Which team will try to unlock Jesse Puljujarvi’s potential at the Trade Deadline?

Credit: © Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

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With just over four weeks remaining until the NHL’s March 3 Trade Deadline, we’ve got you covered every day at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to focus on Edmonton Oilers forward Jesse Puljujarvi, who is ranked No. 16 on our most recent Trade Targets board.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 30 days

JESSE PULJUJARVI
Right Wing, Edmonton Oilers
Shoots: Right
Age: 24
Height: 6’4″ | Weight: 201 lbs.
Cap Hit: $3 million
Term: Pending RFA, due $3 million qualifying offer
Trade Clauses: No restrictions
Stats: 49 GP, 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points, 12:35 avg TOI
Career: 6th season (all with Edmonton), 308 GP, 50 goals, 108 points, 13:45 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Forechecker. Third line.

When his confidence is intact, Puljujarvi can provide secondary scoring, be an effective forechecker and add to a team’s overall speed. But the 2016 No. 4 overall pick is a reclamation project, his confidence appears shattered, and it will require time, teaching and patience to rehabilitate him into a useful player again.

Scouting Report

Something clicked at the beginning of last season. Puljujarvi built on a productive pandemic-shortened season in 2020-21 and was shot out of a cannon in 2021-22. He notched 23 points in 28 games, including 10 goals, and was a positive contributor to an Edmonton team that could desperately use a secondary scoring punch. He was playing 17 minutes a night, sometimes with the best players in the world, and Ken Holland’s work to convince him to return to Edmonton after a full season back in Finland seemed to be paying off.

Then the wheels fell off. He closed last year with just four goals in his final 37 games and was invisible in Edmonton’s three-round run in the Stanley Cup playoffs. This year hasn’t been any better. His ice time is down almost four full minutes per game from last year, he has been healthy scratched by Jay Woodcroft, and teammates have grown frustrated with the deficiencies in his game.

There is the potential in there somewhere. Finnish journalist Tommi Seppaälä wrote an intriguing piece comparing Puljujarvi’s numbers to longtime NHLer Olli Jokinen, and Puljujarvi’s production is more favorable in just about every comparison through the same stages of their careers. Jokinen found a believer in Mike Keenan and went on to score 750 points in 1231 games and earned $45 million.

To date, we have no tangible proof that Puljujarvi can become Jokinen. But to his credit: Puljujarvi can fly. His skating is such a positive attribute that with any space, he can be a threat to create opportunities by himself. He also has a decent motor, so combining those two means he effectively pressures the puck as it enters the offensive zone, as well as tracks back hard, and can win possession back for his team when the play is right in front of him.

Buyer Beware

Puljujarvi’s fatal flaw is his absence of hockey intelligence. He lacks awareness. He has always relied on his natural ability to be successful and has had a tough time figuring out how to fit into an NHL lineup and be productive. Even this season, he has played significant minutes with either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl and has just 10 points to show for it. Puljujarvi works. He tracks back hard. But when you have a chance to play with two of the best players in the world, you have to learn how to take advantage of the space and time they create, and he hasn’t be able to do that with any consistency.

Granted, Puljujarvi’s shooting percentage is an abysmal 5.75 percent – the worst of his career – but it’s less about the quantity of shots that aren’t going in and more about the quality of his chances. Playing with players of that ilk, those locations should be prime, but he fails to recognize dangerous space and doesn’t seize on the excellence of his teammates.

Another potential factor weighing Puljujarvi down is the fact he was drafted No. 4 overall. There are expectations that go along with that, and those expectations should have been wiped away once he returned to Finland. But perhaps it’s just time for a change of scenery. Pavel Zacha was the No. 6 pick one year prior to Puljujarvi and the weight of those expectations in New Jersey was too heavy to carry; he has been excellent in Boston playing the best hockey of his career.

Either way, Puljujarvi’s time in Edmonton is coming to a close one way or the other. A split is not only in his best interest, but it would help the Oilers free up the space to fill needs elsewhere.

Potential Fits

A little more than two weeks ago, before Kailer Yamamoto’s injury sent him to LTIR and provided the Oilers additional time, GM Ken Holland sent a note to all 31 other clubs advising them that Puljujarvi is available.

Yamamoto is eligible to return on Feb. 12. Provided that there are no other injuries, the Oilers will need to either trade Puljujarvi or waive other players in order to become cap compliant.

Any Edmonton Trade Partner: Since cap space is tight, Edmonton can send Puljujarvi in the other direction to make the money work as a type of retained salary transaction.
Florida Panthers: Back in his days as an NHL agent, Panthers GM Bill Zito’s partner was Puljujarvi’s current agent, Markus Lehto. Zito spent a chunk of time working in Finland and thus, it stands to reason that Zito might be able to glean some inside knowledge on the player and take a flier.
St. Louis Blues: The Blues were one of the teams that responded to Edmonton’s inquiry about Puljujarvi. The belief is they were willing to roll the dice with Puljujarvi for the rest of the season to see if they could rehab his game a bit, sending back another project player or pending UFA the other way.
Tampa Bay Lightning: This choice might surprise some, but the Lightning are the best in the business in development. They like to take swings and buy distressed assets, such as Philippe Myers from Nashville. If anyone can carve out a role for a fast, hard-working player, it’s the Lightning. The cost would be essentially free and Puljujarvi can be re-signed for relative pennies compared to what he is earning now.
Salary Dump City: The Blackhawks, Sabres, Ducks, Coyotes, Canadiens and Blue Jackets are all among the teams that would readily take on Puljujarvi’s contract for the right asset in return from Edmonton.

Comparable Trade Returns

Oct. 8, 2022
To Chicago: Jason Dickinson, 2024 2nd Round Pick
To Vancouver: Riley Stillman

Oct. 10, 2021
To Florida: Olli Juolevi
To Vancouver: Noah Juulsen, Juho Lammikko

There are two recent examples of the type of deal that may work for Edmonton. Dickinson was a pure salary dump, with the Canucks paying a second-round pick to move off him. But he had almost two full seasons at $2.65 million remaining at the time of the trade. Juolevi was the pick immediately following Puljujarvi in the 2016 Draft and was traded for another first-round pick in Juulsen in a classic change-of-scenery type deal. We don’t get any sense that Edmonton is interested in taking on another project, instead looking for a player who can contribute now.

Summary

The time is nigh. A change of scenery is in the best interest of both the player and the team. The acquiring club will no doubt like the price and the potential upside, particularly if they have the runway and right coaching staff to try to unlock the potential that lies within Puljujarvi to develop into a solid bottom six contributor in today’s NHL.