Toronto vs. Minnesota: 2024 Walter Cup playoff series preview and pick
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time |
| Wednesday, May 8 | 1. Minnesota at Toronto | 7 p.m. ET |
| Friday, May 10 | 2. Minnesota at Toronto | 7 p.m. ET |
| Monday, May 13 | 3. Toronto at Minnesota | 8 p.m. ET |
| Wednesday, May 15 | 4. Toronto at Minnesota* | 8 p.m. ET |
| Friday, May 17 | 5. Minnesota at Toronto* | 7 p.m. ET |
*if necessary
The Skinny
Before the league played its first game on Jan. 1, I had Toronto as my preseason pick to be not just the best team in the league, but its first champion. They struggled out the gate, and many including myself wondered if the team could score enough goals, or if goaltender Kristen Campbell would be good enough to lead this team to glory.
Fast forward a few months, and not only did they compile an 11-game winning streak, but two of the league’s top scorers came from their roster, including the leading candidate for the Billie Jean MVP Award, Natalie Spooner. Throw in the top defensive pairing in the league of Jocelyne Larocque and Renata Fast, and you have a recipe for my pick to win the Walter Cup.
As for Minnesota, there was a stretch through the regular season that my DFO colleague Tyler Kuehl and I had Minnesota in the No. 1 spot for a good chunk of our weekly Power Rankings. In fact, right before the three-week international pause between March and April, Minnesota had won five straight and we both had them as the No. 2 team in the league.
But losing five straight to close out the season, including a May 1 4-1 drubbing to the very Toronto team they’ll face Wednesday night, indicates they’re not in a good spot going into the playoffs. Grace Zumwinkle has had a fantastic rookie season and captain Kendall Coyne-Schofield was just outside the top-10 in points, but it’s going to take outrageously good goaltending and some offensive sparks for this team to get to the Walter Cup Final.
Head-to-Head
After Minnesota won their first contest 3-1 on Jan. 10, Toronto won their next three games by a combined score of 12-5, with Spooner and Sarah Nurse each scoring three goals through their head-to-head matchups. In that last matchup on May 1, a 4-1 Toronto win that clinched the No. 1 spot for Toronto, they looked particularly dominant, controlling the pace of play through the second half of the game and never letting Minnesota get back in the game.
No matter what league it is, when it comes to the playoffs, special teams is a massive factor, and Toronto’s found plenty of success on the power play against Minnesota, scoring four goals with the one-skater advantage.
Top Five Scorers
Toronto
Natalie Spooner – 27 points
Sarah Nurse – 23 points
Emma Maltais – 19 points
Hannah Miller – 14 points
Minnesota
Grace Zumwinkle – 19 points
Kendall Coyne-Schofield – 16 points
Kelly Pannek – 16 points
Taylor Heise – 13 points
Sophie Jaques – 10 points
X-Factor
If Toronto wants to come out of this series with a three-game sweep, the key to their success will be shutting down Minnesota’s top-heavy offense, and that starts with that aforementioned pairing of Larocque-Fast. The duo averages nearly 30 minutes of ice time every game, and you’ll bet that with the last change at home, they’ll try to shut down the likes of Zumwinkle, Coyne-Schofield and Kelly Pannek. If they suffocate any and all Minnesota scoring chances, this series will be over next Monday.
For Minnesota, the X-factor will be Nicole Hensley’s world-class goaltending. A lot of Minnesota’s early success was due to Hensley and Maddie Rooney’s fantastic performances, posting a combined .918 SV% and three shutouts. If Minnesota wants to shock the hockey world and get past Toronto, they’ll need Hensley to steal at least a game or two, especially on the road.
Offense
What’s not to love about Toronto’s offense? Spooner finished with both the most goals and most points in the league, and as mentioned, will likely take home the Billie Jean MVP Award. Nurse started out slow but finished near the top of the league in every offensive category, scoring 11 goals and 12 assists for 23 points.
If Toronto really wants to run away with this, then getting depth scoring from the likes of Hannah Miller, Brittany Howard, Rebecca Leslie and team captain Blayre Turnbull will go a long way in ending this series early, as well as giving this team the confidence to know that on any given night, anyone can get on the scoresheet.
Minnesota, like Toronto, will also need their depth forwards to step up, but in a much more desperate, cataclysmic, we need goals and we needed them yesterday, kinda way. Heise was the 2022 Patty Kazmaier Award-winner and the No. 1 overall pick in last September’s PWHL Draft, and started the season strongly. But with just one goal in her last 12 games, Minnesota needs their young phenom to be better.
What didn’t help Minnesota was their lack of power-play goals at the end of the season, going one-for-15 in their last five games. As mentioned earlier, how you do on special teams can have a big impact on how you do in the postseason, and if the end of the regular season is any indication, the team from the State of Hockey will need to step up.
Defense
We’ve mentioned the Larocque-Fast pairing, but Allie Munroe and Kali Flanigan have also been one of Toronto’s reliable pairings, and they’ll be asked to shut down Minnesota’s depth forwards from providing any secondary offense.
Up front, Turnbull will have the same responsibilities against the likes of Zumwinkle and Coyne-Schofield. The Toronto captain is one of the best two-way players in the world, and in an environment like playoff hockey where goals are so valuable, stopping the other team from scoring them can be just as valuable as scoring them yourself.
The Minnesota pairing of Lee Stecklein and Sophie Jaques will have plenty of responsibility in this series, and head coach Ken Klee will do his best to put them out against either Toronto’s Maltais-Nurse-Howard line, or Miller-Turnbull-Spooner. Same goes for the likes of Melissa Channell and Natalie Buchbinder, who will likely get the aforementioned line that Jaques and Stecklein don’t.
Bonus point for Minnesota: if they want to generate offense, then Jaques will have to provide some either with bombs from the point or via her silky-smooth passing. The reigning Patty Kazmaier-winning blueliner has to contribute in more ways than just shutting down the opponent.
Goaltending
It starts and ends with Toronto’s Campbell, who as mentioned, had a bit of a slow start and looked like she’d be one of the league’s weaker starters, but has since carved out her spot near the top of the PWHL. Starting in all but two of the team’s games this season, she finished with a 1.99 GAA and .927 SV%, including three shutouts, and started every game of Toronto’s 11-game winning streak. It will be a tall task for Minnesota to generate offense on the University of Wisconsin alumnus.
MInnesota was blessed to have two elite goaltenders in Hensley and Rooney, but both looked a bit rusty towards the end of the season, allowing a combined 20 goals in the last five games. But hope springs eternal and everyone’s record is now 0-0. As mentioned earlier when it comes to X-factors, if Minnesota is going to take this series, they’ll need their goaltending to steal them at least one game, and probably two. Considering how good both their netminders are, that isn’t unrealistic at all.
Injuries
Toronto has stayed shockingly healthy through the season, not losing any star players to injury. In fact, 17 players on their roster played either all 24 games or only missed one. The only player to miss an extended period of time was Olivia Knowles, who missed a few games in January with an injury.
Minnesota goes into the postseason mostly healthy, although Heise missed a handful of games earlier in the year, which may have taken her out of her rhythm and routine, causing her to struggle in the later-half of the season. Sydney Brodt had surgery in December after sustaining an injury in training camp, and didn’t play until March. She had one assist in her seven regular-season games.
Intangibles
Toronto has plenty of Team Canada star power, and the recent World Championship success in Utica, N.Y.. gives a good chunk of the lineup a taste of what it’s like playing in a high-energy environment.
But the same can be said for Minnesota’s Coyne-Schofield and Hensley, and the taste of a silver medal might be enough to make them both go beast mode and grab this series.
Series Prediction
Maybe it’s the arrogance of having watched how good Toronto was through the season, but it feels like they’re going to take this series, and rather quickly. I have no doubt Minnesota has talent and we could see them give the home team a run for their money in Game 1 on Wednesday, but Toronto is the better team and they’ve played well going into May.
I have Toronto winning this 3-1.