If the Capitals decide to sell, what could they get in return at the deadline?

Credit: © Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!

_____

It’s the Final Countdown. We’re in the single digits now, just over a week away until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today, we’re going to examine the Washington Capitals, who may have transitioned from a buyer to a seller as their play has slipped and they’ve slid in the standings.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 9 days

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Current Record: 28-25-6, 62 points (12th in Eastern Conference)
General Manager: Brian MacLellan (9th season)
Head Coach: Peter Laviolette (3rd season)
Captain: Alex Ovechkin (10th full season)

Last Year: Lost to Florida Panthers (4-2) in Eastern Conference quarterfinal.

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 2.97 per game (23rd)
Goals Against: 2.90 per game (13th)
Power Play: 20.4 percent (20th)
Penalty Kill: 81.5 percent (10th)

Key Additions
C Dylan Strome – Signed to 1-year, $3.5 million contract on July 14 (since extended 5 x $5 million)
LW Sonny Milano – Signed to 1-year, $750,000 contract on Oct. 15 (since extended 3 x $1.9 million)
G Darcy Kuemper – Signed to 5-year, $26.25 million contract on July 13
G Charlie Lindgren – Signed to 3-year, $3.3 million contract on July 13
RW Nicolas Aube-Kubel – Claimed off waivers from Toronto on Nov. 5

Key Subtractions
G Ilya Samsonov – Signed 1-year, $1.8 million contract with Toronto on July 13
G Vitek Vanecek – Traded to New Jersey on July 8
G Pheonix Copley – Signed 1-year, $825,000 contract with Los Angeles on July 13
RD Justin Schultz – Signed 2-year, $6 million contract with Seattle on July 13
RW Brett Leason – Claimed on waivers by Anaheim on Oct. 10
LW Axel Jonsson-Fjallby – Claimed on waivers by Winnipeg on Oct. 10

Trainer’s Table
RD John Carlson – Out since Dec. 23 after taking a shot to the side of the head (LTIR)
LW Alex Ovechkin – Away from the team since Feb. 12 (person reasons), expected back soon
LW Carl Hagelin – Missed entire season, underwent hip resurfacing surgery, out for the year
LW Anthony Mantha – Left Tuesday night’s game with an “upper-body” injury
RW Connor Brown – Suffered torn ACL on Oct. 17, out for the season

Injuries have been a significant part of the Capitals’ storyline this season. Carlson (25 games and counting), Tom Wilson (49 games), Nicklas Backstrom (43 games) and T.J. Oshie (18 games) have all missed major chunks of the season – and when some of them have returned, they haven’t been close to skating at the level that we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the last number of years.

Deadline Posture: Sellers

GM Brian MacLellan and the Washington Capitals are in a tough spot. On the one hand, they have a generational talent in Alex Ovechkin, one of the game’s all-time greats chasing down history as he attempts to shatter Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record. Ovechkin is 82 goals back of the Great One’s 894. If the Great Eight can maintain his 0.61 goals per game pace, he’ll hit Gretzky’s mark in another 135 games, which is well within the window of the five-year extension he signed with the Capitals in 2021.

As Ovechkin pursues immortality, the Capitals have vowed to surround him with a competitive team on the ice. In an ideal world, they’d like to both win and have the greatest goal scorer of all-time as a lifetime Capital, giving fans a reason other than the record to enter Capital One Arena.

The problem is the Capitals have not lived up to their end of the bargain this year. In actuality, when sorted by points percentage, the Caps sit in 12th place in the Eastern Conference. Their traditionally excellent offense and power play have lagged. They are 19th in goals scored at even-strength, behind non-playoff teams like the Blues, Sabres, Flames and Canucks. They generate scoring chances, and specifically high-danger chances, just above a league average rate. Their once dominant power play is just 20th in the league – and injuries to their key components, specifically Carlson, Backstrom and Oshie, all offer a large explanation for the drop off.

For a team that relies on its offense to keep teams on their heels, the Capitals don’t have their horse this season. Ovechkin is the one player who has held up his end of the bargain with 54 points in 54 games. Lots of other players, including Evgeny Kuznetsov, are having down seasons – among the group of players who haven’t missed significant time. When back in the lineup, the effects of Backstrom’s surgery have been apparent. He struggles to generate pace and has been relegated to a power play specialist. The Anthony Mantha trade was not a good one for the Capitals – and that’s with Jakub Vrana sitting out most of the season for the Red Wings. The Capitals look old, slow and banged up.

Now, there are questions about where Washington goes next.

Coach Peter Laviolette is quietly coaching in the final year of his contract. All eight of the defensemen currently in the Capitals’ lineup are pending free agents. Washington was so desperate to keep bargain finds Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano that they signed them to long-term extensions that kick in next year, and raised eyebrows around the league. The trouble is now Washington already has $65 million committed to next year’s cap to just 10 players.

The Capitals feel like a team in transition, whether that was designed by MacLellan with the current salary cap structure and string of expiring contracts – or not. With nine days to go until the deadline, and 11 pending unrestricted free agents, it would be no surprise to see MacLellan work the phones to retool this roster.

With a weaker free agent class this offseason and a limited prospect pool to draw from, being competitive while Ovechkin chases Gretzky is going to be increasingly hard. MacLellan can aid his own pursuits by definitively selling off pieces over the next week. What can they get? It depends on how aggressive they want to be.

Comparable Trade Returns

For LD Dmitry Orlov:

April 10, 2021
To Tampa Bay: David Savard, Brian Lashoff
To Columbus: 2021 1st Round Pick (Nolan Allan), 2022 3rd Round Pick (Jordan Dumais), 50% retained
To Detroit: 2021 4th Round Pick (Jakub Demek)

There is no doubt that Orlov is the Capitals’ most valuable trade commodity. Talks between the Caps and Orlov’s camp have been cordial, but no progress has been made on an extension. The belief is Washington would ultimately like to keep Orlov for next year and beyond, but if that doesn’t materialize, they could cash in with a significant haul.

If the price for Gavrikov is going to land in the Savard range, Orlov is better. He is a strong defender who can move the puck effectively and contribute on both special team units. He’s shown the ability to play steady in the postseason and would add to any contender’s Top 4.

For RW Garnet Hathaway:

March 16, 2022
To Calgary: Calle Jarnkrok
To Seattle: 2022 2nd Round Pick (David Goyette), 2023 3rd Round Pick, 2024 7th Round Pick, 50 percent retained

This return might surprise some, but teams find Hathaway to be an extremely useful player who flies a bit under the radar because his point production isn’t gaudy. Hathaway doesn’t provide the positional flexibility Jarnkrok did, but would add great depth and secondary scoring. He can play on both special teams units and add an element of grit and toughness to a team preparing for the postseason battle.

For C Lars Eller:

March 21, 2022
To Washington: Johan Larsson
To Arizona: 2023 3rd Round Pick, 50 percent retained

Eller’s game has dipped this season in a significant way. He was a critical cog in the Capitals’ playoff run in 2018, but that playoff experience would be a luxury for a team to add as a fourth line center, which is where he is trending at this point. The Capitals may be able to squeeze out more than a third, but that is a fair floor price. Larsson left to play in Sweden this season after a six-game playoff run with the Caps.

For RD Nick Jensen:

March 21, 2022
To Edmonton: Brett Kulak
To Montréal: William Lagesson, 2022 2nd Round Pick (Lane Hutson), 2024 7th Round Pick, 50% retained

Jensen can move the puck effectively, and while he is prone to make the occasional mistake, he competes hard and would be effective on a contender’s bottom pair with the flexibility to take on additional minutes if a team runs into injuries. He is a direct comparable to Kulak for many reasons.

For RD Trevor van Riemsdyk:

March 21, 2022
To N.Y. Rangers: Justin Braun
To Philadelphia: 2023 3rd Round Pick

Van Riemsdyk is steady, simple, effective. He is a no frills, third-pair defender in the NHL who is comfortable in his own skin. He is rarely rattled. He has a lot of similar traits to Braun, though he is younger and more mobile than Braun was last year. He is also more effective. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Washington get a bit more than that. But there are no recent comps outside of Kulak and Nick Leddy that brought back a second-round pick on the back-end.

Summary

Decisions, decisions. Capitals GM Brian MacLellan could try to deftly navigate a curve that few have successfully stickhandled, which is selling off while still attempting to give his team a chance to sneak into the playoffs. A lot of that might hinge on Washington’s internal injury reports about the status of Carlson and when he might be able to return. Or, MacLellan can rip the band-aid off and fight to live another day with this core. The clock is ticking.

____