype last week. The league’s annual blitz delivered an exciting flurry of high-profile swaps, signings and speculation.

And with the final day of dealing now in the books, it means we’re on the home stretch of the regular season. Over the weekend, the league’s calendar passed 1,000 games on its final destination to 1,312 scheduled games. While the NHL’s final five weeks will determine the post-season bracket, it’s also time to put the spotlight on its statistical record.

All-time records. League leaders. Milestones. While the season takes six months to marinate, it’s the final dish that ultimately gets served to history, producing late-season theater among its superstar talent.

We’re counting down the NHL’s top 8 individual statistical stories to watch on the stretch drive.

#8. Will every single-season empty net record fall?

It’s been The Year of the Empty Netter. While the rate has dropped slightly over the course of the season to 0.40 empty net goals per game, we’ll comfortably see the most in history. The team record and all the individual single-season records are near certainties to fall in the process.

NHL Single-Season Empty Net Records

Record	Previous Best	Season	Total	2024-25 Leaders	Total
Goals	Pavel Bure Alex Ovechkin	1999-00 2021-22	9	Alex Ovechkin Mikko Rantanen	8
Assists	Blake Wheeler	2018-19	9	Nathan MacKinnon	9
Points	Nikita Kucherov	2023-24	14	Mikko Rantanen Nathan MacKinnon	14 13
Team Goals	Dallas Stars Winnipeg Jets	2015-16 2023-24	24	Colorado Avalanche	24

MacKinnon and Rantanen have already tied the assist and point records, respectively. Colorado is one empty netter from the solo team record. And the next ‘ENG’ by Ovechkin or Rantanen will tie for most ever. Like last season with Kucherov’s record-setting 14 points, the scoring title may be decided by results sans goalie. MacKinnon’s five-point Art Ross lead on Leon Draisaitl stems from a 13-4 edge in empty net points.

#7. Will Cale Makar be the first defenseman in 16 years to score 30 goals?

Name the last defenseman to score 30 goals in a season… Erik Karlsson? Brent Burns? Shea Weber? Nicklas Lidstrom? Nope. If you guessed Mike Green, you’re either a diehard Capitals fan or you are Mike Green and are reading this article. Not only did Green’s jaw-dropping total occur in a lower scoring climate than today, he only played 68 games — a stunning 37-goal pace.

With a strong finish, Cale Makar could join Green as the only 30-goal defenders in 32 years.

Most Goals by a Defenseman, Salary Cap Era

Player	Season	Games	Goals	Current Pace
1. Mike Green	2008-09	68	31
2. Brent Burns	2016-17	82	29
3. Cale Makar	2021-22	77	28
4. Brent Burns	2015-16	82	27
7. Cale Makar	2024-25	66	24	30 G in 82 GP

#6. Which of Hutson, Celebrini or Michkov will win the rookie scoring race?

Early in the season, each of these players competing for most rookie points seemed improbable. Lane Hutson was a paper-thin defenseman on a team mired in a 2-8-2 streak in November. Macklin Celebrini missed 12 games to injury after his opening night debut. Matvei Michkov was scratched twice in November and paying rent in John Tortorella’s doghouse. Four months later, each rookie has persevered — and thrived.

Most Points by a Rookie, 2024-25

Player	Current Age	Games	Points	Current Pace
1. Lane Hutson	21 years, 1 month	64	49	63 PTS in 82 GP
2. Macklin Celebrini	18 years, 9 months	54	48	62 PTS in 70 GP
3. Matvei Michkov	20 years, 3 months	64	47	59 PTS in 80 GP

#5. Will Connor Hellebuyck capture the goaltending Triple Crown?

The Triple Crown for hockey goalies is not an official NHL achievement. Leading in wins, save percentage, and goals against average is naturally tied to team performance. We know that wins and GAA have faded as valuable stats and that raw save percentage lacks the context of shot quality. But the feat is both ultra rare and an indication of a successful season both individually and as a team. In the last 33 years, only Linus Ullmark (2022-23) and Carey Price (2014-15) have managed the trifecta.

Hellebuyck is taking it a step further. The Jets‘ stopper also leads the league in shutouts, goals saved above average (GSAA per Hockey-Reference), and goals saved above expected (GSAx per MoneyPuck).

Stat	Rank	Value	Closest Goalie	Value
Wins	1st	38	Two tied	30
Save %	1st	.927	Anthony Stolarz	.921
GAA	1st	1.99	Two tied	2.29
Shutouts	1st	6	Nine tied	4
GSAA	1st	34.6	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25.6
GSAx	1st	35.8	Logan Thompson	27.8

#4. Will anyone but Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals?

To say Draisaitl is running away with the Rocket Richard Trophy would be an understatement. His current 10-goal lead on the field hasn’t been topped since Ovechkin’s 65 goals were 13 better than runner-up Ilya Kovalchuk in 2007-08. It’s been seven years since the NHL had only one 50-goal man over a full schedule. But unless someone else has an electric finish to the year, Leon will stand alone in the 50-goal club.

Most Goals, 2024-25

Player	Games	Goals	Current Pace
1. Leon Draisaitl	64	46	59 G in 82 GP
2. William Nylander	64	36	46 G in 82 GP
3. Mark Scheifiele	66	35	43 G in 82 GP
T4. Alex Ovechkin	49	33	44 G in 66 GP
T4. Tage Thompson	57	33	44 G in 76 GP
T4. Kyle Connor	66	33	41 G in 82 GP
T4. David Pastrnak	66	33	41 G in 82 GP

#3. Will Sidney Crosby get his record-setting 20th point-per-game season?

In a different year — where his longtime rival wasn’t chasing one of hockey’s most famous records — Crosby’s pursuit of a different Wayne Gretzky mark might have resonated more. But with Ovechkin’s binge sniping occupying so much air, Crosby’s consistent excellence understandably takes a back seat.

Assuming he plays the balance of the schedule, Crosby will play 80 games, making 80 points the magic number for the record. Presently, he has 70 points in 65 games. 10 points over his final 15 games does the trick. That would give Crosby an incomprehensible 20 consecutive point-per-game seasons.

Most Point-Per-Game Seasons, NHL Career

Player	Streak Span	Seasons	Point-per-Game Seasons
T1. Sidney Crosby	2005-2024	19	19
T1. Wayne Gretzky	1979-1998	20	19
3. Gordie Howe	1950-1969	26	17

#2. Who will win the Art Ross Trophy?

While a good rule in any points derby is not to count out Connor McDavid, from a practical perspective this is a three-horse race. MacKinnon’s 11 points in a recent seven-day stretch provided a small cushion toward his potential first career Ross. But past winners Draisaitl (2019-20) and Kucherov (2018-19, 2023-24) are no strangers to big point nights, weeks, or months.

Most Points, 2024-25

Player	Games	Points	Current Pace
1. Nathan MacKinnon	66	102	127 PTS in 82 GP
2. Leon Draisaitl	64	97	124 PTS in 82 GP
3. Nikita Kucherov	61	92	119 PTS in 79 GP
4. Connor McDavid	58	82	107 PTS in 76 GP
T5. Kyle Connor	66	81	101 PTS in 82 GP
T5. David Pastrnak	66	81	101 PTS in 82 GP
7. Mitch Marner	63	80	103 PTS in 81 GP
8. Jack Eichel	63	78	100 PTS in 81 GP

You’ll also notice eight players are on pace for 100 points, with the bottom four near the cutoff. Clayton Keller (94-point pace), Rantanen (94), and Makar (93) also have outside chances. That leaves us anywhere between four and 11 instances of 100+ points. A year ago, nine players reached the milestone.

#1. Will Alex Ovechkin break the all-time goals record this season?

The answer seems like a breezy yes. But it’s fascinating to consider how unlikely this was just over a year ago. On January 24, 2024, Ovechkin was a 38-year-old that had scored 8 goals in 43 games — a shocking 15-goal pace. It was nearly impossible to picture him ever firing off the requisite 65 goals, let alone in the next 15 months. And certainly not after a November injury cost him 16 games.

Has scoring empty net goals this year at an unprecedented rate helped? Sure. But it’s a total non-story. Ovechkin has relentlessly scored goals for 20 seasons. That’s simply not true of any other player. He needs 9 goals in 17 games to pass Gretzky. With Washington all but assured top seed in the East, it’s now nearly impossible not to picture him firing Goal #895 this season. And if we want to stretch our imaginations… 14 goals gets him to 900… and 17-in-17 sets the record for most 50-goal seasons (10). You never know.

🚨 Friendly reminder to enjoy two of the greatest players in #NHL history while you can. With proper context relative to era:

✔️ Ovechkin: most goals (985) by 60…
✔️ Crosby: goals/8th, assists/6th, points/4th#ALLCAPS #LetsGoPens pic.twitter.com/BA6BmKWFul

— Paul Pidutti (@AdjustedHockey) March 4, 2025

Visit adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference, NHL.com. All stats through March 11, 2025.