2023 NHL Trade Deadline Playbook: Edmonton Oilers

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With just over five weeks to go until the NHL’s trade deadline on March 3, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to drill down on the Edmonton Oilers.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 38 days

EDMONTON OILERS
Current Record: 27-18-3, 3rd in Pacific Division
General Manager: Ken Holland (3rd year)
Head Coach: Jay Woodcroft (1st full season)
Captain: Connor McDavid (7th year)

Last year: Lost in the Western Conference Final (4-0) to Colorado Avalanche.

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 3.71 (3rd)
Goals Against: 3.23 (19th)
Power Play: 31% (1st)
Penalty Kill: 74.9% (23rd)

Key Additions
G Jack Campbell – signed 5 years, $25 million
LD Brett Kulak – re-signed 4 years, $11 million
LW Evander Kane – re-signed 4 years, $20.5 million
LW Mattias Janmark – signed 1 year, $1 million
LW Klim Kostin – acquired in Oct. 9 trade from St. Louis

Key Subtractions
LD Duncan Keith – retired on July 12
RW Zack Kassian – traded to Arizona on July 7
LD Dmitri Samorukov – traded to St. Louis on Oct. 9
G Mikko Koskinen – signed with HC Lugano (Swiss NLA)

Trainer’s Table
G Mike Smith – Out for season (LTIR)
LD Oskar Klefbom – Out for season (LTIR)
RW Kailer Yamamoto – Upper-body injury (LTIR, eligible to return on Feb. 12)

The Oilers have had their share of injuries this season, which has contributed to their inconsistent play. They knew they’d be without Smith and Keith, but they miss the competitive edge and presence of both veterans. The big blow to this point was missing Evander Kane for 31 games after his wrist was inadvertently slashed by Pat Maroon on Nov. 8. He returned on Jan. 17, the same day Yamamoto was placed on LTIR, which allowed them to punt a salary cap compliance issue down the road until after the All-Star break. Kane and Yamamoto were supposed to fix Edmonton’s secondary scoring issue needed to push them over the hump from their Western Conference Final appearance last year. Their absence has led to an inconsistent push from Edmonton’s depth forward group – minus Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and anyone lucky enough to play with them like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

It’s often helpful to look back on last year’s deadline activity to get a sense of what we might expect this season. That isn’t necessarily true with the Oilers, because last year, the Oilers took a patient approach. They retained their first-round pick, which they ultimately leveraged in a trade with Arizona to move off of Kassian’s contract and slide back in the round to select Reid Schaefer.

Edmonton’s deadline approach signaled that GM Ken Holland wasn’t sure the Oilers were ready to win. Remember: less than a month before last year’s deadline, the Oilers fired coach Dave Tippett and promoted Jay Woodcroft.

That likely isn’t the case this year, not after a Final Four appearance. The clock is ticking on McDavid and Draisaitl in their absolute primes, and they’ve shown that they can get you the majority of the way to a Stanley Cup Final almost by themselves – even while not fully healthy.

March 21, 2022
To Edmonton: Brett Kulak
To Montréal: William Lagesson, 2022 2nd Round Pick (Lane Hutson), 2024 7th Round Pick, 50% retained

March 21, 2022
To Edmonton: Derick Brassard
To Philadelphia: 2023 4th Round Pick, 50% retained

How did we get here?

Outside of signing Campbell, the Oilers had a mostly quiet summer, with Edmonton brass sending the signal that they believed their core led by primetime players McDavid and Draisaitl were ready to push this team to win the Stanley Cup. Their reward for that belief is a team that can score consistently at even-strength and can put up monster numbers on the power play.

However, it’s no surprise to long-time observers that the scoring is largely a product of their two superstars. The drop-off is stark in the bottom half of the lineup, with recently acquired Klim Kostin leading the way with 18 points, scoring nine goals on an unsustainable 23 percent shooting percentage from the field. Perhaps more notably, they also have a team that cannot defend, or get a save, or both. Some nights, it is difficult to tell which of those is more culpable for their middling defensive standing.

The Oilers are in the middle of the pack in almost every relevant defensive statistical category outside of their penalty kill – which is closer to the bottom. According to Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton has allowed the 13th-most scoring chances, which isn’t terrible, and the 21st-most high-danger scoring chances. So they’re giving up chances, but they are mostly not that dangerous.

Their overall save percentage has increased recently as Campbell has rebounded, clocking in at .894 in all situations, which is 16th in the league. Their high-danger save percentage (as a team) is 20th in the NHL at .810, putting them slightly below average but not alarmingly so.

Where the Oilers really struggle is on the penalty kill. They rank 23rd and that isn’t going to get it done. Middle of the road defensive metrics and a poor penalty kill typically indicate that goaltenders need predictability and time to adjust. At even-strength, that time is there for the goaltender to move and get set because of the lack of space available to attacked. On the kill, that extra time evaporates, leading to more goals against.

What does that mean heading into the deadline? The Oilers need to either address their ability to make a critical save or two when it matters most, which seems unlikely given Campbell’s contract and Stuart Skinner’s extension – or, they need to reduce the number of chances (and quality) they give up.

Deadline Posture: Buyers

Top Objective: Defender

While Campbell has rebounded and Stuart stabilized the goaltending department earlier in the season while Campbell struggled, we know the Oilers probably still need to keep the puck away from their end of the ice and get a significant boost on their penalty kill. The big question the Oilers are asking themselves: Who is the best type of defenseman to aid in those endeavors? Is it a true defender? Or one who moves the puck with ease?

Based on the defensemen currently available, there are a few possibilities: Vladislav Gavrikov, Joel Edmundson, Jake McCabe or Mattias Ekholm.

The rub on Gavrikov is going to be the acquisition price for a solid defensive defenseman who eats shots but isn’t really overly physical. (We provided a full breakdown of Gavrikov’s game and the price on Monday.) McCabe is similar to Gavrikov in that he is a simple, defend-first presence on the back end who also sacrifices for his team, but McCabe comes with the additional wrinkle of two more years, a long injury history, and blocks the path for someone like Philip Broberg. Ekholm is probably the best all-around player of the four mentioned but would likely cost the most in terms of assets, and he’d also be the hardest to fit into Edmonton’s current cap structure. Edmundson offers some of the qualities of Gavrikov and McCabe, would be the least expensive to acquire and also has championship pedigree from St. Louis.

Secondary Objective: Penalty Killer

Looking for help on the ‘kill is not the sexiest deadline acquisition but an absolutely essential piece that the Oilers need. Last year, Colorado added Artturi Lehkonen, an all-purpose, responsible and intelligent player who gave the Avs great minutes in all facets of the game on their way to the Stanley Cup. When added up, he might have been the best trade deadline acquisition – and not just because Colorado won it all. He was a smart, curated addition, and not over-the-top in price compared to some other players who moved.

A similar type addition to Lehkonen, if he ends up becoming available, might be Teddy Blueger. The Pens are going to need to clear up salary cap space if they want to make any moves and Blueger has decent value, definitely not someone you’d have to pay to move. They might not be able to re-sign him, either.

Other potential options are Chicago’s Sam Lafferty and Philadelphia’s Zach MacEwen.

Keep an eye on: The Flip

Right now, we believe the Oilers enter their pro scouting meetings in Vegas not entirely sure as to their approach to the deadline. Yamamoto’s move on LTIR has bought them a few weeks to process and continue to evaluate their team.

If they are not comfortable, for instance, boxing out Broberg as he continues to make strides – well then you have to allow for the possibility that they flip objectives and swing bigger with a center acquisition that can kill a few birds with one stone.

For instance, Jonathan Toews would provide secondary scoring, a penalty killing presence, and an assassin in the faceoff dot. Ryan O’Reilly would do the same, if not more than that as he’s playing at a significantly higher level than Toews. It seems to be a stretch that they could go after Bo Horvat with limited ability to re-sign him.

And just for fun, if all else fails, would swapping Jesse Puljujarvi to Florida in exchange for Anthony Duclair make sense for both sides? They both have the same cap hit. Just sayin.

Trade Chips

What do the Oilers have to give?

Mostly full complement of draft picks
LW Jesse Puljujarvi – likely required in any trade to make money work
RW Kailer Yamamoto
RW Xavier Bourgault – 2021 1st Round Pick (No. 21 overall)
RW Raphael Lavoie – 2019 2nd Round Pick (No. 38 overall)

There’s been no shortage of speculation about how the Oilers might make money work. Puljujarvi stands out as GM Ken Holland already offered him to all 31 other teams two weeks ago before Yamamoto got injured. Yamamoto and Bourgault, both as undersized wingers, are options because they likely don’t need both in the organizational depth chart. Lavoie has work to do as a prospect but has size and intrigue. And the Oilers don’t really have any interest in trading Broberg, Schaefer, or Vincent Desharnais – who has one more year left on his deal at a bargain $762,500.