Why an Erik Karlsson trade is a tall order for the San Jose Sharks

Credit: © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!

____

With less than two months remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.

Today we’re going to focus on San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson, who was No. 10 on our latest Trade Targets board last week.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 50 Days

ERIK KARLSSON
Defenseman, San Jose Sharks
Shoots: Right
Age: 32
Height: 6’0″ | Weight: 190 lbs.
Cap Hit: $11.5 million AAV
Term: 4 seasons remaining
Trade Clauses: Full ‘no-trade,’ full ‘no-move’ clauses
Stats: 23 GP, 13 goals, 43 assists, 56 points, 25:15 avg TOI
Career: 14th season (nine in Ottawa), 881 GP, 166 goals, 716 points, 25:28 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Puck Mover, Top Pair

Karlsson was the No. 16 ranked Puck-Moving Defenseman in Daily Faceoff’s Archetype Ranking series prior to the season. Ideally, Karlsson plays in a featured offensive role at both even-strength and on the power play, and he is partnered with a reliable, stay-at-home defenseman who is an above average defender.

Scouting Report

After two Norris Trophies and 14 seasons, there are no secrets about Karlsson and his game. Karlsson is one of the NHL’s elite offensive defensemen of all-time. Since joining the Sharks in 2018, he ranks 13th among defensemen in total points (198) and 10th in points per 60 minutes (1.93). Perhaps most impressively, only 66 of Karlsson’s 198 points in that span came on the power play, meaning the majority of his damage was done at even-strength.

There are many reasons why Karlsson is elite. His offensive hockey sense is off the charts. He not only has the ability to recognize dangerous space moving into the zone, but he can get there to be a legitimate option without the puck. With the puck, he can create space because he is so elusive. His lateral mobility baits defenders into poor positions, where he can slip by and give himself and teammates better looks.

His hands, coupled with his sense and timing, allow him to quickly change direction with the puck. They also contribute to his quick, hard and accurate shot – which makes him a threat from distance. He is also deceptive, using his shot as a threat to open lanes to then distribute.

Even though he’s suffered significant Achilles and ankle injuries, he is still an elite skater who can transport the puck with ease. According to Stathletes, Karlsson was the No. 1 player last season in successful zone exits by carry last season.

The question teams want answered: What’s behind Karlsson’s impressive resurgence this season?

With 56 points in the first half of this season, Karlsson has already beaten his single best point total in a Sharks uniform by a wide margin. The most simple answer is no more Brent Burns. Karlsson has oxygen to breathe. When Burns was in San Jose, he’d play the lion’s share of his 5-on-5 and power play minutes with San Jose’s best players including Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier and Logan Couture.

This season, with Burns in Carolina, Karlsson is getting more opportunity with the Sharks’ top players and on the first unit of the power play, hence the boost in production. His total ice time is up nearly two minutes per game, back to the 25-minute-plus level he was accustomed to in Ottawa. Secondly, health has been a big factor. Prior to this year, Karlsson had missed 79 games over four seasons due to injury. He hasn’t missed one game this season.

Buyer Beware

After two Norris Trophies and 14 seasons, there are no secrets about the deficiencies in Karlsson’s game, either. He is a generally poor defender, in large part because he is so heavily involved in the offense. He takes a high-risk approach on the back-end. He is a classic “rover,” almost a fourth forward on the ice. When defending the rush, Karlsson has strong hand-eye coordination and routinely picks pucks and passes out of the air. The trouble is, he isn’t always defending the rush – but skating to get back.

In the defensive zone, his play can best be described as “permissive.” He is passive in his willingness to attack and cut off offense, and he does not eagerly block shots, which means the opposition can generate dangerous looks around him. That said, his actual on-ice results equate to a “defense by offense” because he has the puck so much. He manages to tilt play in the right direction. With Karlsson on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the Sharks hold a 529-418 edge in scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick.

With his elite offensive talent, teams are easily able to overlook the bad for the good. But more concerning than his defense is his contract. Karlsson’s deal does not expire until 2027, just after his 37th birthday.

Given the restrictive and unforgiving nature of the salary cap, $11.5 million is an enormous salary cap hit for an elite defenseman in his prime, let alone a 32-year-old enjoying a renaissance season with a significant injury history. Karlsson also holds all the cards with a full ‘no-trade’ veto but as recently as this week has expressed his desire to win – and given that the Sharks are in the midst of a full-scale rebuild, he knows that won’t be in San Jose.

It’s important to keep in mind that with $11 million due to Karlsson in signing bonus over the last two seasons of his contract, it is essentially “buyout proof.” That signing bonus money makes for a balloon salary cap hit that will be difficult for any team to swallow should the need arise. This means that not only if Karlsson is acquired will he retain control over his future destination, but also that if he underperforms, it will be increasingly difficult the sever ties with him.

Potential Fits

This week, the San Jose Sharks reportedly asked for three first-round picks in exchange for Karlsson, with the Sharks willing to retain 18 percent of his contract. That would knock Karlsson down to a roughly $9.4 million salary cap hit.

Ottawa Senators: Welcome home, Karl. Karlsson still spends a bit of his summers in Ottawa and he could return on the other side of a rebuild to an emerging Senators team and form a formidable top four with Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub. The Sens’ fanbase would explode with excitement. One roadblock is the acquisition cost: it doesn’t seem like the Sens would be willing to trade that type of draft capital. Another is need in that Karlsson may be a little bit redundant, even if he is better than Chabot. Then there is the potential salary cap issue. How many $8 million-plus players can the Sens afford? Chabot, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Tim Stutzle are already there. What happens to Alex DeBrincat and his next deal? The accounting becomes difficult.
There are potential roadblocks in just about every other market you could hypothesize. Would the Seattle Kraken be that aggressive? How about the Columbus Blue Jackets after their expensive summer? Do the Winnipeg Jets need Karlsson with Josh Morrissey’s production? Could the Toronto Maple Leafs fit him in not just this season but beyond as their expensive forward contracts need renewals? What about the Washington Capitals, where John Carlson already runs their power play? None of them are truly perfect fits, and after connecting all of those dots, the next question is: Would Karlsson want to go to any of those places?

Sizing up the Market

Other Defensemen Available: LD Jakob Chychrun (Arizona), RD John Klingberg (Anaheim), LD Shayne Gostisbehere (Arizona).

Potentially available defensemen: LD Cam Fowler (Anaheim), RD Matt Dumba (Minnesota).

Pending free agents this summer: RD Damon Severson (New Jersey), Klingberg, Gostisbehere.

Comparable Trade Returns

Unprecedented. There are no comparable trade returns because a trade like this has never happened in NHL history. Only one of the 14 players in NHL history with an eight-figure cap hit has ever been traded (Jack Eichel), and while there may have been similar injury concerns, Eichel was 25 at the time of his trade to the Vegas Golden Knights.

Summary

With Karlsson having the renaissance year few could have predicted, it’s easy to see why San Jose would want to be aggressive in trying to break free from the shackles of his $92 million contract. There is no doubt that Karlsson the player can help a team. But as the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL, his contract calls for him to be the best all-around blueliner – yet he is not that, and at age 32, Father Time is undefeated and it’s fair to assume a decline is in order. If Karlsson is to move at all, it will depend on a mixture of San Jose’s eagerness to bend, a team’s need for a game-breaking point producer, and Karlsson’s own willingness to go there. His trade market is incredibly difficult to gauge, making it more unlikely than likely that he is traded before the deadline.

_____