How big of an impact can Jonathan Toews make as a Trade Deadline acquisition?

Credit: © Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

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With just over six weeks remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.

Today we’re going to focus on Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews, who was No. 5 on our latest Trade Targets board last week.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 47 Days

JONATHAN TOEWS
Center, Chicago Blackhawks
Shoots: Left
Age: 34
Height: 6’2″ | Weight: 201 lbs.
Cap Hit: $10.5 million AAV
Term: Pending UFA
Trade Clauses: Full ‘no-trade’ and ‘no-move’ restrictions
Stats: 40 GP, 12 goals, 12 assists, 24 points, 18:02 avg TOI
Career: 15th season (all in Chicago), 1054 GP, 369 goals, 876 points, 19:38 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Clutch Player, Second/Third Line Center

For the vast majority of his career, Toews has fit neatly into Daily Faceoff’s “Franchise Player” archetype. There was a real debate in 2014 as to whether you’d start a franchise with Toews or Sidney Crosby. Then as he aged, Toews was a lock for the “Clutch” archetype. Clutch is code word for Selke, they’re the classic ‘200-foot’ players who do everything well. That fits because Toews is a Selke winner and four-time finalist, forever a true pain in the ass to play against. But he didn’t make our Top 20 Clutch Players for this season and that leaves teams wondering: What is he at this stage of his career? The answer is likely as a second or third-line center who still dominates the faceoff dot and can contribute to both special teams units.

Scouting Report

Without question, Toews is best known for his combination of skill, smarts, relentless compete and toughess. He has elite, innate hockey sense and understands where and when to arrive to be effective in all three zones. Coupled with his willingness to compete, that IQ has made him an incredibly difficult player to play against for the majority of his career.

From a skill perspective, Toews has good vision and finds options through defenders both off the rush and in tight spaces once the forecheck is established. He accomplishes that by using his body well to shield pucks, allowing him to make small area plays or extend the play long enough to pass around opponents. His hands are also an asset when he is net-front in the offensive zone. Toews can quickly corral second-chance opportunities and deposit them, or extend the scoring area by tipping shots from distance. Four of the seven power play goals Toews has scored this year have been deflections.

Valuable particularly during playoff time, Toews is also an elite faceoff man, winning draws around 60 percent of the time over the last two seasons. Given his acumen, compete and willingness to sacrifice, he can become a major matchup problem for any team when used in the right situation.

Buyer Beware

Toews was never the smoothest skater, but he was effective because his sense and effort allowed him to get to where he needed to be. He can still rev it up early in shifts or games, but as shifts wear on, teams have noticed he breaks down and becomes far less effective at killing plays, transporting the puck, or being an effective option on offense. Similarly, Toews started hot this season with seven goals and nine points in his first 11 games of the year, and then slowed down to post just four goals and 11 points in his next 25 games.

His lack of pace is evident this year in the fact that he has taken and given fewer hits than previous seasons, which teams surmise he is either conserving himself, or simply isn’t getting where he needs to be on-time in order to engage.

Toews’ lack of physicality compared to his earlier years is also hurting his even-strength scoring ability. Toews and his most common linemates this season, Philipp Kurashev and Taylor Raddysh, fall on the plus-side of shots for and against relative to their teammates, but when you watch closely, those shots are mostly from the perimeter. Last season, Toews had 27 points at even-strength in larger part because he was getting to the scoring area at a more regular clip and generating scoring chances – especially high-danger scoring chances – at a might higher rate.

Some of that relative drop-off can be attributed to the difference in quality of his linemates. Last season, Toews played with almost everyone on the roster at some point, but also significant stretches with Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat and Brandon Hagel. And while that’s a big change to Kurashev and Raddysh, the bigger issue for Toews this season is that he is also not getting where he needs to go on-time anymore, leading to only three goals and seven assists at even-strength.

Lastly, while Toews is never on the plus-side of the penalty differential, he is on pace to take more penalties this season than any since 2015-16.

Potential Fits

Colorado Avalanche: With a championship pedigree joining the defending champs, Toews would slot in perfectly as a second-line center and bump J.T. Compher and Alex Newhook further down the lineup. He would also feature well in the bumper spot on the power play. While second line may be a significant ask for Toews at this juncture of his career, the bet is a fresh start and chance at a fourth Stanley Cup is the juice he needs to turn back the clock for a few months.
Edmonton Oilers: The three-time champion and Western Canadian kid could give the Oilers exactly what they need to get over the hump. Like Duncan Keith was on the back-end, Toews could provide leadership, a steadying influence, and set an example that Edmonton can carry forth. He can also contribute on the penalty kill, in the faceoff dot, and be a miserable pain to play against.
Carolina Hurricanes: Just like in Colorado, the Hurricanes are asking too much of Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Paul Stastny at this point in the game. Toews could take a lot of weight off those shoulders. And to put him between Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov? Big upgrade over Kurashev and Raddysh. Plus, he fits Carolina’s overall strategy as his price point likely wouldn’t be at a huge premium.
The Minnesota Wild make sense as a team looking for a center. The Dallas Stars could also use Toews as a potential catalyst for an increase in depth scoring. And after scratching Dylan Strome and Lars Eller in back-to-back games, the Washington Capitals could use an upgrade down the middle. But none of these three fits is quite as clean cut as the first three on the list.

Sizing up the Market

Other centers available: Bo Horvat (Vancouver), Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis), Sean Monahan (Montreal), Max Domi (Chicago), Jack Roslovic (Columbus), Derek Grant (Anaheim), Nick Bonino (San Jose), Nick Bjugstad (Arizona).

Potentially available centers: Dylan Larkin (Detroit), Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia), Sam Reinhart (Florida), Dylan Strome (Washington), Noel Acciari (St. Louis).

Pending free agents this summer: Horvat, Larkin, O’Reilly, Strome, Monahan, Domi, Bonino, Bjugstad.

Comparable Trade Returns

One thing to keep in mind: Moving Toews to any contending team will almost surely require a third-party broker. That will also increase the acquisition cost.

Ceiling: Giroux to Florida

March 19, 2021
To Florida: Claude Giroux, German Rubtsov, Connor Bunnaman, 2024 5th Round Pick
To Philadelphia: 2024 1st Round Pick, 2023 3rd Round Pick, Owen Tippett

It’s a good comparable because like Giroux, Toews has the same agent and very similarly structured contract. But most observers would say Giroux had a bit more game left in the tank last year than Toews has shown this year. Maybe part of that is team and teammate-based. But Giroux has proven this year in Ottawa that he’s far ahead of where Toews is now.

Mid-Range: Giordano to Toronto

March 20, 2022
To Toronto: Mark Giordano, Colin Blackwell
To Seattle: 2022 2nd Round Pick (Niklas Kokko), 2023 2nd Round Pick, 2024 3rd Round Pick

Not exactly apples-to-apples because they play different positions. Giordano is older, but he was at the very top of his position in 2018-19 as the Norris Trophy winner. Toews’ last individual achievement was a runner-up for Selke in 2015, the same year he captured his third Cup. Both are or have been captains. The Kraken got a second-round pick for Giordano, plus a second to retain half. (The third-round pick is for Blackwell.)

Floor: Keith to Edmonton; Carter to Pittsburgh

July 12, 2021
To Edmonton: Duncan Keith, Tim Soderlund
To Chicago: Caleb Jones, 2022 3rd Round Pick (Jeremy Langlois)

Chicago has already mapped out what trading one of its franchise pillars might look like. For Keith, Jones was considered a prospect with potential for more, while the third-round pick had conditions to improve to a second if the Oilers advanced to the Stanley Cup Final. They fell four wins short. And Toews is likely to receive a bit more than Keith.

April 12, 2021
To Pittsburgh: Jeff Carter
To Los Angeles: 2022 3rd Round Pick (Lucas Edmonds), 2023 3rd Round Pick

At the time, it was reported as a third and fourth for Carter, but both picks had conditions to move up to a second and third. The fourth did convert to a third, making it two thirds. Carter, who is three years older than Toews, also took some convincing to go to Pittsburgh and held a full ‘no-trade.’ His rejuvenation that season is a reminder of what might be possible if Toews sees a trade as a shot in the arm.

Summary

Any acquiring team surely understands that the Toews they’re receiving in 2023 is not the Toews of yesteryear, the Toews who will one day have a statue outside of United Center. However, he is still a player that if deployed properly, can make a contender tougher to play against and bring elements to the dressing room that teams crave in May and June.

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