Mission, Impossible: What happens if the Toronto Maple Leafs have no answer for Matthew Tkachuk?

Credit: Matthew Tkachuk (© Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

TORONTO – Boom. David Kampf, meet Samuel Hunter Bennett. One third of the scariest line in the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs.

The bone-crunching hit he delivered on Toronto’s checking center in the first period earned Bennett a deserved elbowing penalty. But it also sent a message to the Toronto Maple Leafs: we are the Florida Panthers, we just beat the Boston Bruins, and we’re going to come into your building and treat every forechecking session like a game of Whack-a-Mole.

It’s not that the Leafs weren’t accustomed to the challenge of a bruising opponent. They just took out the biggest and, arguably, most physical team in the NHL in the Tampa Bay Lightning, with the cuts and black eyes to prove it. But the Panthers brought a different type of feral energy to open Game 1 of their second-round matchup with the Leafs. This team truly has nothing to lose. And it has a particular line that might be the most dominant in the playoffs right now.

A big question going into the series was: will the Leafs have an answer for Matthew Tkachuk, Bennett and, to a lesser extent, Nick Cousins? That line churned the Bruins into butter in Round 1, outscoring them 7-2 at 5-on-5 when Tkachuk was out there, and wasted no time punching the Leafs in the mouth Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena. To create the series’ first goal, Tkachuk dangled around new Selke Trophy finalist Mitch Marner to create himself a clean look at goaltender Ilya Samsonov before Cousins cleaned up the rebound. Early in the second period, it was Bennett’s turn, deflecting home an Aaron Ekblad point shot.

These Leafs, to their credit, have proven a resilient bunch so far in the postseason, and they roared back just 11 seconds after Bennett’s goal on a stunning, between-the-legs spin-o-rama tally from impressive rookie Matthew Knies, his first as an NHLer. Michael Bunting, showing fresh legs in his second game back after a suspension and healthy scratch cost him four games in Round 1, equalled the score at 2-2. And the Leafs made a concerted effort in the second period to answer the physical bell, putting their share of licks on the Panthers.

Most notably, they did so when out there against Tkachuk. The Leafs’ two hardest-hitting blueliners, acquired by GM Kyle Dubas at the Trade Deadline, evidently were handed search and destroy missions before the game. Luke Schenn and Jake McCabe each caught No. 19 with heavy, clean hits in the second and third period, respectively. But it’s one thing to establish yourself physically against a dangerous opponent. It’s another when that player attracts so much focus that his mere presence gets you off your game. That’s what happened halfway through the third period when, with the Leafs pushing for an equalizer, McCabe went out of his way to blow up Tkachuk again – about 200 feet from Toronto’s net. On the delayed penalty to McCabe, guess who set up another Panther goal? Tkachuk, feeding blueliner Brandon Montour for a blast for the point.

With Tkachuk on the ice at 5-on-5 in Game 1, the shot attempts were 26-8 for the Panthers, the shots on goal 13-5, the scoring chances 11-4. With his three assists, he now leads the Stanley Cup playoffs with 14 points in eight games. The Leafs simply had nothing close to an answer for his line in Game 1.

“They do a really good job below that crease, below that goal line and make plays out of it,” Marner said. “They crash the net hard and get those second opportunities. So we’ve got to do a better job making it harder to get out of that goal line.”

It’s not like the Leafs didn’t see Tkachuk coming. As Schenn pointed out after the game, the Leafs had seen them plenty including as recently as April 10. But when you’re lulled into the rhythm of facing one opponent for an entire series, it can be a jarring adjustment to the next one. Hey, the Leafs aren’t used to playing in the second round of the playoffs, don’t forget. These Panthers were a bucket of ice water to the face.

“Their pace is high. I would say it’s a quicker pace out there (than Tampa Bay’s),” said coach Sheldon Keefe. “They’ve got a lot of skill that executes at a high rate of speed. I would say that’s a difference. But also you can tell they’ve got a lot of confidence and they’re feeling really good right now, playing really well.”

So how do the Leafs do a better job handling that matchup? Even Marner, who has been voted one of the three best defensive forwards in the league this year, allowed Tkachuk a 77 percent expected goals rate at 5-on-5 in Game 1. Tkachuk’s line spent roughly an equal amount of time against each of Toronto’s top defensive pairs, McCabe and T.J. Brodie and Morgan Rielly and Luke Schenn, and pulverized them all in the play-driving stats.

Real talk: it’s possible there simply isn’t a way for the Leafs, a decidedly middling defensive club, to stop Tkachuk and Co. Hey, not even the 65-win Bruins could, right? Tkachuk was the second most dominant player in the NHL after Connor McDavid this season. The Leafs’ only way out might therefore be to do what they do best: score. They didn’t do enough of it in Game 1, but as Keefe said, they were right there. They had plenty of clean, high-quality opportunities on the power play but couldn’t convert. On paper, it was an 0 for 4, but the Leafs weren’t being stymied and pressured the way they were in Game 5 and 6 against Tampa. They matched the Panthers’ 11 high-danger chances at 5-on-5, and the scoring chance margin was 25-20. But goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, in net for each of the Panthers’ four consecutive wins, outduelled Samsonov.

Something has to give if the Leafs, who are now 1-3 at home in in the playoffs, want this to be a competitive series. Their mission, should they choose to accept it: find a way to stop the Tkachuk line, or find a way for their own stars to outscore it.

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Mission, Impossible: What happens if the Toronto Maple Leafs have no answer for Matthew Tkachuk?

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