Why Capitals center Nic Dowd could be this deadline’s version of Barclay Goodrow in 2020

Credit: © Jamie Sabau

Exactly one week away from the NHL’s March 8 trade deadline, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day until Deadline Day.

Today we continue our player profile series with Washington Capitals center Nic Dowd, who is No. 7 on our Trade Targets board. The Capitals are scrapping for their playoff lives and Dowd, who has been out with an injury since Feb. 20, is close to returning to the lineup.

2024 Trade Deadline Countdown: 7 Days

NIC DOWD
Center, Washington Capitals
Shoots: Right
Age: 33
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 196 lbs
Cap Hit: $1.3 million
Term: 1 year remaining
2023-24 Stats: 45 GP, 8 G, 8 A, 16 Pts, 15:27 TOI
Career Stats: 9th season (Los Angeles, Vancouver, Washington), 481 GP, 66 G, 77 A, 143 Pts
Best Year: 2022-23, 65 GP, 13 G, 12 A, 25 Pts, plus-6, 15:27 TOI
Playoffs: 4 appearances, 1 round won, 26 GP, 4 G, 1 A, 5 Pts

Archetype and Ideal Role

Penalty Kill Specialist, Fourth Line Center

Going back to August, NHL teams have been phoning to gauge the potential trade deadline availability of one of the more anonymous players in the league. But there is a reason why Dowd, a seventh-round pick who hails from Alabama, has carved out a nearly 500-game NHL career for himself. He works, the details in his game are meticulous, and just as importantly – he is properly compensated at $1.3 million and has one year left on his deal.

Scouting Report

Dowd is what coaches would call a “details” player. He is reliable and predictable, which coaches crave – they know what they’re getting out of him every time they pencil him into the lineup card. What does his role entail? Dowd is an ace penalty killer, he is on the correct side of the puck, he wins battles, makes simple plays and chips in the occasional goal.

Let’s unpack some of those cliche descriptions with some data. Dowd and linemate Beck Malenstyn anchor Washington’s top penalty killing unit, averaging more than 2:30 per game while short a man, and the unit ranks 13th in the league operating at 80 percent this season.

He wins battles: Dowd ranks 67th among all 566 forwards in puck recoveries (all situations) per 60 minutes, according to Stathletes. He is almost always on the right side of the puck: Dowd ranks 20th among all forwards in pass interceptions per 60 minutes. He is 85th in pass deflections per 60 minutes that lead to turnovers. Dowd is swift and smart with his stick and he angles players appropriately to kill plays. He plays with anticipation, urgency and awareness.

And he pops home goals. An acquiring team can’t expect an offensive explosion, but Dowd has a consistently excellent shooting percentage (96th to 99th percentile) because the majority of his limited shots on goal are high percentage plays and his hands are solid in-tight.

Buyer Beware

With a player like Dowd, it’s important to set proper expectations about what you are and are not getting, as his skillset does have limitations. Dowd is certainly not a burner with wheels. According to NHL EDGE puck and player tracking, Dowd ranks below the 50th percentile in almost all of the skating speed metrics, and he could potentially be a liability in a track meet-type playoff series or if he gets stuck on the ice against an opponent’s top line for an extended period of time.

Additionally, Dowd’s faceoff numbers are not great. He wins just 48 percent of his draws in the defensive zone and his 45.7 win rate on the penalty kill is problematic. That is not an aberration either, as Dowd was just 37.9 percent on faceoffs while on the ‘kill last year, too.

There is also a slight question of health and durability. Dowd is out right now and though he is due back soon, he has missed 13 games already this season, on top of the 17 and 18 he was injured for over the last two seasons. The extent and/or relation of those injuries is unclear and only a complete evaluation of his medical records will tell, which is typically available to acquiring teams on request.

Potential Suitors

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs have been in the center market for weeks, and although they’re seeking a second line center, the truth is Colorado has coveted High IQ players previously so they should be considered. He’s a real upgrade on Chris Wagner.
Detroit Red Wings: Steve Yzerman had Luke Glendening for a while and Dowd is Glendening on steroids. The fact that he can help next year too at a reasonable number and supplant Christian Fischer is a decent acquisition for a team that will get in but might not go deep.
Edmonton Oilers: Dowd is a clear upgrade on Derek Ryan and the Oilers could work out a package with Washington that could also include Anthony Mantha and/or Joel Edmundson to kill multiple birds in one shot.
Florida Panthers: The Cats have limited assets, which makes it a bit of a longer shot that they will spend on a lower-impact player, but GM Bill Zito could take a page out of cross-state Julien BrisBbois’s playbook.
Los Angeles Kings: Dowd started his career with the Kings and then moved onto Vancouver before Washington, and he won’t cost a lot on the cap as the Kings could use some more veteran support.
Toronto Maple Leafs: GM Brad Treliving doesn’t want to spend for rentals, so Dowd checks that box, as well as providing much needed bottom-six support.
Vegas Golden Knights: Currently, Byron Froese – a replacement level player – is occupying the Golden Knights’ 4C slot. There have been injuries and roster chaos, and Vegas is focused on a winger, but they should have some cap room leftover to also improve down the middle.

Comparable Trade Returns

Feb. 24, 2020
To Tampa Bay: Barclay Goodrow, 2020 3rd Rd Pick
To San Jose: 2020 1st Rd Pick (No. 30 overall), Anthony Greco

Feb. 23, 2023
To Boston: Dmitry Orlov (75% retained), Garnet Hathaway, Andrei Svetlakov
To Washington: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 28 overall), 2025 2nd Rd Pick, 2024 3rd Rd Pick, Craig Smith
To Minnesota: 2023 5th Rd Pick

March 3, 2023
To Buffalo: Jordan Greenway
To Minnesota: 2023 2nd Rd Pick, 2024 5th Rd Pick

When considering Dowd’s case, it’s easy to draw a line to the return Goodrow brought for Tampa Bay and say that is the perfect comparable. The fact that both are bottom-six centers with one additional year left on their deal at reasonable prices ($900k vs. $1.3 million) makes it certainly applicable.

But in this copycat league, every team has been asking for late first-round picks for players of Dowd’s skillset in the three deadlines since that deal, and they haven’t been moving.

However, we can draw on two deals last year as other comparables as to what a package might look like if a team does not want to part with a first for Dowd. Boil down the Capitals/Bruins trade last year, and it essentially comes out to a first-round pick for Orlov, plus second and thirds for Hathaway, and then Craig Smith helps move the money around. The difference there, of course, is that Hathaway was a rental.

It’s a little less applicable, but one of the other forwards under team control moved last year was Greenway for a second and fifth. Greenway had higher lineup potential, plus a valuable combination of size and skillset, and two years remaining on his contract.

Either way, ballpark the return between a very late first-round pick for Dowd or package that includes second and third/fourth round picks. If he’s going to trade Dowd after six seasons in the District, those are the uprights for GM Brian MacLellan to kick through.

Summary

Some fans may balk at trading quality draft capital for bottom-of-the-lineup upgrades, but Dowd isn’t a rental and hockey is different. For whatever reason, during deep Stanley Cup playoff runs, teams seem to rely on their fourth line more than they ever do in the regular season. Dowd can score a timely goal or two, to say nothing of his impact on the penalty kill. He could be one of those ‘missing piece’ type players that leads you to glory.

Daily Faceoff analyst Jon Goyens contributed to this report. Find him on Twitter: @gourmet_hockey

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