Why Edmonton Oilers must stick with Stuart Skinner over Jack Campbell in net for Game 5

Mike McKenna
Mike McKenna(MikeMcKenna56)
Why Edmonton Oilers must stick with Stuart Skinner over Jack Campbell in net for Game 5
Credit: Jack Campbell vs. Stuart Skinner ( © Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

Stuart Skinner should be the Oilers’ starting goalie for Game 5. But there’s not much leash left for the 24-year old hometown hero.

This won’t be an easy call for Edmonton coach Jay Woodcroft. After a shaky finish in Game 3 that saw Skinner and the Oilers lose 3-2 to the Kings in overtime, things didn’t improve in Game 4. 

Skinner allowed three goals on 11 shots, including a clean wrister to the five-hole off the stick of L.A. forward Victor Arvidsson. His rebound control was off. And the Edmonton netminder was replaced by Jack Campbell at the start of the second period.

The Oilers fought their way back into the game, eventually winning 5-4 in overtime. And Campbell got the job done. He stopped 27 of 28 Kings shots – including 17 in the second period alone – en route to victory.

With the series tied 2-2, and Edmonton now having home ice advantage for the remainder of the series, it’s critical that Woodcroft make the right decision in goal for his team.

And while I appreciate what Campbell did in Game 4 – including making a massive breakaway save on Arvidsson with 5:50 remaining in regulation – Skinner is the goaltender that needs to be between the pipes Tuesday for Edmonton.

The hard part for Woodcroft is that Campbell’s performance on Sunday may have saved the Oilers’ season. Usually a coach would want to reward the player. But unfortunately with Campbell, it’s complicated.

On one hand, Campbell has put up solid numbers during the Stanley Cup playoffs. In 15 career postseason appearances (14 of which came with the Toronto Maple Leafs), the Oilers goalkeeper has a 2.38 goals against average and .918 save percentage.

But on the other hand, Campbell really struggled in his first season as an Oiler. He allowed at least four goals 15 times in 34 starts, and his .888 save percentage was 55th among NHL goaltenders with at least 20 games played.

Campbell did finish the 2022-23 campaign on a high note, allowing just one goal in his final two starts. But previous to those games, he went seven straight allowing at least four.

Compare Campbell’s output to Skinner’s and it’s clear which goaltender has been more consistent. Skinner’s .914 save percentage during the regular season is a direct reflection of his steady play. Skinner allowed at least four goals in just 12 of 48 starts. And he was able to compile stout metrics despite posting only one shutout.

I think the hard part for Woodcroft is that Skinner’s play hasn’t been great so far in the postseason. I thought he was good in Game 2. And he’s shown flashes of brilliance in the other three games of the series. 

But when it comes down to it, Skinner has been beaten by clean shots too often. At times, he’s looked sluggish coming off his posts. And Skinner’s puckhandling is still a work in progress. Truth be told, I haven’t loved Skinner’s game thus far in round one against the Kings.

That has to be the hard part for Woodcroft, too. He knows Skinner has more to give. But can he really trust Campbell to take the ball and run with it? Woodcroft wasn’t able to during the regular season. No matter how much Campbell’s teammates love him, the simple reality is that the Oilers had to score in bunches in order to win with him in the cage.

I’m not a gambler by nature. So that makes me hesitant to believe Campbell can simply flip the switch and once again become a top NHL netminder. He may have stopped 27 of 28 Sunday, but there were several code brown moments where Campbell looked unsure of himself.

For me, Skinner has fewer nervous moments. And he’s got the technical edge on Campbell. Skinner’s steady, measured approach to goaltending is a key part of his consistency. As long as the Oilers play well defensively in front of the Edmonton native, they should win more often than not. 

But I think doubts are creeping in. And it’s why I think Skinner is likely on thin ice. If he’s given the start in Game 5, he has to play well. The pressure is real. Edmonton doesn’t want to go back to Los Angeles trailing 3-2 in the best-of-seven series.

One thing I can guarantee: for better or worse, what Skinner has gone through so far in this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs is good for his career. He will learn from this. And he’ll be better in the future.

The question is how quickly can Skinner study? Edmonton is in win-now mode. The Oilers aren’t looking to next year. Or the year after. Now is the time. And it’s up to Skinner to prove the crease still belongs to him.

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