How Maple Leafs can conquer ‘home ice disadvantage’ in Game 6 vs. Bruins

Credit: Apr 24, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak (88) and Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) battle along the boards during the first period of game three of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Maple Leafs have life. They ground out a courageous overtime road victory over the Boston Bruins in Game 5 Tuesday, extending the series to 3-2 and doing so without superstar Auston Matthews in the lineup.

But now, the Leafs enter Game 6 facing a challenge that has proven insurmountable to them of late. It’s not Jeremy Swayman or David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand or even the Bruins per se. It’s not Matthews’ mysterious illness. It’s…the unfriendly confines of Scotiabank Arena, where this team has not been able to buy a victory in recent postseasons.

Dating back to last spring, Toronto has lost a whopping six consecutive games at home in the playoffs. Home struggles have been a consistent problem in the Matthews/Mitch Marner era, which has included eight consecutive playoff berths beginning in 2016-17.

Here’s a snapshot of Toronto’s home playoff results in the past eight years, factoring out the 2020 and 2021 runs which were played (almost) exclusively without fans:

Year	Opponent score	Leaf score	Result
2017	3	4	W
2017	5	4	L
2017	2	1	L
2018	2	4	W
2018	3	1	L
2018	1	3	W
2019	2	3	W
2019	6	4	L
2019	4	2	L
2022	0	5	W
2022	5	3	L
2022	3	4	W
2022	2	1	L
2023	7	3	L
2023	2	7	W
2023	4	2	L
2023	4	2	L
2023	3	2	L
2023	3	2	L
2024	4	2	L
2024	3	1	L
TOTAL	68	60	7-14

The Leafs have an astoundingly poor .333 win percentage at home in games with full fan capacity in the Matthews/Marner era. They’ve gone 1-8 in their past nine playoff home games dating back to last season. After the Game 5 win, coach Sheldon Keefe acknowledged the Leafs’ home struggles and expressed his hope that the club could right the wrong.

The home-ice disadvantage is very tough to explain. What can the Leafs do to remedy it in Game 6? Here are a few ideas.

1. Simplify on offense and throw more pucks on net

In 5-on-5 play, the Leafs’ three highest totals of the series in shots on goal, scoring chances and expected goals have come in their three road games. In Game 5, perhaps understanding they couldn’t play with peak finesse in Matthews’ absence, they were more experimental. They shot from all angles. Jake McCabe scored on a point shot. Matthew Knies’ overtime winner came after John Tavares lowered his shoulder and drove hard to the net. At home, the Leafs have played a far more cautious game. They had a series-low 14 scoring chances at 5-on-5 in Game 4, attempting one too many puck touches and doubling back in the offensive zone when they had possession. The play Tavares made on the winning goal in Game 5 was simple, decisive and confident: corral puck, skate with puck, charge with puck toward net. It represents the mentality Toronto needs in Game 6.

2. Pray for positive regression on the power play

The Leafs’ power play has reached self parody, converting at a staggering 5.9 percent this postseason, consistently struggling to the point the Bruins sometimes kill penalties off before Toronto even gets set up in the offensive zone once. At least, that’s what our eyes tell us. It looks a mess. Statistically, though: the Leafs have actually been mid-pack on the power play these playoffs in terms of how many shots, scoring chances and high-danger chances they average. The problem is that they’ve scored on 3.7 percent of their power-play shots on goal. To offer perspective on how improbable that is: the worst power-play shooting percentage in the entire NHL this regular season belonged to the Philadelphia Flyers at 8.4 percent. Of the league’s 32 teams, 29 converted on 10 percent of their shots or better across their 82-game schedules.

So no matter how awful the Leafs’ power play appears to be, bad luck is the primary culprit, more than nerves or indecisiveness or the home fans conjuring the ghost of Tomas Kaberle by yelling, “SHOOOOT!” Positive regression has to kick in at some point.

3. Turn the emotional tables on Boston’s stars

One thing we saw for the first time all series in Game 5: the Bruins’ best players, Pastrnak and Marchand, showing frustration and getting wrapped up in shenanigans between whistles, especially Marchand, who took a tumble with an official. Typically, it’s Marchand drawing opponents into trouble, but it felt like he was the distracted one in Game 5, to the point Bruins coach Jim Montgomery had to settle him down on the bench. The Bruins, for all their strengths as a team, don’t have as much high-end skill as the Leafs do. If you can get just No. 88 and 63 off their games or even into the sin bin, it’s a worthy pursuit.

4. The Joseph Woll factor

Ilya Samsonov couldn’t make enough pivotal saves early in the series to keep Toronto’s crease, ceding it to Joseph Woll beginning with the third period of Game 4. Samsonov has a 2-9 career record at home in the postseason, including a 1-6 mark as a Maple Leaf. He as been pulled from two of those games. He has allowed three or more goals in eight of his past nine home playoff appearances.

Woll, who was Toronto’s hero in Game 5 with some incredible, game-changing stops, has a smaller home playoff sample size from which we can judge, consisting of two relief appearances and one start. But in that start, he stopped 40 of 43 shots, good for a .930 save percentage, in an elimination game that the Florida Panthers won in overtime. He did not shrink from the moment. His poised demeanor makes the Leafs “feel safe,” as Knies put it after Game 5. And, really, Samsonov has been bad enough at home that there’s really nowhere to go but up with Woll in net.

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