Tyler Toffoli is the best value bet of this year’s secondary UFA forward options

Mike Gould
Mike Gould
Tyler Toffoli is the best value bet of this year’s secondary UFA forward options
Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

This year’s class of unrestricted free agents is likely to feature an unusually high quantity of talented wingers.

Barring any last-minute signings, Jake Guentzel and Sam Reinhart are the two top players projected to hit the market on July 1. Both are wingers. So, too, are Jonathan Marchessault, Teuvo Teravainen, Patrick Kane, Jeff Skinner, and Vladimir Tarasenko.

Even the likes of Steven Stamkos and Elias Lindholm have spent significant time on the wing in recent seasons. Beyond them are quality mid-tier options like Jake DeBrusk, Tyler Bertuzzi, Jonathan Drouin, and Anthony Duclair.

No, there aren’t too many quality centers headed for unrestricted free agency this summer. This year’s crop of goaltenders is even less impressive: Laurent Brossoit is the headliner by default. But on the wings, there’s talent to spare.

Because of this, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Tyler Toffoli sign a surprisingly reasonable deal on Canada Day. Not only is he likely to be overshadowed by the other wingers available, but he’s also been consistently undervalued in recent seasons, dating back to when he was last a UFA.

Toffoli, who just turned 32 in April, is coming off a year in which he scored 33 goals in 79 games split between the New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets. Before that, Toffoli led the 2022-23 Calgary Flames in scoring over a full slate of 82 games, setting career highs in goals (34) and points (73).

He’s never been the strongest skater or the most imposing physical presence — far from it — but Toffoli has always displayed high-end hockey sense and the ability to shoot the puck like few others in the league. He surpassed the 250-goal and 500-point marks for his career while with the Devils in the 2023-24 season.

Over his most recent four seasons, Toffoli amassed 115 goals and 221 points in 287 games. He did all this on the same contract, a four-year, $4.5 million AAV deal he signed with the Montreal Canadiens in the 2020 free agency period. It seemed like a shockingly reasonable deal at the time, particularly compared to the seven-year, $5.5 million AAV deal Josh Anderson had signed with Montreal the week before — and it turned out to be a steal.

After spending the first seven-and-a-half years of his NHL career playing for one team, Toffoli ended up being traded three times over the duration of that contract. And yet, despite his newfound journeyman status, Toffoli just kept producing like a star wherever he went. He scored more goals than any other Canadien in 2020-21, than any other Flame in 2022-23, and would’ve led the Devils this past year had he not been traded to Winnipeg.

Only 33 players in the entire National Hockey League scored more goals than Toffoli over the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. His 67 goals over those two campaigns put him into a four-way tie with Roope Hintz, Filip Forsberg, and Mark Scheifele. That’s more than Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Dylan Larkin, Mika Zibanejad, and even Guentzel managed over the same time period.

Despite this, Toffoli has recently gone for lighter-than-expected returns on the trade market. The Flames were widely criticized for taking what was then perceived as a lowball offer of Yegor Sharangovich and a 2023 3rd for Toffoli from New Jersey last summer. The Devils ended up selling Toffoli to the Jets for a 2025 2nd and a 2024 3rd, which raised eyebrows when lesser players in Alex Wennberg, Anthony Mantha, and Adam Henrique went for similar (or higher) prices.

Earlier this month, Daily Faceoff‘s own Frank Seravalli published his latest ranking of the NHL’s top 75 pending free agents. Toffoli slots in at No. 16 on that list. AFP Analytics projects that he’ll sign a four-year, $6 million AAV deal as a UFA this summer — a full $41 million less total money than what Guentzel would receive if he signed his own projected seven-year, $9.3 million AAV deal.

We’ll see what happens with Guentzel now that his rights have been traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he has yet to officially agree to terms on a contract with his new team as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday. With less than 24 hours to go until Guentzel can hit the open market, interested teams still aren’t in a position where they can make a full-on pivot toward secondary options like Toffoli.

Even then, with younger players like DeBrusk, Duclair, Bertuzzi, and even non-tendered RFA Alex Nylander heading to the market, the veteran Toffoli might fall to the wayside for teams in search of longer-term solutions. Even so, a player like Toffoli who has never depended on his skating for offense has a better chance of remaining effective as he starts to slow down in his 30s.

We’ll see who ends up landing Toffoli on July 1, but if the term and money are reasonable, there’s a strong chance he ends up being a valuable piece for whichever team gets him. For Western Conference contenders looking for their answer to Zach Hyman, Toffoli might just be the play.

_____

Recently by Mike Gould

POST SPONSORED BY bet365

Keep scrolling for more content!