What could Andrei Kuzmenko’s next contract look like with Vancouver Canucks?

Credit: © James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports

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With just over six weeks remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.

Today we’re going to focus on Vancouver Canucks rookie forward Andrei Kuzmenko.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 45 Days

ANDREI KUZMENKO
Left Wing, Vancouver Canucks
Shoots: Right
Age: 26
Height: 5’11” | Weight: 194 lbs.
Cap Hit: $950,000 AAV
Term: Pending UFA
Trade Clauses: No restrictions
Stats: 42 GP, 17 goals, 21 assists, 38 points, 15:55 avg TOI
Career: Rookie season, signed with Vancouver on July 13.

Archetype and Ideal Role

Net-Front Scorer, Second Line Winger

Kuzmenko burst onto the scene this season as a relative unknown, a highly recruited undrafted free agent from Russia’s Kontinental Hockey League, where teams could take a risk-free swing because his salary ($950,000) and term (one-year) were capped in the entry-level system.

Kuzmenko has delivered for Vancouver and might find himself in next season’s Daily Faceoff Archetype Rankings for Net-Front Scorer, since almost all 17 of his goals have been scored within five feet of the crease. His production is evenly distributed between power play and even-strength. That means his ideal role is to complement skilled players and use his offensive instincts to get to the scoring area, be a target for quick seam passes, and finish off second chances.

Canucks president Jim Rutherford said Monday that Vancouver is active in negotiations to re-sign Kuzmenko. Let’s examine his case:

Scouting Report

Kuzmenko has elite offensive sense, particularly without the puck. He can see and feel defensive structure and is excellent at finding soft space, especially around the crease for quick strike tips and easy tap-ins. He is also tenacious at the net front. He shows little fears and absorbs contact to win space and deposit pucks when opportunity presents itself.

With the puck, Kuzmenko can protect it well, using his thicker frame to fend off defenders and make small area plays and extend sequences. Coupled with soft hands, this makes him a consistent down-low threat, which is highlighted when playing on a line or unit with more creative offensive players. Kuzmenko is adept at knowing where they are and how to find them with the puck to create scoring chances in-tight.

Lastly, Kuzmenko possesses a strong shot. He can quickly and seamlessly change the angle on his release to beat goalies from mid-range when required.

Buyer Beware

Kuzmenko is not a naturally creative player. He can make small area plays, use his body to shield the puck and then move it to nearby teammates, but he rarely possesses the puck. He doesn’t create time and space and then deliver it to his teammates in better attacking positions.

Teams have keyed in on the fact that Kuzmenko also does not transport the puck. He relies on more creative, faster teammates that generate pace and space, and then utilizes his smarts to arrive in the scoring area at the right time to finish off their hard work. That isn’t a knock. Players that can finish are valuable and many like him have made a nice living in the NHL doing that. But Kuzmenko does not have great acceleration, even though he is a strong skater. He is efficient and purposeful, but his lack of pace hurts his ability to be more of a threat off the rush.

Kuzmenko is not a committed defender in his own end. He can be passive with both his positioning and his willingness to make stops. Teams noticed that he can frequently get caught puck-watching and he tends to circle rather than attacking and denying space, struggling also to recover lane assignments with purpose. His stick is late or non-existent in dangerous areas and he’s been burned as pucks get seamed through and around him.

Lastly, Kuzmenko is more opportunistic than relentless. He can be tenacious in the scoring area, but when he does arrive on-time on the forecheck, he looks for support and then vacates to the higher danger areas rather than taking it upon himself to win possession and drive plays.

Kuzmenko’s Next Deal

For the most part, Kuzmenko’s exact situation is unprecedented in the NHL’s salary cap era. Teams will be leery of significant term based on one season on his resume, but if they are willing to commit, there are a few recent comparables:

Floor: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky
Seattle Kraken
Signed July 13, 2022 by Ron Francis
Age at signing: 27
5 years x $5.5 million = $27 million

Burakovsky netted 61 points in 80 games last year for the Avalanche. Kuzmenko turns 27 in February, so they will be the same age at signing. Kuzmenko is on pace for 74 points this year, so this deal is probably the floor of what he could likely expect.

Mid-Range: Josh Bailey

Josh Bailey
New York Islanders
Signed Feb. 23, 2018 by Garth Snow
Age at signing: 28
6 years x $5 million = $30 million

Bailey was on-pace for 70-plus points in the middle of his 27-year-old season when Snow jumped the shark and extended Bailey for six years. Only once in the years since has Bailey scored more points than assists he had in that 2017-18 campaign.

Ceiling: Valeri Nichushkin

Valeri Nichushkin
Colorado Avalanche
Signed July 11, 2022 by Chris MacFarland
Age at signing: 27
8 years x $6.125 million = $49 million

Nichushkin had 52 points in 62 games for the Avalanche last season and was such a critical, driving force with nine goals in their run to the Stanley Cup. They are two entirely different players; Nichushkin is a tank. At his current clip, Kuzmenko is on pace to net more points on a non-playoff team. One could make the argument that even though Nichushkin had been in the NHL before, he’d never shown beyond last season that he could be that type of player with any consistency, and that like Kuzmenko, his contract was based on one year of work. But it’s difficult to imagine Kuzmenko in a stratosphere near Nichushkin in term and total dollars based on their differences in style and play.

The One-Year Option

One-year, $7 million

If the term and total dollars are disappointing, don’t entirely discount Kuzmenko potentially signing a one-year deal at a higher AAV to go out and prove again next season that his point total can be duplicated. At that point, he’d be in line for a much larger payday.

Summary

There is no doubt that Kuzmenko can help a team if deployed correctly, in the right situations with the right players. He has a knack for the net and gets into the dirty areas to score goals. However, he is a complementary player who is best suited at the net-front on the power play and used in sheltered situations in the offensive zone at even-strength.

What does all of this mean for the Canucks and their retool? Rutherford has consistently mentioned two things: 1) Vancouver’s need for salary cap flexibility and 2) their desire to acquire players who are 25 years and under. Re-signing Kuzmenko goes against both of those needs. He doesn’t technically fit their age scheme in remaking the roster and if you are a believer in age charts, he has already passed through his prime. The Canucks took a chance, won the Kuzmenko sweepstakes and have been rewarded for their scouting in a strong season. They’re playing now with house money. Perhaps they’re better off seizing on Kuzmenko’s trade value as a cheap expiring contract, rather than adding another expensive contract to the books for years to come for a scoring winger who does not drive play on his own.

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