Best NHL player prop bets (Jan. 31): Red-hot Thompson undervalued to score vs. Predators
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Friday night.
Tage Thompson Anytime Goalscorer: +170 Sports Interaction
Thompson will look to build on an incredible performance versus the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night, in which the Sabres superstar recorded three goals (four points) and an absurd +6 rating in just 15:40 of ice time. Thompson also has goals in four of the last five games, and 19 points over the last 16 games.
We have talked a lot in these articles about the fact that oddsmakers don’t seem to give Thompson enough credit for being one of the league’s best goal-scorers, and that looks to be the case once again Friday with Thompson priced at +170 to score in a favorable matchup versus the Nashville Predators.
Thompson has scored at least once in 46.6% of games this season, yet Friday’s price of +170 suggests he will score just 37.04% of the time.
While Thompson’s current 17.6% shooting percentage seems unsustainable, that may not necessarily be the case, as 17.6% is actually pretty close to what he has averaged dating back to his breakout 2021-22 season, if you exclude last season’s 11.8% shooting percentage, a year in which he played through a significant wrist injury.
Over the last 10 games, the Predators have allowed 3.50 goals against per game, and with backup goaltender Justus Annunen likely to start, they become an even more appealing target. Annunen has played to an .894 save percentage and 2.95 GAA in 20 appearances this season.
Thomas Harley Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +135 Sports Interaction
The Dallas Stars defensive core suffered a critical loss Wednesday, as Miro Heiskanen suffered a significant knee injury versus the Vegas Golden Knights, and is set to be sidelined for a significant period of time. Heiskanen’s loss opens the door for Harley to play on the team’s top power play unit and top pairing, and he will likely play huge minutes in Friday’s matchup versus the Vancouver Canucks.
Harley scored 15 goals in 79 games last season with the Stars, and he has more than enough offensive upside to cover Heiskanen’s absence on the top power play unit. Harley likes to shoot the puck, as his 12.86 SA/60 is quite close to Heiskanen’s average of 13.68.
Harley has also averaged 19.84 shot attempts per 60 on the power play this season, and that’s mainly been skating on a second unit which is less effective overall.
He’s gone over 2.5 shots in just five of the last 12 games, but at +135, I believe we are getting a good price to back the idea that his shot volume will rise significantly in Heiskanen’s absence.
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