Five changes the Edmonton Oilers must make to come back against the Vegas Golden Knights

Mike McKenna
Mike McKenna(MikeMcKenna56)
May 10, 2023, 10:16 EDT
Five changes the Edmonton Oilers must make to come back against the Vegas Golden Knights
Credit: Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner (© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

A dreary truth for the Oilers? They haven’t worked hard enough in two of three games against the Golden Knights, and the results show. After Monday’s dismal performance – a 5-1 loss on home ice – Edmonton is now trailing Vegas 2-1 in the best-of-seven second round matchup.

The Golden Knights controlled the pace of play on Monday night, especially at even strength. Improvement in that category is a must for Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft. But what’s causing the problems for Edmonton?

Here are five things that absolutely must happen for the Oilers to beat Vegas and move on to the Western Conference finals.

UP THE INTENSITY AROUND THE NET

Straight up: the Oilers were soft around their own net during Game 3. They let Vegas forward Jonathan Marchessault score twice in tight. And his Golden Knights teammates piled up 13 shots from the low slot. It’s simply unacceptable for big bodies like Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci to allow Vegas players to occupy that space without making their lives uncomfortable.

To be fair, it’s not like the Oilers gave up on Marchessault’s first goal of the game. Both Ceci and Nurse were engaged with a Golden Knights player in front of the net. But when Marchessault outmuscled Nurse a second time later in the first period to make it a 2-1 game in favor of Vegas, the wheels of defeat were in motion for Edmonton. 

The Oilers simply weren’t tough enough in front of starting goaltender Stuart Skinner. And that has to change. 

BETTER AWARENESS IN THE DEFENSIVE ZONE

It wasn’t just intensity that put the Oilers behind the proverbial eight ball. It was also a lack of awareness, and it started early. Even though Edmonton came out hot and scored first in Game 3, the Oilers allowed Vegas right back into the game with Marchessault’s first tally. 

Edmonton was guilty of double coverage twice in the lead up to Vegas’ opening goal. And it got worse as the game progressed. With under a minute remaining in the first period, the Oilers found themselves crossed up defending a Golden Knights rush chance. Once again, it was Marchessault that found the back of the net.

Playing man-on-man coverage against a three-versus-three rush shouldn’t be tough to figure out. But Edmonton worked themselves into a pretzel. And it happened again on Vegas’ third goal off the stick of defender Zach Whitecloud, just moments after Golden Knights teammate Reilly Smith drew two Edmonton players just inside the blueline.

The Oilers can’t afford to keep making mental errors with their defensive coverage. And it’s pretty clear the Golden Knights are purposefully crossing routes in the offensive zone. Vegas is trying to confuse Edmonton, and it’s working. The Oilers have to play smarter.

FIX THE NEUTRAL ZONE

Through the first two games of the series, Edmonton did a serviceable job of keeping Vegas at bay off the rush. But in Game 3, the Golden Knights broke through in a big way, scoring four of five goals off clean zone entries.

Vegas was able to gain easy access to the offensive zone while limiting what they gave up. Edmonton didn’t have a single high-danger chance in the second period of Game 3. For a team like the Oilers that is so dangerous on the rush, that’s not good enough.

As much as it’s about clogging up the neutral zone, it’s also about the Oilers winning battles deep in the offensive zone. When they don’t, Edmonton has had a nasty habit of two forwards getting stuck low and not being able to track back.

When that happens, Edmonton’s neutral zone system is easy to exploit along the walls. With only three players back to defend against the speed of Vegas through middle ice, the Oilers have been vulnerable.

MAKE A SAVE

There’s no way around it: Skinner hasn’t played up to his potential thus far in the postseason. And after getting yanked in Game 2, he’s now been pulled twice during the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs. I don’t think Skinner is tracking the puck very well. And he’s looked sluggish and robotic at times. Yet despite Jack Campbell playing quality minutes in relief twice during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Skinner still seems like the safest choice for Woodcroft.

But I’m not sure that means he’s the right man for the job. I wasn’t in love with Skinner’s play during the Oilers’ first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Kings. But I felt his regular season play made him the right option for Woodcroft, even after being pulled in Game 4. The Oilers coach must have agreed: Skinner has made every start of the postseason.

Now, down 2-1 in the series to Vegas, I think it’s time to start Campbell.

Why? Because if Skinner goes in and allows another four-spot to the Golden Knights, the series will be 3-1 in favor of Vegas. And at that point, going to Campbell would be a hail mary of the highest degree. The bottom line for me is I don’t feel confident in Skinner shutting the door. And the Oilers need a spark. I think playing in front of Campbell – no matter his woeful regular season statistics – could jumpstart Edmonton.

Honestly it feels weird for me to say Campbell should be the guy in Game 4 considering how tumultuous the 2022-23 season was for the American-born goaltender. But Skinner has struggled. And his .888 save percentage through nine Stanley Cup Playoff games is a far cry from the .914 the Edmonton native posted during the regular season.

Don’t get me wrong, the goal shown above is a great shot by Golden Knights defenseman Zach Whitecloud. But there have simply been too many clean shots that have gotten past the Edmonton netminder. Whitecloud’s tally is the type of goal that deflates an entire bench.

Skinner also came into the series with .878 save percentage in three career games against Vegas. Campbell, on the other hand, has a record of 5-1-0 against the Golden Knights along with a .956 save percentage. I think that matters.

Edmonton has yet to receive the game-changing saves needed to win consistently in the postseason. And while Campbell’s erratic history makes me nervous, I think the Oilers need him. Campbell also has a .918 save percentage in 16 career Stanley Cup Playoff games. He’s previously been able to handle the pressures of postseason hockey.

GET IT DONE 5-ON-5

No more waiting for the power play to come through. Even though Edmonton is clipping along at more than a 50 percent conversion rate with the man advantage, the Oilers can’t expect it to carry them any longer, especially against Vegas, who averaged the fewest times shorthanded per game during the regular season.

The Golden Knights are disciplined. And they can match the speed of Edmonton. As long as Vegas has their feet moving, the Oilers can’t expect to have many power plays. Edmonton needs to push the pace at even strength.

During 5-on-5 play in the series, the Golden Knights have outscored Edmonton 9-4. And with Vegas’ history of avoiding the penalty box, the Oilers likely don’t have many get-out-of-jail-free power play cards left.

How do the Oilers improve at even strength? See my first four requisites in this piece. Edmonton has to be better, especially in those areas. They have to defend harder. And they have to shut down the Golden Knights in transition.

The Oilers may have more top-end talent, but through three games, the Golden Knights have been the better team. And with Vegas leading the series 2-1 in games, Edmonton doesn’t have much room for error.

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