Florida Panthers vs. Boston Bruins: 2024 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Credit: Mar 26, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Boston Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy (73) shoots and scores a goal past Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky (72) in the first period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Panthers: 110 points, 1^st in Atlantic Division, def. TB in Round 1 (4-1)

Boston Bruins: 109 points, 2^nd in Atlantic Division, def. TOR in Round 1 (4-3)

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Monday, May 6	1. Boston at Florida	8 p.m. ET
Wednesday, May 8	2. Boston at Florida	TBD
Friday, May 10	3. Florida at Boston	TBD
Sunday, May 12	4. Florida at Boston	TBD
Tuesday, May 14	5. Boston at Florida*	TBD
Friday, May 17	6. Florida at Boston*	TBD
Sunday, May 19	7. Boston at Florida*	TBD

The Skinny

It’s a rematch, but the context has changed. The Florida Panthers were the plucky No. 8 seed a year ago, having qualified for the playoffs by a single point, and pulled a stunning comeback from a 3-1 series deficit in Round 1 to shock the 65-win Boston Bruins.

This time? The roles are reversed. The Panthers enter the series as the clear favorite, with no obvious weaknesses. They were NHL’s stingiest defensive club this season while also ranking 11^th in offense. They’re strong on the power play and penalty kill and ranked among the top teams in 5-on-5 play driving. They made things look pretty easy in Round 1 against Tampa Bay Lightning team that, while in decline, still was loaded with talent, including the reigning scoring champion in Nikita Kucherov.

In Round 1, the Bruins were a goal away from becoming the first NHL team to blow 3-1 series leads in consecutive seasons. They eked out a Game 7 overtime win over a Toronto Maple Leafs team that was missing one of William Nylander, Auston Matthews and goaltender Joseph Woll for every game. The glass-half-full perspective would say the Bruins enter Round 2 battle tested and galvanized after persevering in a do-or-die scenario. The glass-half-empty outlook would suggest the Bruins barely got by a depleted and flawed Toronto squad and are merely cannon fodder for the Panthers.

Head to Head

Florida: 0-2-2
Boston: 4-0-0

Though Boston owned the win-loss column, three of the four meetings were decided by one goal this season, including two in overtime. Goaltending was mostly the difference, however. The Bruins were badly outchanced at 5-on-5 in all four meetings but got to goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who was in net for all four Florida losses, posting an .871 save percentage.

Top Five Scorers

Florida

Carter Verhaeghe, 9 points
Matthew Tkachuk, 9 points
Aleksander Barkov, 5 points
Gustav Forsling, 4 points
Anton Lundell, 4 points

Boston

Brad Marchand, 8 points
Jake DeBrusk, 5 points
David Pastrnak, 5 points
Hampus Lindholm, 4 points
Charlie McAvoy, 4 points

X-Factor

If we were to hand out the Conn Smythe Trophy for one round of the playoffs, both teams would have strong candidates. Panthers left winger Carter Verhaeghe has emerged as one of the most clutch players of his generation. He racked up five goals and nine points across five games against Tampa in Round 1, including one overtime winner. Verhaeghe’s five career playoff OT goals already tie him for third in NHL history, and he’s only 28 years old.

As amazing as he was, arguably no player in the first round impacted his team’s performance more than goaltender Jeremy Swayman. He was so good against Toronto that he left Bruins coach Jim Montgomery no choice but to end the even rotation with Linus Ullmark. Swayman posted a .950 SV% in his six starts and came up with multiple season-saving stops in Game 7 Saturday night. Last spring, the Bruins got goalied by Bobrovsky. Can Swayman return the favor to the Panthers? Nothing equalizes two seemingly mismatched teams like a piping-hot goalie.

Offense

The Panthers aren’t quire the scintillating group that averaged more than four goals per game two years ago, but they’re an above-average attacking team with multiple lines deadly enough to qualify as first units. The Vladimir Tarasenko/Aleksander Barkov/Sam Reinhart trio broke even with its competition in Round 1, but that was because it had the toughest defensive assignments. Barkov is the Selke Trophy frontrunner and Reinhart likely received down-ballot votes this season, which is pretty amazing for a guy who also scored 57 goals. With Sam Bennett injured, third-year Panther Anton Lundell slid into Bennett’s spot alongside Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. They absolutely pancaked their opposition in Round 1, doubling them in shots, outscoring them 3-0 and generating more than 72 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5.

The Panthers’ active, mobile group of blueliners, including Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, gives them an offensive edge over many teams. The Panther power play converted at a respectable 23.1 percent vs. Tampa, consistent with its 23.5 percent mark for the regular season. Simply put, this team does most things well.

The Bruins were more of a middle-of-the-road offensive club this season, no longer the play-driving monsters they were when Patrice Bergeron was centering their top line. The first round was a microcosm of their regular season, really: they were nothing special at 5-on-5 but relied on a strong power play to keep them afloat, converting at 35.3 percent. The Bruins lack finishing ability – Pastrnak was their lone player to exceed 29 goals this season – but they are an opportunistic bunch who will punish teams for their defensive-zone breakdowns or disciplinary problems. The Panthers are the NHL’s most penalized team, so they have to avoid letting Boston play the game where it is strongest.

A crucial question for Round 2: Is Pastrnak 100 percent healthy? He struggled against the Leafs to the point Montgomery publicly slammed his performance after Game 6, but ‘Pasta’ showed up in a big way to score the overtime winner in Game 7. Against a stacked Florida team, the Bruins need No. 88 at his best.

Defense

The Panthers do an excellent job smothering opponents. Only the Hurricanes allowed fewer 5-on-5 scoring chances per 60, the Panthers ranked near the top of the league in most other defensive metrics and, once you couple their commitment to defense with their strong goaltending this season, no team allowed fewer goals in 2023-24. Their defensive prowess allows them to play a bullying brand of hockey; they led the NHL in hits and penalty minutes per game, but their sixth-ranked penalty kill kept them out of trouble. Even against the league’s No. 1 power play in Round 1, they killed off 80 percent of their penalties.

The Barkov line will likely be tasked with shutting down Pastrnak after holding Kucherov without a goal in the first round. The Forsling/Ekblad pair is the go-to unit on defense at 5-on-5 and on the top penalty kill, with Forsling now solidified as the team’s best all-around blueliner. The pairing of Niko Mikkola and Montour also handles some tougher matchups, while Ekman-Larsson and Dmitry Kulikov fared pretty well in sheltered assignments in Round 1.

The Bruins aren’t the defensive dynamos they were for so long in the Bergeron years, having ranked below average at scoring-chance suppression this season. They allowed almost 30 shots a game at 5-on-5 alone in Round 1. To Boston’s credit, however, they did a good job limiting the high-danger chances. And while one can argue the Toronto power play was its own worst enemy, the Bruins clearly deserve some credit for their 95.2 percent penalty-killing efficiency in Round 1.

The Bruins also probably have the most important defensive presence on either team’s blueline in Charlie McAvoy. Not only did they lean on him for 26:51 per game in Round 1, relying on his well-rounded, all-situations game and excellent skating, but he also delivered 34 hits across seven games. His ability to assert himself physically will be vital against the Panthers, the most rugged team in the NHL.

With McAvoy able to take care of himself, Montgomery is able to deploy Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo as a strong second pair. They had a 53.80 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 in Round 1.

Goaltending

Remember when Bobrovsky was known as the two-time Vezina Trophy winner who struggled in the playoffs? It had been true for much of his career before he took the net from Alex Lyon midway through the Boston series last year. ‘Bob’ went on a spectacular 12-game run in which he went 11-1-0 with a .942 save percentage, helping the Panthers knock out the Bruins, Leafs and Hurricanes, before he seemed to gas in the Stanley Cup Final.

‘Good Playoff Bobrovsky’ showed up again in Round 1 of the 2023-24 Stanley Cup playoffs. Well, sort of. He only posted an .896 SV% but that was skewed by one six-goal defeat. He allowed two or fewer goals in three of Florida’s four wins and came up with some spectacular saves in key moments, none better than this all-timer. Bobrovsky wasn’t asked to do too much, facing between 19 and 32 shots every game against Tampa, but he looked good enough to inspire confidence. If anything were to go wrong, the Panthers have one of the league’s better backups behind him in Anthony Stolarz. The 6-foot-6 behemoth was spectacular this season, going 16-7-2 with a 2.03 goals-against average and .925 SV%.

Given they won the series by a goal, it’s not hyperbolic to claim the Bruins wouldn’t be here without Swayman, who was nothing less than excellent in every single game he played in Round 1, including the two games he lost. If he falters in any way, the Bruins still have Ullmark to fall back on. The 2022-23 Vezina Trophy winner was also great during his only start of Round 1.

Injuries

Bennett took a Brandon Montour slapshot to the left hand/wrist area in Game 2, left the ice immediately and did not return for the rest of Round 1. The Panthers got good news about the injury overall, however, as he was expected to miss roughly a week. More than a week has now passed, meaning Bennett could be back during Round 2. He’s listed as day to day for now and will miss Monday’s Game 1.

The Bruins lost bruising defenseman Andrew Peeke to a finger injury in Game 2 against Toronto and, as of a few days ago, was described by Montgomery as “not close” to returning. First-line left winger Danton Heinen missed Games 6 and 7 with an undisclosed injury and his status for Game 1 is unclear.

Intangibles

The Panthers dusted the Lightning 6-1 to clinch their series last Monday, meaning they got a full week of rest between series. The Bruins have a two-day turnaround after a seven-game war and went to overtime in two of their final three contests. The Panthers should have a major physical advantage. Mentally, though, is a full week off almost too much time? Sometimes, the team only 48 hours removed from fighting for its life strides into the next round with more killer instinct.

Series Prediction

The Bruins should be commended for fighting off a choke in Round 1 in a back-and-forth series with Toronto. But it can’t be overstated how much effort it took the Bruins to put away a banged-up, defensively shaky opponent that was completely lost on the power play. The Panthers are in another league as an opponent, one of the most balanced teams in the league. They’re big, mean, loaded with star-level talent, defensively sound, strong on special teams, better than Boston almost everywhere. The Bruins have to hope they can channel the same underdog energy the Panthers used against them a year ago. But if we take the emotion out of it: this is quite a mismatch on paper.

Panthers in five games.

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