Which team will overpay to beef up with Vladislav Gavrikov at the Trade Deadline?

Credit: © Gaelen Morse-USA TODAY Sports

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With less than six weeks to go until the NHL’s trade deadline on March 3, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to focus on Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, who was No. 6 on Friday’s latest Trade Targets board.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 39 days

VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV
Left Defense, Columbus Blue Jackets
Shoots: Left
Age: 27
Height: 6’3″ | Weight: 213 lbs.
Cap Hit: $2.8 million AAV
Term: Pending UFA
Trade Clauses: No restrictions
Stats: 45 GP, 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points, 22:17 avg TOI
Career: 4th season (all with Columbus), 249 GP, 15 goals, 73 points, 20:44 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Shutdown Defenseman, Middle/Third Pair

Gavrikov snuck into the Daily Faceoff Archetype Ranking series as the No. 19 Shutdown Defenseman in the NHL, but the truth is he probably ideally slots as a middle pair defenseman on a playoff team and onto a truly Stanley Cup-caliber team as a third pair guy just like David Savard in Tampa Bay.

Scouting Report

The best attribute in Gavrikov’s arsenal is his predictability. There is a reason he leads the Blue Jackets in ice time. You can pencil him in now to regularly play against opponent’s top competition. You know he is going to be on your top penalty killing unit and eat shots. You can sleep comfortably knowing he is going to maintain pressure and try to make life difficult for some of the league’s best players. There is real value in his simplicity; he is easy to play with, especially with forwards committed to playing defensive, and also with puck-moving partners.

Unfortunately, this season, he has split time between Andrew Peeke and Marcus Bjork. Peeke plays a very similar style to Gavrikov, which makes Peeke an in-house replacement for Gavrikov once he is traded, part of the reason they re-signed Peeke to a three-year deal in September at almost Gavrikov’s exact salary cap number. Peeke is a simple, steady defender who can skate but isn’t dynamic and doesn’t move the puck with great efficiency. Bjork is a rookie, now back in the AHL, who has only displayed some of the puck-moving traits necessary to complement Gavrikov’s game.

For Gavrikov, playing with guys who don’t necessarily complement his game, while starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone with the ice tilted against him, has exposed some of his flaws.

Buyer Beware

The caveat here is that Gavrikov, if acquired in the right situation, can absolutely help a team much like Savard did in Tampa when he was used in a third pair role and they hoisted the Stanley Cup. But there are for sure holes in Gavrikov’s game that teams have pointed out.

First among them, Gavrikov has gained a reputation as a physical defender who can make life hard on the opposition. He hasn’t necessarily earned that reputation, mostly because Columbus doesn’t get a lot of attention. Gavrikov sits ninth on his own team in hits (48) and that puts him 297th in the league in hits, tied with Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkos, who do not have the reputation of being physical. We can get into a debate about whether hits tracked by the NHL are an imperfect stat, but why does he get that reputation?

Part of it may be that this season could be an outlier. Playing with an aggressive Peeke, who always plays hard and is up in the play, sometimes forces Gavrikov to play like a free safety and clean up when things go haywire further up the ice. He’d have to similarly cover for Bjork.

The real truth may not be related to Gavrikov’s actual play at all, which is that team executives and broadcasters don’t really know how to define him, and so because he blocks shots and throws the occasional crosscheck in front of the net, he gets labeled as physical and it sticks.

Unfortunately, it’s an incorrect characterization, because Gavrikov is not physical in the traditional sense of creating contact and winning pucks in contested areas. He contains offense more than he stops it, and he tries to force opponents into worse spots to shoot rather than separating forwards from pucks, which would win back possession for his team.

Opponents have keyed in on the fact that Gavrikov isn’t a great puck mover, especially under pressure. He resorts to rimming the puck, in an attempt to bypass the forecheck, rather than to escape pressure and find better outlets. With space, he makes simple plays but nothing flashy. He will occasionally join the rush, but he is more of a decoy than a threat.

Gavrikov’s foot speed has always been on the plus-side of the ledger, but this season has presented some concern. He has taken twice as many penalties as he’s drawn, and while a minus differential is normal for a defender, double the pleasure is not double the fun for the Jackets.

Potential Fits

Vegas Golden Knights: Vegas has a clear need for a left-shot defenseman who can impact the game. Gavrikov could be the under the radar move that eventually gets them the champagne shower they’ve been chasing since their first taste of the Stanley Cup Final in 2018. But depending on the severity of Mark Stone’s back injury and the time he’ll miss, the Golden Knights might have a window to take a bigger swing at the deadline than just Gavrikov.
Edmonton Oilers: One of the most pressing needs for Edmonton is to keep the puck away from their end of the ice and out of their net. The Oilers have one of the league’s worst PK units. Edmonton would be an ideal landing spot for someone like Gavrikov as the penalty-killing, minute-eating, defense-first blueliner with an affordable cap hit.
Toronto Maple Leafs: There’s no doubt the Leafs have been impressive in both generating offense and limiting chances. Adding to their group of prolific scorers would neglect a back-end that has seen Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie and Jake Muzzin all go down with serious injuries. That’s left the bulk of their defending to be done by two kids in Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren, as well as 38-year-old Mark Giordano. They’ve performed better than expected, but not upgrading that position heading into the playoffs would not make much sense given that this is a win or go-home year for the entire front office.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Wants and needs are two different things. The Pens probably want to add a reliable and predictable defender, given the injuries they’ve suffered on the back end, which has amplified their need to lock it down and minimize chances. But in order to do that, they need to generate cap space from somewhere, and that might be a tall task given the contracts they’d like to move are the hardest to move.

Comparable Trade Returns

We know that Toronto and Edmonton are two of the teams that have inquired with Columbus, which has given Gavrikov’s camp the green light to speak with potential suitors to gauge interest in a potential contract extension. What would he fetch in return?

The Ask: Savard to Tampa Bay

April 10, 2021
To Tampa Bay: David Savard, Brian Lashoff
To Columbus: 2021 1st Round Pick (Nolan Allan), 2022 3rd Round Pick (Jordan Dumais), 50% retained
To Detroit: 2021 4th Round Pick (Jakub Demek)

We’ve reported that the Blue Jackets are likely seeking the same as what they got for Savard two years ago – maybe even more since his contract isn’t as expensive. That will be a tall order, especially given that the end return ended up being a 1st, 3rd and 4th when you add in the expense of running his contract through a third-party broker.

Similar: Chiarot to Florida

March 16, 2022
To Florida: Ben Chiarot
To Montréal: Ty Smilanic, 2023 1st Round Pick, 2022 4th Round Pick (Cedrick Guindon), 50% retained

This is essentially the same deal as Savard, but using a third-round pick equivalent in Smilanic, who was a 2020 third-round pick of the Panthers instead of the actual pick itself. This season is yet another reminder to lottery protect picks by whatever means necessary, as the Panthers – after a 122-point season – have dipped in and out of the Draft Lottery standings.

Maintaining Sanity: Kulak to Edmonton

March 21, 2022
To Edmonton: Brett Kulak
To Montréal: William Lagesson, 2022 2nd Round Pick (Lane Hutson), 2024 7th Round Pick, 50% retained

If GMs can hold the line this deadline in a moment of temporary sanity, why is Kulak much different than Gavrikov? He provided sneaky good value for Edmonton, skates as well or better than Gavrikov, and isn’t any more or less physical. Lagesson was thrown in to make the money work. Oddly enough, Hutson might turn out to be the best player out of all of these draft picks in the trade comps.

Summary

Gavrikov is a warm security blanket for any acquiring team. He’ll be a motivated player, looking to compete and ultimately earn a contract somewhere north of David Savard in free agency. He will sacrifice his body to win and be predictable and reliable for a coaching staff. The thing is, the two teams who traded for Savard and Chiarot both rue the price paid for them. Savard played 14:07 per night in Tampa’s Cup run, Chiarot skated an average of 17:17 in their second round exit. Both teams let those players walk to free agency that summer.